In 2025-26, Wisconsin basketball suffered an early NCAA Tournament exit last season and then lost its two best players. Can the Badgers use this year’s talent to make it past the first round?
Wisconsin basketball had an unexpected end to its season with a heartbreaking 83-82 loss to the High Point Panthers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They were a victim of the infamous No. 5 vs. No. 12 seed matchup. This was especially hard on the Badgers as it was their second first-round exit at the No. 5 seed in the past three years.
This is not to say, though, that Wisconsin did not put up a fight during this final game, but it was a go-ahead fast-break layup with 11 seconds left that would put the nail in the coffin for their season. Even after the loss, head coach Greg Gard discussed the growth he has seen in his players, especially in John Blackwell, Nick Boyd, and Austin Rapp, whom he said have each grown in their leadership abilities and in how they handle adversity.
The Badgers have posted two fifth-place finishes and one third-place finish in the Big Ten Conference over the past three years. Additionally, in prior years under Gard, they’ve had two first-place finishes and three other top-four finishes in the Big Ten. Season after season, Wisconsin has surpassed Big Ten preseason expectations. The Badgers were predicted to finish seventh in the conference during the preseason media poll and finished fifth. They made it to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals before losing to the Michigan Wolverines, AKA the 2026 National Champions- so a reasonable loss, to say the least.
Last year, the Badgers’ offense worked thanks to college basketball’s best backcourt duo of Boyd and Blackwell. For example, an insane overtime comeback win over Illinois in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament proved the duo’s skills. The Fighting Illini led by 15 points with just over 11 minutes to go. The tournament was held at the United Center in Chicago, so there were plenty of boos coming from the blue-and-orange crowd. Wisconsin put up 48 points in the second half to send it into overtime. The reason they got into extra time was purely that Boyd and Blackwell combined for 41 of those points. A big part of their chemistry was due to Gard’s idea to pit the two players against each other during practices and scrimmages.
The season prior, 2024-25, the preseason Big Ten media poll listed Wisconsin tied for 12th; however, Wisconsin proved them wrong by finishing 3rd in the conference. That season, behind excellent players John Tonje and Blackwell, they also made it to the Big Ten Tournament championship game, ironically enough bowing out to Michigan just like they would the next season.
So yes, Gard has been a consistent coach for the Badgers, but just hasn’t been able to will the team to victory. They find themselves in a position where, yes, they have the talent and the ability to put victories in the win column, but have fallen short of the very top a few times. This season, Wisconsin lost eight of its 14 players heading into the 2026-27 season. Along with this, to offset the departures, Gard added three transfer portal additions and five incoming freshmen. International recruits.
Eian Elmer from Miami (OH) headlines the transfer portal class. Following him are Trey Autry from George Washington and Victory Onuetu from Hofstra. Each is a player who will fit in nicely with Wisconsin’s playing style. These transfers have big shoes to fill. The biggest loss this team faces heading into the 2026-27 season is the Blackwell-Boyd guard combo. Blackwell transferred to Duke while Boyd exhausted his eligibility. Forward Aleksas Bieliauskas, transferring to South Carolina, is also a notable loss. He was a reliable frontcourt piece who started the final 24 games of the season as a freshman. Also departing are wing Andrew Rohde and guard Braeden Carrington.
The Badgers lost some big-name players. Elmer will step into that starting wing spot. He’s been right on the money from beyond the arc during his three collegiate years, as he has recorded a 41.3% three-point percentage. The two guards filling in for Blackwell and Boyd likely won’t be the “iconic duo” that carried the team last season, but they should fare pretty well. This includes Autry and incoming freshman Owen Foxwell. At forward, Rapp will return to the lineup along with junior Nolan Winter.
Off the bench comes guard Jack Janicki, followed by the Hofstra transfer Onuetu. Next come players from the sophomore class, including guards Hayden Jones and Zach Kinziger with center Will Garlock. The two final freshmen, guard Jackson Ball and wing LaTrevion Fenderson, will round out the reserves.
While yes, Wisconsin basketball has defied their lower preseason rankings in previous seasons, losing considerable production, the truth is it’s difficult to place them super high. If the transfers live up to their expectations and the talented returners can prove that last season’s success didn’t just stem from a couple of players who have now departed, then this Wisconsin team should fare well this season. The question is, will they be successful in doing so?
Head coach: Greg Gard (12th season overall, all at Wisconsin)
2025-26 record: 24-11 (14-6)
2026 postseason finish: Loss to High Point (83-82) in first round of the NCAA Tournament
Notable departures:
- Nick Boyd (20.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.3 APG, 48.0% FG, 36.5% 3P)
- John Blackwell (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, 43.0% FG, 38.9% 3P)
- Aleksas Bieliauskas (4.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.9 APG, 43.1% FG, 34.6% 3P)
- Andrew Rhode (5.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, 36.3% FG, 31.8% 3P)
- Braeden Carrington (8.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 40.8% FG, 40.1% 3P)
Notable non-conference games:
- vs. Seton Hall (Nov. 19) – Baha Mar Championship
- vs. NC State OR Murray State (Nov. 20) – Baha Mar Championship
- at Marquette (Dec. 5)
- vs. Villanova (Dec. 12) – Philly Hoops Showdown in Philadelphia
- vs. Auburn (Dec. 19) – Bad Boy Mowers Series in Nashville
- vs. Colorado State (Dec. 30)
Projected Rotation
PG: Owen Foxwell (6-2, 180, Fr.)
247Sports Composite No. 110 ranked recruit
SG: Trey Autry (6-4, 210, Sr.)
2025-26 stats: 11.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 38.5 3P% (George Washington)
SF: Eian Elmer (6-6, 215, Sr.)
2025-26 stats: 12.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 49.8 FG%, 42.9 3P% (Miami-OH)
PF: Austin Rapp (6-10, 238, Jr.)
2025-26 stats: 9.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 36.3 3P%
C: Nolan Winter (7-0, 235, Sr.)
2025-26 stats: 13.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1,2 BPG, 56.9 FG%
6: Jack Janicki (6-5, 200, Jr.)
2-25-26 stats: 2.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, 32.3 FG%
7: Victory Onuetu (6-10, 235, Sr.)
2025-26 stats: 4.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.0 BPG 56.6 FG% (Hofstra)
8: Hayden Jones (6-6, 198, So.)
2025-26 season: 1.7 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 0.4 APG, 61.5 FG%
9: Zach Kinziger (6-3, 185, So.)
2025-26 stats: 1.3 PPG, 0.3 RPG, 0.6 APG, 32.0 FG%
10: Will Garlock (7-0, 243, So.)
2025-26 stats: 1.1 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 0.7 APG, 72.0 FG%
Wisconsin basketball team MVP: Nolan Winter
Winter is going to be Wisconsin’s guy this season. During the 2025-26 season, he was a consistent player who could play off his guards and be a primary scoring option over extended stretches. Winter also possessed strong defensive capabilities, especially when finishing possessions on the glass.
This will be Winter’s year to be the team’s top player, on both offense and defense. Last season, the forward did struggle in one area, and that was getting to the stripe- he didn’t make it to the free throw line once in four of Wisconsin’s final five matchups before the Big Ten Tournament. Even so, it wasn’t a pressing issue all season; however, if he is going to be the alpha on this Wisconsin team, he needs to round out all the edges.
During his 2025-26 campaign, Winter greatly improved his rebounding and consistently found himself in the right spot. He is a bright light for the Badgers on offense, having recorded 12 double-doubles this season. With the loss of Blackwell and Boyd, Winter will need to take another step forward if this team wants to make it to the NCAA Tournament. Judging by his collegiate progression so far, it is more than likely that Winter has all the capabilities to do so.
Wisconsin basketball make-or-break player: Eian Elmer
Elmer was a key to Miami OH’s historic undefeated regular season- he started all 34 games. Averaging 12.7 points and 42.9% from beyond the arc, Elmer has proven he is a threat on offense. He led the RerHawks in both 3-pointers made (72) and 3-point percentage. This offensive production was backed by a 49.8% field-goal efficiency and 75.8% from the stripe. Not only is he a threat on offense, but he also recorded 42 steals and 23 blocks.
Gard has praised Elmer, specifically for his size, power, and skill. He believes he’ll thrive in the Wisconsin system he is walking into. Elmer can certainly serve as the “glue guy” (pun intended) for Wisconsin, and he should step in nicely to the roster spot that has now opened up at the wing position.
The question with Elmer- it’s obvious that the Big Ten and the MAC are tremendously different in terms of competition, environment, pressure, coverage, etc. A big discussion when the time came last season to decide whether Miami OH should even make the NCAA Tournament revolved around this. Yes, the team finished 32-2 (18-0) under head coach Travis Steele; however, some didn’t see them as more deserving than other teams of one of the final tournament spots simply because of the difference in their competition all season. Take the Indiana Hoosiers, for example. They were the fourth team left out of the NCAA Tournament last season; however, they were playing teams like Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, and Nebraska, all tournament teams that went on runs. Will Elmer be able to maintain his impressive stats against the Big Ten’s best? He is definitely Wisconsin’s make-or-break player for the 2-26-27 season.
Key statistic: Establish offense during non-conference play
The Big Ten slate has just been released for the entire conference, so the Badgers now have a clearer idea of what they need to do to succeed in their 2026-27 campaign. This will be patience. Not to sound like a broken record, but losing their top two players, Blackwell and Boyd, likely means that the team won’t be a main threat in the Big Ten, at least not right away.
If this team wants to end the season at the top of the Big Ten, they need to develop an offensive presence and rhythm in their non-conference games against Denver, Delaware, Fairfield, and Coastal Carolina. Having these more tame non-conference games should allow the Badgers to feel out what works well for them on offense and who the standouts will be on that end of the court before Big Ten play begins. Once the Badgers get past these four games, they don’t need to perfect their offense, but they do need to have it established before they face Marquette and Villanova. Once Big Ten play starts, it’s essential that the team is solid on this end of the court, as two of Wisconsin’s first three Big Ten opponents are Purdue and Illinois.
So this is where the patience comes in. The Badgers need to stay composed because they could drop a few early in conference play. This isn’t to say that they can’t be a tournament team if they do so; however, they can’t let a couple early losses impact the rest of their season. If they do, the rest of their campaign could easily go downhill.
Wisconsin basketball 2026-27 projections
Projected conference finish: 11th in the Big Ten
Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament round of 32 appearance
When will they ever learn? When will they ehhhh‐ver learn?