Just over five weeks to go until the ACC Basketball Tournament and the conference is preparing for its final plunge.
This season has been an interesting one. Many could have predicted before the first game where a handful of these ACC basketball teams were going to end up, and others have taken us by complete surprise.
ESPN currently projects three ACC teams to find a place in the field of 68 and exactly ZERO teams in the bubble discussion. If that were the case and the season ended today, the ACC would be the least-represented power conference in March.
There are some ACC teams, however, that should probably get some more attention.
Now, there are some challenges that these teams need to overcome. Some teams in the conference need just one more thing to go right. Some have no chance.
I have divided the conference into four categories: The Locks, The Probables, The Maybes, and The Cinderellas. Let’s dive into what each team needs to do to get into the NCAA Tournament.
The Locks
#3 North Carolina (17-4, 9-1 ACC)
The Tar Heels finally slipped up on Tuesday and picked up their first loss in ACC basketball play, a shocking 74-73 defeat at the hands of Georgia Tech. The fans stormed the court as North Carolina headed to the locker room, but the loss will not affect the Tar Heels’ tournament hopes.
UNC dropped one spot to 9th overall in the NET Rankings, picking up their only non-Quad 1 loss this year. RJ Davis is one of the best (if not the best) guards in the nation. Armando Bacot has struggled in the past three outings but has been productive overall. Harrison Ingram, Cormac Ryan, and Elliot Cadaeu lead an impressive group of key players, all contributing in different ways.
Barring another disastrous end to the season like last year, North Carolina will be a 1 or 2 seed in March.
Crucial Remaining Games: Duke (twice), Clemson (Feb. 6)
#7 Duke (16-4, 7-2 ACC)
Duke had a rocky start, losing three of their first eight games to start the year. They are 11-1 since.
Leading the way is Kyle Filipowski, arguably the best big man in the sport behind Zach Edey. It’s not only his 17.5 PPG, it’s how he gets those points.
“Flip” can back down a defender. He can shoot the three. He can drive down the lane. And when all else fails he distributes the ball at an elite level, setting up Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor, Mark Mitchell, and Jeremy Roach to become enormous contributors.
Like UNC, Duke has slipped up at Georgia Tech. They allowed Pitt to beat them at Cameron. They are not infallible.
But they will secure a seed in March.
Crucial Remaining Games: North Carolina (twice), Wake Forest (twice), Florida State (Feb. 17), Virginia (Mar. 2)
The Probables (Spoiler Alert: It’s Just Clemson)
Clemson (14-6, 4-5 ACC)
Clemson is an interesting case. Most major or minor bracketologists have the Tigers in the tournament at the time of this article’s release. But they are by no means “safe.”
Clemson’s resume is impressive. 9-0 to start the year. Wins over Alabama, TCU, and South Carolina, all within a two-week span. A 17-point victory over Boise State, a team currently in ESPN’s “Last Four In” and in CBS’s bracket as a 7-seed, is another resume-booster.
They also have double-digit losses to Miami and Virginia Tech.
Pulling out a win over Duke last time out would have helped tremendously (Clemson lost 72-71). That loss dropped the Tigers six spots in the NET rankings, although an overall good outing. Clemson has a strong core of contributors in PJ Hall, Joe Girard III, and Chase Hunter, and a serviceable bench unit.
The Tigers will most likely punch a ticket to the dance, but winning the games below would be statement wins to boost their resume. I’m not including North Carolina because, of course, a top 10 win helps anyone’s chances. But Clemson needs to treat those top-half ACC teams as must-win games.
Crucial Remaining Games: Virginia (Feb. 3), NC State (Feb. 17), Florida State (Feb. 24), Wake Forest (Mar. 9)
The Maybes
Virginia (16-5, 7-3 ACC)
Tony Bennet’s squad has had its ups and downs. A 9-1 start included wins over Florida and Texas A&M, both projected bubble teams. They are yet to lose on their home court.
They also have a loss to Notre Dame, and nail-biting victories over Northeastern and West Virginia. It is truly a tale of two teams, and you don’t know which Virginia team you’re going to get on any given night.
The Cavaliers have a chance, but they need a lot to go right. The remainder of their season includes Clemson, North Carolina, and Duke. They probably need to go 2-1 in those games, and they cannot get embarrassed in any of them. All the while, they need to win against the teams just behind them in the ACC standings and finish strong.
Crucial Remaining Games: Clemson (Feb. 2), North Carolina (Feb. 24), Duke (Mar. 2)
Wake Forest (13-7, 5-4 ACC)
Okay, here’s the shot in the dark… and it got a lot darker after a loss to Pitt Wednesday night.
The state of North Carolina quietly ran the ACC this year. UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, and NC State combined for exactly FOUR losses at home (two for Duke, two for NC State). Wake Forest is 11-0 at the LJVM Coliseum.
Those 11 wins at home include an 11-point victory over Florida and a 19-point dismantling of Virginia. The tradeoff: the Deacs are just 1-4 on the road.
It’s a 6-away, 5-home split the rest of the way, but there are some enticing matchups. The Deacs take on Duke twice, they travel to Virginia, they host Syracuse and NC State, and they finish the season with Clemson at home. Those are the games to watch.
Wake has shown signs of greatness. The team shoots over 38% from deep. The four-headed monster of Hunter Sallis, Kevin Miller, Cameron Hildreth, and Andrew Carr in the starting lineup can give any ACC team problems on the right night. Now is the time for the team to make a run.
It’s a long shot. But if Wake can go at least 9-2 and maybe split the series with Duke, I see a very real possibility that the Deacs get in. Granted, this is a big ask. But I think Wake Forest has the best shot out of the remaining teams yet to be named on this list.
Crucial Remaining Games: All of them…
The Cinderellas:
Florida State, NC State, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, BC, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville
These teams are not all equal.
Florida State is 4th in the ACC, going 6-2 in their last eight conference games. Syracuse is a team that wins when they’re not supposed to but drops the games they should win. Notre Dame and Louisville are already planning how to utilize their incoming recruits next year.
One thing they all have in common: They need to win the ACC Tournament to get to the dance.
Florida State needs to win out for even a chance at an at-large bid, as eight losses is a tough case to make to the selection committee. The same can be said for NC State, who plays North Carolina and Duke back-to-back in March. Heck, if Syracuse wins out (beating UNC, and Clemson twice) then I think they might get a nod. But that just isn’t realistic.
Damon Stoudamire and the Yellow Jackets keep beating tournament teams with a losing overall record. They are an awful draw in the ACC Tournament for anyone, as they’ve already got wins over all three projected tournament teams from the conference. Watch out for Georgia Tech in D.C.
We didn’t expect to see this from Miami. Norchad Omier is still a phenomenal big man. Wooga Poplar and Nijel Pack are still some of the most talented names in the conference. The Hurricanes just didn’t click this year, which is a shame after what they did in the tournament last year.
Even with all that said, four of these teams in the Cinderella tier could win the ACC Tournament and I would be impressed… but not shocked. Florida State, Miami, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech are my brink-of-insanity dark horses. Probably a little past the brink.
In short: it’s going to be North Carolina. But it’s fun to imagine…