Florida State basketball enters Year Two of the post-Leonard Hamilton era in 2026. Is a return to the NCAA tournament in the cards for the ‘Noles?
The tradition continues! It’s another year of our countdown of the top 100 preseason teams in college basketball until the start of the season. Each day, we will reveal the next team until we reach the team slotted at number one. Up next: Florida State basketball.
If you consider the Florida State basketball program to be in a state of rebuild, last season must’ve felt a bit ahead of schedule. At one point 7-11 overall and 0-5 against ACC foes, the Seminoles found their mojo about halfway through January.
After a close defeat to Wake Forest on January 17, Luke Loucks’s team finished the regular season on a 10-3 stretch over their last 13 games, including victories on the road against Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. After taking down Cal in the first round of the ACC tournament, the Seminoles gave Duke everything they could handle before falling short 80-79 and missing the postseason.
Gone is almost all the roster, with the losses of star point guard Robert McCray V and draft pick Lajae Jones stinging most. However, as is often the case in this modern game, head coach Loucks was able to reload in the transfer portal.
At point, Missouri transfer Anthony Robinson II (from takes the reins from McCray, and he’ll almost certainly step into the starting position after three solid seasons with the Tigers. Backing him up is talented freshman Martay Barnes, who could start elsewhere but will likely benefit from learning behind Robinson for a year.
The lengthy Kameron Taylor comes to Tallahassee from UNC-Asheville, where he was named to the 2025-26 All-Big South team after averaging almost 19 points per game. He’ll likely be backed up by another freshman, Brandon Bass Jr. (feel old yet?) from Windermere, FL, just west of Orlando. Bass is ranked just outside of 247 Sports’s top-100 rankings.
Shon Abaev, who had a decent freshman season at Cincinnati, transferred in and will likely start at the wing. He started the first 12 games for the Bearcats last season but eventually settled into a bench role as the year went on. Returnee AJ Swinton will push him for minutes as the only player from last year’s Seminoles team to return to the program this year. Swinton averaged 4.5 PPG in 15.7 minutes of action per game with one start.
At the power forward position is Colorado transfer Sebastian Rancik, a nifty grab from the portal from Loucks. Tall but able to stretch the floor, the Seminoles will benefit from his presence this season. Backing him up is likely another freshman, Collin Paul, one of four freshmen expected to earn significant minutes this season.
The fourth freshman, of course, is center Marcis Ponder, who is already a grown man. Ponder is listed at seven feet and 285 pounds, and he’s ready for Power Five basketball immediately. Ponder is a true throwback to the Leonard Hamilton era as a bruising center. His backup will most likely be Wake Forest transfer Cooper Schwieger, who can be dependable in a reserve role.
Florida State basketball is headed in the right direction under head coach Luke Loucks, but time will tell if they’re ready to return to the NCAA tournament. The Seminoles are young, with just one senior (Robinson) and four freshmen in the rotation. The future is bright in Tallahassee, but this team might need some time to grow.
Head coach: Luke Loucks (2nd season, all at Florida State)
2025-26 record: 18-15 (10-8)
2026 postseason finish: None
Notable departures:
- Everyone except for AJ Swinton
Notable non-conference games:
- vs. Florida (Nov. 10)
- at Tennessee (Dec. 1)
- vs. Texas A&M (Dec. 12) – Houston
- vs. Houston (Dec. 20) – Jacksonville, FL
Projected Rotation
PG: Anthony Robinson II (6-3, 185, Sr.)
2025-26 stats: 8.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.6 SPG (Missouri)
SG: Kameron Taylor (6-7, 185, Jr.)
2025-26 stats: 18.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.0 APG (UNC-Asheville)
SF: Shon Abaev (6-8, 210, So.)
2025-26 stats: 7.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.1 APG (Cincinnati)
PF: Sebastian Rancik (6-11, 220, Jr.)
2025-26 stats: 12.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, 86.0 FT% (Colorado)
C: Marcis Ponder (7-0, 285, Fr.)
247Sports Composite No. 44 ranked recruit
6: AJ Swinton (6-6, 220, Jr.)
2025-26 stats: 4.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.0 SPG
7: Martay Barnes (6-2, 165, Fr.)
247Sports Composite No. 89 ranked recruit
8: Cooper Schwieger (6-10, 235, Sr.)
2025-26 stats: 5.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 0.9 APG, 34.3 3PT% (Wake Forest)
9: Brandon Bass Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
247Sports Composite No. 115 ranked recruit
10: Collin Paul (6-7, 225, Fr.)
247Sports Composite No. 132 ranked recruit
Florida State basketball team MVP: Anthony Robinson II
Florida State basketball’s biggest portal pickup was bringing home Anthony Robinson II, a Tallahassee native. He spent his first three seasons with former Florida State assistant Dennis Gates at Missouri, where he had some up-and-down stretches of production with real flashes of potential.
While he has yet to average double-digit scoring over the course of a season, Robinson’s specialty is on the defensive side of the ball. In the 2024-25 season, he ranked second in the SEC with an average of 2.0 SPG in just 23.0 MPG and led the conference in steal percentage. For his efforts, Robinson was named to the SEC All-Defensive team after the season.
Offensively, that season saw him place 10th among qualified players with a 124.9 offensive rating and seventh in the SEC with a 26.0 assist percentage. However, Robinson’s production fell in his junior season despite a slight jump in minutes, as his shooting touch hit a cold streak and he was eventually relegated to a bench role towards the end of the season. (Where his three-point shooting improved a bit.)
Now undoubtedly a starter and the most experienced player on the Florida State basketball roster, Robinson has a lot of responsibility on his shoulders, and his success will likely correlate with the team’s success. We’re betting that he’ll recover his production from his sophomore season.
Florida State basketball make-or-break player: Sebastian Rancik
Rancik transfers in from Colorado, having spent the first two seasons of his collegiate career with the Buffs. He served a reserve role in his freshman season but started 26 games as a sophomore last season. Almost seven feet tall, the Slovakia native saw almost all of his per game stats double from his first to second season, as well as his clips from deep and from the line improve.
He’s the likely starter at the four spot for Luke Loucks, as Rancik really only faces competition for playing time from freshman Collin Paul and Wake Forest transfer Cooper Schwieger. Florida State basketball needs some production from their forwards, and they’ll be relying on Rancik plenty this season.
Key statistic: Opponent rebound totals
It’s slightly unfair to compare the peak of the Leonard Hamilton era to Florida State basketball’s first year without him, but the Seminoles were simply ineffective on the boards last season, and that would never happen under Hamilton. Despite a pedestrian 35.3 rebounds per game, Florida State basketball gave up 38.2 boards per contest, 345th in D-I.
Only one team gave up as many rebounds per game as Florida State and still made the tournament, and that team’s total (Alabama at 39.9) can be attributed to their lightning pace on offense. Of the 10 D-I teams that gave up less than 30.0 rebounds per game last season, nine of them ended up making the NCAA tournament. While no one stat is “most important”, there’s a clear correlation between limiting opponent rebounds and getting into the ‘W’ column.
Last season, Florida State basketball had eight instances of holding their opponent to less than 30 rebounds, and they were 7-1 in such contests. However, the Seminoles also had nine games in which their opponent recorded 40 rebounds or more, including a two-point loss to rival Florida in which the Gators managed 55 total rebounds. Not only is that a tremendous impediment for a defense, but it was likely the difference in the game.
This season, a lot of responsibility rests upon transfer forward Sebastian Rancik and freshman Marcis Ponder in terms of grabbing rebounds. Ponder is absolutely ACC-ready in terms of physicality. If you don’t believe me, go watch his highlights. Rancik has the size as well, standing at 6’11”, but his rebound averages from last season at Colorado leave something to be desired. He’ll need to step up if Florida State basketball wants to improve upon last season’s numbers.
Florida State basketball 2026-27 projections
Projected conference finish: 11th in the ACC
Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament second round exit