A-10 Basketball: Who Are The Sleepers To Make The Big Dance?

While two teams currently sit atop the A-10 basketball standings, history suggests the tournament often favors an unexpected winner. So who are the sleepers to make a run in Capital One Arena?

George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth have dominated A-10 basketball all season. However, since 2014, the regular-season champion has only won the conference tournament twice. VCU was the most recent team to achieve this when the Rams went 15-3 in conference play in 2023.

Last season, Richmond and Loyola Chicago tied for the regular season title. But in the end, it was the six-seed Duquesne who ran the table in the conference tournament. With the recent trend of upset winners, which squads have the best chance to make the run to March?

Saint Joseph’s:

The Hawks are 17-10 and 8-6 in A-10 play after a dominating win over Richmond on Saturday. Currently, Saint Joseph’s basketball has its highest Net ranking of the season at 82. However, it is out of the running to pick up an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament.

In A-10 play, five of the Hawks’ six losses have come by single digits. Two came against VCU and George Mason, who sit atop the A-10 standings. However, they also have big wins over Villanova, Texas Tech, and Virginia Tech.

The Hawks also have one of the premiere scorers in the conference in the form of Erik Reynolds II. The senior leads the team in scoring and is just 28 points short of breaking Jameer Nelson’s all-time scoring record on Hawk Hill.

Saint Joe’s does not jump off the page in any specific stat in the A-10. Instead, they are solid in nearly every statistical category. The Hawks have the sixth-best scoring defense in the conference at 67.6 points per game. Saint Joe’s is also averaging 74.8 points per game while shooting 34.3% from behind the arc, both of which are top five in the A-10.

Last season the sixth seed in the A-10 ran the table to grab the automatic bid. Right now, the Hawks would enter the conference as the sixth seed. If they can match the intensity that they have shown at points this season, the Hawks could find their way to The Big Dance.

Saint Louis:

Saint Louis Basketball is currently 9-6 in A-10 play, with an overall record of 16-12. If the season ended today the Billikens would end up being the fourth seed in the A-10 tournament. Just a few weeks ago Saint Louis basketball sat just a single game behind George Mason, who led the conference. But the Billikens dropped four out of five games to sink in the conference standings.

Before that, Saint Louis boasted wins over Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure, and VCU. The Billikens are currently 108th in the NET rankings, meaning they will need to win the A-10 tournament to dance.

They are led by Robbie Avila, who you may know from his time at Indiana State or his popular nickname “Cream Abdul-Jabbar.” Avila is averaging 17.1 points to go along with 6.9 rebounds per game. However, he is just one of three players averaging more than 16 points per game for the Billikens.

Gibson Jimerson and Isaiah Swope are averaging 17 and 16.1 respectively. Gibson and Swope make up one of the most dynamic backcourts in the A-10. However, outside of these three players, only one Billiken is averaging more than seven points per game. While sharing the wealth has been a problem.

If Saint Louis basketball can grab the coveted double-bye in the A-10 tournament, the talented backcourt and Avila could propel the Billikens to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019.

St. Bonaventure:

The Bonnies began the season 14-1, since then the losses have come in bunches. After defeating VCU and Fordham to open conference play, they dropped five of their next six games. This stretch dropped St. Bonaventure from being ranked 51st on Jan. 4, to 93rd on Jan. 24 in the NET rankings.

Although the Bonnies currently sit at 7-8 in conference play, they have a proven ability to string wins together, which is perfect for tournament play. Their longest winning streak of the season is eight games, and they have won multiple games in a row four times this season. The Bonnies are also 2-1 on a neutral court, with their lone loss coming against NCAA tournament-hopeful Utah State by five.

St. Bonaventure has the third-best scoring defense in the conference at 64.3 points per game, this also ranks the Bonnies 17th in the country. However, their slow pace might account for the low-scoring games. The Bonnies are ranked 341st in adjusted tempo according to Kenpom, which is the slowest in the conference.

The Bonnies are also the only team in the A-10 to have five players averaging in double-figures. In a single elimination tournament, this could either be a blessing or a hindrance. But considering the core of the St. Bonaventure’s rotation, and their ability to string wins together, you cannot count the Bonnies out in the A-10 tournament.