Northern Iowa basketball will play a St. John’s team on fire in the always fun 5-12 seed game. But can the Panthers find enough offense to make it a game?
The 12 seed over the 5 seed is always one of the most popular upset picks, with one happening in each of the last two seasons, and consistently in most NCAA Tournaments.
This Northern Iowa basketball team isn’t your typical 12 seed. They certainly weren’t one of the favorites to win the always tough MVC Tournament, but they got hot at the right time to win Arch Madness, and now will take on St. John’s all the way in San Diego, CA on Friday.
How they got there:
As I said before, UNI entered the MVC Tournament outside of the projected winners, as the 6 seed in Arch Madness. But they continued their defensive effort, holding Evansville to 59 points in round one and Illinois State to 52 in the quarterfinals.
From there, the Panthers’ offense started heating up, taking down 2-seed Bradley 73-69 in the semis, and not playing with their food in the championship, with an 84-69 win over UIC.
It now marks the ninth NCAA Tournament appearance for the Panthers. And they’ve won a few times, most famously with Ali Farokmanesh guiding them to the Sweet 16 in 2010.
- 1990: 14 seed, knocked off 3 seed Missouri in first round
- 2010: 9 seed, knocked off 8 seed UNLV in first round and #1 seed Kansas in second round
- 2015: 5 seed, knocked off 12 seed Wyoming in first round
- 2016: 11 seed, knocked off 6 seed Texas in first round
This is their first trip back to March Madness in a decade, but it’s important to let you know that the last three times UNI made it, they won at least a game, and Ben Jacobson’s been the coach for all of them.
General information:
Team: Northern Iowa
Location: Cedar Falls, IA
Record: 23-12 (11-9)
Head Coach: Ben Jacobson (20th season, all with Northern Iowa)
What to know about Northern Iowa basketball:
UNI is not a stranger to March Madness, making it there on Ben Jacobson’s watch 5 times in 20 years. They also made it every year from 2004-06 with Greg McDermott as the head coach. While the Sweet 16 is the furthest they’ve ever made it, it’s a Panthers program used to hearing its name called on Selection Sunday every so often.
And under Jacobson, UNI has historically had some of the best defenses in the country, most easily measured by opponents’ PPG:
- 2007-08: 60.3 (13th)
- 2009-10: 55.1 (2nd)
- 2010-11: 60.2 (13th)
- 2014-15: 54.6 (4th)
- 2017-18: 62.2 (4th)
- 2025-26: 61.3 (1st)
This is their first top-five finish in defense since the 2017-18 season, after having a rough stretch in between.
But it’s not just defense, because it’s also the tempo Northern Iowa basketball runs at. Out of 365 Division I teams, the Panthers had the third slowest, at 62.3 possessions per 40 minutes (adjusted for opponent). Compare that with their first round matchup, St. John’s, which ranks 68th at 69.6.
But slow tempo doesn’t necessarily equate to bad offense. The Panthers are a top-100 three-point shooting team, with Max Weisbrod, Ben Schweiger, Leon Bond III, Trey Campbell, and Kyle Pock all attempting at least two threes a game and knocking down 34% or better of their tries.
The Panthers also hit 55.8% of two-pointers and rank top 50 nationally in overall field goal percentage.
But there are some parts of their game that don’t bode well for an upset win over Big East Tournament champions, St. John’s. Fewer possessions means fewer rebounding opportunities, but at 359th in offensive rebounding, they’d better shoot well, or else the Johnnies will clear and run. They also rarely get to the free throw line, and when they do, are just a smidge under 70% as a team.
But the biggest thing in UNI’s favor? Rarely any turnovers! They take care of the basketball, coughing it up just 9.3 times per game.
NCAA Tournament prediction for Northern Iowa basketball: Round of 64 Exit
Seed: 12
While 12 seeds often have good luck against 5 seeds, St. John’s has been playing like a 2 or a 3 seed and might play extra motivated after the consensus is that they got the worst deal from the selection committee.
But the Red Storm is also a high-end defensive team, so even if UNI can limit St. John’s scoring, they’ll also find a way to keep the Panthers likely below 65 points.
Plus, I don’t think Rick Pitino’s about to go out in the first round after losing in the round of 32 last year.