High Point basketball is back in the tournament after beating Winthrop in the Big South Tournament championship game for the second year in a row. Can they pull off an upset in March?
Last season, High Point basketball made it to the NCAA Tournament and lost to Purdue as a 13 seed. Head coach Alan Huss left for Creighton, where he is set to take over for Greg McDermott whenever he moves on. And in came Flynn Clayman, who has High Point at 30-4 and is ready to pull off an upset, heading into March Madness on a 14-game winning streak.
How they got there:
High Point ran through its Big South schedule, losing just a single game to Winthrop in the regular season. They got the 1 seed in the tournament, knocked off Gardner-Webb, and survived UNC Asheville before taking down Winthrop in the championship game on Sunday. This marks their second time ever making it to the big dance.
General information:
Team: High Point
Location: High Point, N.C.
Record: 30-4 (15-1)
Head Coach: Flynn Clayman (1st season)
What to know about High Point basketball:
High Point basketball is one of just two teams in D-I currently with 30 or more wins. Arizona, Duke, and Michigan will likely join that group soon, but for now, it’s just High Point and the undefeated Miami (OH) Redhawks. So how did High Point manage to reach that mark and make the tournament for the second year in a row? The Panthers make the most of their transition opportunities and cause havoc on defense.
Out of 365 D-I schools, High Point ranks sixth with 16.5 fast break points per game. In conference games, senior Terry Anderson is averaging 5.4 fast break points per game. Over the course of the season, Anderson is 23rd of all D-I players in fast break points. He leads High Point with 16.3 PPG, but look out for guard Rob Martin, too. Martin has scored 10+ points in 12 straight games, including a game-high 24 points in the win over Winthrop in the championship.
The Panthers mostly ran the table in the low-major Big South, with a stumble on the road to Winthrop in January being the only blemish on their conference record. In addition to good transition offense, the Panthers can create chaos on the perimeter on defense. They’re second in D-I with a 14.8% steal percentage, and lead the nation with 10.4 steals per game. Six Panthers average at least one steal per game. Martin and Conrad Martinez lead the team with 1.6 and 1.5 steals per game, respectively.
High Point doesn’t turn the ball over on its side of the court often, either. The Panthers have a turnover percentage of 11.4%, sixth in D-I. Cam’Ron Fletcher, former Kentucky Wildcat, Florida State Seminole, and Xavier Musketeer, is finally going to the NCAA Tournament in his sixth season of college basketball. That’s a really fun story, and he’s also a major reason why High Point is going to the tournament. He scored 19 points and collected 17 rebounds in the championship against Winthrop. Despite having a high usage rate of 24.3%, his individual turnover rate is only 9.4%.
NCAA Tournament prediction for High Point basketball: Round of 64 exit
Seed: 12
High Point’s lofty overall record will likely carry them into the 12 seed range, which is where the typical danger zone is for first round upsets. Everybody loves the 5-12 upset. Does High Point actually have the strength to pull it off, though?
The answer is yes. Paired against the right team, High Point certainly has a chance to bust some brackets with an upset in the first round. But in the non-conference portion of the schedule, High Point had two Q2 opportunities and lost them both. That’s in addition to two Q3 losses, and High Point didn’t challenge itself with any Power Five games. That could be because no Power Five teams wanted to schedule High Point after a solid season last year, but we can’t prove that.
Most of the teams along the 5 seed line are, no surprise, actually in the top half of Power Five teams in terms of limiting turnovers on offense. If there’s one team that could fall victim to High Point, it’s Tennessee, which commits almost 12 turnovers per game. But this team hasn’t been challenged by a serious contender all year, and it’s hard to say if they can rise to the occasion.