CBB Review prepares you for every conference tournament leading up to Selection Sunday on Mar. 15. Up next: The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.
For once, we aren’t looking at Drake as the favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference, and they may not even win a game. Instead, Belmont won the regular season crown by three games, and now the Bruins look to parlay that with a trip to March Madness.
But they won’t be able to skip freely onto the big dance. Bradley, Illinois State, and Murray State all pose serious threats to winning the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, and other teams look to play spoiler.
And while it may not be a two-bid league, three teams are in the top 100 in the NET Rankings as of Thursday morning, so the competition level is high for a mid-major bracket.
Arch Madness always delivers, doesn’t it?
2026 Missouri Valley Conference Awards
Player of the Year: Jaquan Johnson, Bradley
Freshman of the Year: Roman Domon, Murray State
Transfer of the Year: Fredrick King, Murray State
Coach of the Year: Ryan Miller, Murray State
First Team:
- G: Jaquan Johnson, Bradley (17.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.6 SPG, 40.3 3P%)
- G: Jalen Quinn, Drake (19.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, 36.4 3P%)
- G: Javon Jackson, Murray State (16.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 35.8 3P%)
- G: Tyler Lundblade, Belmont (15.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 41.0 3P%)
- C: Fredrick King, Murray State (13.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 0.8 APG, 2.0 BPG, 64.3 FG%)
Second Team:
- G: Quel’Ron House, Southern Illinois (14.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.7 SPG)
- G: Elijah Crawford, UIC (13.2 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG)
- F: Drew Scharnowski, Belmont (10.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, 68.4 FG%)
- F: Roman Domon, Murray State (14.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 49.6 FG%, 38.3 3P%)
- F: Chase Walker, Illinois State (13.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 53.7 FG%)
2026 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Simulation
First Round – Thursday, Mar. 5
8. Southern Illinois (16-15, 10-10) vs. 9. Drake (12-19, 6-14) – 4:30 p.m. on MVC TV Network and ESPN+
Drake has been the cream of the crop in the MVC over the past handful of years, but had a losing record for the first time since the 2016-17 season. Still, they’ve gotJalen Quinn, who led the conference in scoring. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Southern Illinois has one of the best defenses in the league, and has been on a tear ever since February, going 7-2 over their last nine.
Mat’s pick: 8. Southern Illinois
7. Valparaiso (17-14, 11-9) vs. 10. Indiana State (11-20, 4-16) – 7 p.m. on MVC TV Network and ESPN+
Two of Valpo’s top three scorers are freshmen, so the biggest thing for the Beacons may not be winning this game, but retaining them to go on a run in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament next March. Meanwhile, the Sycamores have a more experienced team and match up quite well with 6-7, 220 forward Ian Scott leading the way. After starting 9-9, Indiana State is just 2-11 since, but lost close games in both contests against Valparaiso. I’ll be fun with an upset pick here.
Mat’s pick: 10. Indiana State
6. Northern Iowa (19-12, 11-9) vs. 11. Evansville (7-24, 3-17) – 9:30 p.m. on MVC TV Network and ESPN+
It’s been a season to forget for the Purple Aces. But if you haven’t been keeping count, it’s now the program’s fifth finish in the last seven years with fewer than 10 wins. No way in my right mind can I pick them to upset UNI.
Mat’s pick: 6. Northern Iowa
Quarterfinals – Friday, Mar. 6
1. Belmont (26-5, 16-4) vs. 8. Southern Illinois – 1 p.m. on MVC TV Network and ESPN+
Few teams spread the floor out as well as Belmont, which has eight players who average seven or more points per game. Of course, Nic McClain hasn’t played since Jan. 1, but that still leaves seven players who can lead the team in scoring on virtually any given night. The Salukis can defend well, and also handed Belmont one of its four conference losses. I’m tempted to get upset, but I’ll just say expect this to be closer than you may think.
Mat’s pick: 1. Belmont
4. Murray State (20-11, 12-8) vs. 5. UIC (17-14, 12-8) – 3:30 p.m. on MVC TV Network and ESPN+
Ever since Elijah Crawford returned from injury, UIC’s been a different team. With him on the court, they are 14-5 and one of the best teams in the conference. Without him? The Flames are just 3-9. And in the regular season, Crawford only played one minute against the Racers, so you might as well not count that. I’m instead counting on Crawford to lift UIC to the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament semis. I should mention I absolutely hate how this is a quarterfinals matchup, and whoever wins has a serious chance of taking the tournament.
Mat’s pick: 5. UIC
2. Bradley (20-11, 13-7) vs. 10. Indiana State – 7 p.m. on MVC TV Network and ESPN+
Despite not winning the MVC regular season title, I do believe Bradley is the best team in this conference. And it all starts with 5-9 Jaquan Johnson, who is one of the most electrifying players in college basketball on both ends of the floor. I do want to remind everyone that the first time these teams matched up in December, it took three overtimes for the Braves to come out with the win. I don’t think we have to play 55 minutes in this one, but I do think the Braves emerge victorious again.
Mat’s pick: 2. Bradley
3. Illinois State (20-11, 12-8) vs. 6. Northern Iowa – 9:30 p.m. on MVC TV Network and ESPN+
The Redbirds beat UNI both times in the regular season, but will it happen a third time? After starting out 4-0 in conference, Illinois State hasn’t been able to put together a winning streak of more than two, and they are currently on a two-game streak. Both teams rely on defense, but UNI ranks the best in the country, so that seems like a strong pick, but I’m reluctant, based on some offensive struggles. Give me Illinois State!
Mat’s pick: 3. Illinois State
Semifinals – Saturday, Mar. 7
1. Belmont vs. 5. UIC – 3:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
I’m loving this UIC team, but do they have enough to keep the hot play going against Belmont? The Bruins won both regular-season meetings in close finishes, and I’m going to say they pull off a season sweep. UIC has scored fewer than 70 points in two of its last three meetings heading into the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, so even if it gets past Murray State, I’m not liking its chances of having to drop 80+ against Belmont.
Mat’s pick: 1. Belmont
2. Bradley vs. 3. Illinois State – 6 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Who knows what will happen here, because Illinois State won on their home floor by 26, while Bradley took it at home by 14. This is a neutral site, so it leans to a closer game, so I’ll say Bradley moves on to the championship. Plus, Illinois State turns the ball over a bit, so Jaquan Johnson’s ears should be perking up if this matchup happens.
Mat’s pick: 2. Bradley
Championship – Sunday, Mar. 8
1. Belmont vs. 2. Bradley – Noon on CBS
I actually don’t believe we will see Belmont and Bradley playing for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Championship, but that’s where my research took me. Of course, if it does happen, it’ll be a great game between the two best teams in the league. And while I want to lean Bradley, Belmont’s high-scoring team can be potent and I’d love to see it in March Madness. And for a team that makes 51.7% of its shots and 40.5% from three, going against a very inefficient Bradley team tells me I should pick the Bruins. They’ve got Cinderella written all over them.
Mat’s pick: 1. Belmont
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