College Basketball Conference Title Races: February 3rd Edition

As the calendar turns to February, college basketball conference title races are starting to heat up.

Most conferences have crossed the halfway point in games played, and for some, that means we have a strong idea of who is going to come out on top. For others, it’s still as close as it gets, making these last few games extra exciting.

Let’s take a look at each conference and where the race to win the regular season title stands.

All but wrapped up

CUSA – Liberty

Liberty is 10-0 in conference play so far and holds a 3.5 game lead over second place, which is tied between Sam Houston State and Missouri State. They still have 10 games left, so it’s far from clinched, but unless they have an unprecedented collapse, Liberty will head into conference tournament play comfortably as the one seed.

Missouri Valley – Belmont

This can definitely change, especially since Belmont has to still play road games against Murray State and UIC. However, they’ve won seven straight, hold a two-game conference lead, and are playing really good basketball right now. If they beat UIC on the road on Friday, then they might as well give them the trophy after the game. Murray State has a chance, but they’ve lost four in a row.

NEC – LIU

Shoutout to the Sharks! They sit at 8-1 and 2.5 games ahead of second place. They have impressive guard play and have lived up to the unanimous preseason favorite tag. With eight games left, it would be hard to see this team not clinch the title with ease.

SWAC – Bethune-Cookman

There’s no surprise that the team being labeled as the most talented SWAC team ever has been just that. They are 7-1, two games ahead of second place, and have won five straight. Remember, they took Auburn to overtime in the first game of the season. There’s definitely a chance Arkansas Pine-Bluff or Alabama A&M can keep things interesting, but this is their conference.

Southland –  SF Austin

SF Austin faced McNeese on Monday in a game that more or less will determine who wins the conference. SF Austin won 67-60, giving them a two-game lead in conference play and an eight-game winning streak. This team is impressive, and as long as they don’t slip up, they’ll stay in this position the rest of the season.

Two-team race, but with a clear favorite

A10 – Saint Louis and George Mason

George Mason is 8-1, and you can even argue that VCU at 7-2 is in this conversation, but in reality, it’s Saint Louis’ conference as long as they don’t slip up. They are 9-0 in conference play and 21-1 overall, and even though they haven’t blown every team out, it is very apparent to anyone who watches this conference that they are the best team. They close out the season with a road test against George Mason, so if both teams keep winning, that could be a good opportunity for GMU to sneak in and claim the title.

Big East – UConn and St John’s

St. John’s has had a bit of a letdown season given the hype around this team, but they’re still 16-5 and 9-1 overall. However, UConn is far and away the best team in this conference, sitting at 11-0 and 22-1 on the season. The good news is these two teams play on Friday. So, either UConn can enter the “all but wrapped up” category, or St. John’s can pull off the win and make this a true two-team race.

MAC – Miami (OH), Akron

You can argue that Akron is actually the better team, making this a true two-team race, but Miami-Ohio is 22-0, and if no one is going to beat them, it doesn’t matter who is the better team. Plus, these teams already played their only game, where Miami won. Hopefully, both these teams keep winning and force the committee to make a tough decision about making this conference a two-bid conference, because both teams have shown they are tournament worthy.

Patriot – Navy and Colgate

The preseason favorite, and a team that we at CBB Review were very high on, Navy has lived up to that billing, starting 9-1 in conference play. They hold a two game lead over Colgate, who look like the only team that can give Navy a run for their money. Don’t be surprised, though, if Navy runs the table and wins the conference by three or four games.

WCC – Gonzaga and Santa Clara

Santa Clara might be the quietest 10-1 team in conference play in the country. They beat Saint Mary’s, and their only loss is Gonzaga on the road. They still get to play Gonzaga at home, which is why this is still a tight race. However, it is hard to imagine Gonzaga blowing this title with how talented they are. If Gonzaga can win that game on February 14th, you can call the race off.

True two-team race

America East – UMBC and Vermont

Both teams currently sit at 6-2 and are tied for the lead in the America East. Sure, NJIT is also 6-2, but the metrics say they will not be in this race in a few weeks. If that is proven to be wrong, that’ll be updated in future articles. Vermont just beat UMBC at home, 64-55, but they will play each other once again on February 19th. That result could be the difference in who comes out on top.

Big South – High Point, Winthrop

In the preseason, High Point was the clear favorite to win this conference, and it’s shown why so far, starting conference play 9-1. Unfortunately for them, there’s another 9-1 team in Winthrop, who handed them their only loss in conference play. With just seven games left, the margin for error is tiny for both these teams, and it most likely will come down to the penultimate game of both teams’ regular season, where High Point will host Winthrop, most likely for the title.

CAA – UNC Wilmington, Charleston 

This conference was supposed to be a toss-up between UNCW, Charleston, and..Towson. Two of those three have remained true to that, with UNC Wilmington sitting at 8-1 and Charleston 0.5 games back at 8-2. Neither team has played each other, but that’ll change on the 9th when Charleston hosts, then UNCW returns the favor in the penultimate game of the season in March. Power 5 coaches should definitely take notes, because neither of these teams you want to see in the tournament if they make it.

Horizon – Wright State, Oakland

Neither of these teams has the superstars they had in the past, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t winning. Both teams have reached ten wins in conference play, with Wright State holding a half-game lead thanks to one less game played. Wright State swept Oakland, so you can even argue that they fall into the clear favorite category, but with two losses and only a half-game lead, it’s still a toss-up with eight games to go for Wright State and seven for Oakland.

Three-team race, but with a clear favorite

Summit – North Dakota State, St. Thomas, North Dakota

This should be North Dakota State having it wrapped up, but the only reason why is because they still have to face St. Thomas and North Dakota on the roadm who both sit two games back. If either of those teams drops a game, then the title race is wrapped.

Three-team race

ACC – Duke, Clemson, Virginia

Duke holds a one game lead over Clemson and two over Virginia. It would honestly be shocking if they don’t win this conference, but the gap is close enough and Clemson and Virginia are talented enough where it’s not fair to say Duke has this one wrapped up. Duke still has a very tough road ahead, but almost all their top matchups are at home, which will give them a huge boost.

Big Sky- Portland State, Montana State, Montana

Portland State currently holds a 1.5-game lead over both the Montana teams, but still has to go on the road and face both of them in late February. Portland State has an extremely favorable schedule until then, and if they can head into that two-game stretch with a 2 or 3 game lead, it won’t even matter. Don’t sleep on the Montana teams, though, specifically Montana, which handed Portland State their lone loss this season.

Big West – UC Irvine, UCSB, Hawaii

UC Irvine picked up a huge overtime win against Hawaii last week to take sole control of the conference at 8-2, but they can’t get too comfortable when 8-3 Hawaii and UCSB are right behind them. UCSB has won six in a row, including a 15-point win over Hawaii, but they’ll have their chance to take the conference lead when they welcome UC Irvine on Saturday.

Four-team race

ASUN – Austin Peay, Lipscomb, Central Arkansas, Queens

There are a clear top four teams in this conference, with the 4 seed Queens having a three-game lead over the 5 seed. However, they have a ways to go if they want to catch Austin Peay, who are 9-1 with their only loss being to 8-2 Lipscomb on the road. These two teams play each other to start the month, which could have huge implications for the future. Don’t sleep on Central Arkansas either, who sit at 7-2 in conference play.

Big Ten – Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State

Michigan and Illinois are both top-five teams in the country for a reason, and their 10-1 records in a loaded Big Ten conference. Not far behind them are Nebraska, who dropped two straight but still sit at 9-2, and Michigan State, who boast the same record. Purdue probably still has a chance as well, but it’s hard to imagine Michigan or Illinois blowing a two-game lead in conference play. Illinois and Michigan State play on Saturday, meaning an Illinois win can potentially cut this race to three teams.

Big 12 – Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas 

Arizona sits on top at 9-0 and a one and a half game lead over Houston. However, they have an absolute gauntlet to end the season. What’s exciting is that most of these teams are facing each other in most of the late February games, so there will be no days off, and it allows teams to help themselves while hurting other teams’ chances of winning the title. Texas Tech can also win it, but it’s hard to imagine teams as dominant as Arizona and Houston have been to allow that gap to be shrunk.

Southern – ETSU, Wofford, Furman, Mercer

This is another fun race. ETSU is currently in the lead at 8-2, but the other three teams are all just one game back with eight games to go. ETSU plays Furman this weekend for a chance to knock Furman out of the race, but these four teams all have several games against each other, so make sure you’re tuned into this conference whenever these four teams are playing.

WAC – Utah Valley, Cal Baptist, UTA, Utah Tech

The eight-team conference has half its teams competing for the WAC title. Utah Valley, Cal Baptist, and UTA all sit at 6-3, while Utah Tech is just 0.5 games back at 6-4. After starting 0-3, Cal Baptist has won six straight, but Utah Valley has looked like the better team all season. Utah Valley plays UTA on Saturday in an important game for standings implications.

Five-team race

MAAC – Merrimack, Siena, Saint Peter’s, Marist, Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac is probably out of the race at 2.5 games back of the leader, but they were the preseason favorites for a reason, which is why they’ll stay on this list a little longer. Merrimack currently leads the way at 10-2. They hold a 1-game lead over Siena, which is on a five-game winning streak, and Saint Peter’s. You can’t forget Marist either, the best team in the MAAC analytically, according to KenPom and Barttorvik. Siena and Saint Peter’s face off on Saturday to make a big impact on the title race.

Mountain West – Utah State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Nevada, Grand Canyon

San Diego State’s loss to Utah State on Saturday actually kept Nevada and Grand Canyon in this race, as they went from being 2 and 2.5 games back to just 1 and 1.5 games back. In reality, though, it will probably be one of those top three teams, which are all tied at the top. Utah State’s last five games are at Nevada, at SDSU, vs. GCU, at UNLV, and vs. New Mexico. So, how Utah State handles those games will determine how the rest of the conference race finishes out, making this one of the more exciting races to watch.

Ohio Valley – UT Martin, Tennessee State, Lindenwood, Morehead State, SEMO

Thanks to Tennessee State’s home loss to Tennessee Tech, UT Martin holds a 1.5-game lead over the rest of the conference. Funny enough, all four of those teams are tied at 1.5 games back and 8-4 overall, meaning if UT Martin does run away with it, the battle for seeding will be intense.

Still anyone’s conference

American – Tulsa, USF, Charlotte, Wichita State, Memphis, FAU, UAB, Temple

This league has been super exciting. Two teams are currently tied for first at 7-2: Tulsa and Charlotte. Then, you have Temple and Memphis one game back, and FAU 1.5 games back. Even Wichita State, UAB, and Memphis sit just two games back. This is an important week, with a lot of these teams playing each other, and it could give us a clearer picture of who’s got a real chance. At this moment, it looks like Tulsa and USF, but anything can happen in this wacky conference.

Ivy – Everyone but Brown

With just seven games played by the conference so far, seven of the eight teams are within two games of each other in the conference standings. Yale is tied with Harvard at 5-2, and it would be a pretty big surprise if Yale doesn’t win the conference. However, it’s a pretty big surprise that Yale has lost two conference games already, including a home loss to Harvard, so this conference is still temporarily wide open.

MEAC – Everyone but Delaware and Coppin State

With the weather storms leading to game postponements, we have teams like NC Central with only five conference games played as we head to February. Until those games are made up, it’s hard to get a good idea of the favorites. Right now, NC Central and Morgan State are tied for first, with UMES a half game behind. If you’re looking at just analytics, 4-3 Howard are the clear favorites to win, and are a game back. Check back next week to see if we have a clearer picture of what’s going on.

SEC – Texas A&M, Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Auburn

If we’re being realistic, you can probably take out Missouri, Auburn, and maybe even Tennessee, but this conference is so unpredictable on any given night that these teams definitely could sneak their way in. Texas A&M is the surprise leader at 7-1, but last year’s national champions, Florida, are close behind at 7-2. Vandy has won three straight since dropping three straight, and you can’t count out the talent of Arkansas and Kentucky. Still 9-10 games left for each team, so a lot can happen in the next few weeks.

Sun Belt – Troy, South Alabama, App State, Marshall, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

This was Troy’s conference, starting 8-1, but as they’ve done all season, they dropped two games they should’ve won, and now not only hold a 0.5 game lead, but six teams are within two games of them. South Alabama and App State are both 0.5 back thanks to 3+ game winning streaks, while Marshall, which sits 1.5 games back, is considered the biggest competition to Troy from an analytical perspective.