Previewing the first of two annual regular season meetings between the #7 Blue Devils and the #3 Tar Heels.
The greatest rivalry in college basketball is back in full form
In a world of conference expansion, we sometimes lost sight of the pure regional-based hatred that makes college sports so special. Duke and North Carolina epitomize that. The rivalry stems from much more than purely basketball but the hardwood is where the clash is showcased on the biggest stage.
Per Matt Norlander, this is the 49th time that the Blue Devils and Tar Heels have met as top 10 teams, yet the first since the 2018-19 season. Still, no other matchup in college basketball history has even 25 meetings as such.
A Duke win would reshape the entire perception of the ACC this year
For a while, UNC was considered the clear team to beat in the conference. Their non-conference resume included an impressive win over Tennessee, and they won their first nine ACC games with relative ease. Then, a shocking loss to a struggling Georgia Tech team earlier this week all of a sudden opened things up for the second tier.
Duke is now just a game behind North Carolina in the loss column and a win on Saturday night will give the Blue Devils complete control over their destiny. Two additional teams — 7-3 Virginia and 6-3 Florida State — can sneak up in the rear view mirror. A Tar Heels victory, on the other hand, would reassert their dominance and it would be easier to attribute the Georgia Tech result to a fluke.
North Carolina is much more dynamic than we have been recently accustomed to
Yes, there’s growing pains but overall, it seems like Hubert Davis has finally figured out a formula for sustained success. The Heels have a perfect eclectic of players that could result in a deep run in March.
It starts with their All-American caliber point guard in R.J. Davis. This is the guy you trust to take as many shots as necessary because of the incredible volume and efficiency he is producing at. His 21.5 points per game are complemented by another veteran in Armando Bacot, who is a well-established double-double machine, an athletic wing and big shot maker in Harrison Ingram, and an emerging true freshman in Elliott Cadeau. Not to mention Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan, who Ben elegantly described as the “a prototypical Duke player placed in a Carolina uniform” on the CBB Review Studio Podcast.
A slower-paced, uglier game favors Duke
North Carolina’s offense is capable of hanging 100 on any given night but we have also seen them involved in a few dog fights. The game against Clemson in earlier January is what comes to mind, one that UNC ended up winning, but also that served as proof that they won’t necessarily control the tempo of every game.
If this game turns into a track meet, UNC has superior athletes and will gladly take advantage of as many transition opportunities as possible. In the half court setting, Duke could be more deliberate.
Offensively, they could take advantage of favorable individual matchups, particularly through Kyle Filipowski, who is a nightmare to guard as an athletic stretch big. Duke also takes among the highest quality threes in the country, and knocks them down at a rate close to 39%.
Guarding the Tar Heels is much more complicated, but again, they are averaging 1.23 points per possession in transition as opposed to 1.03 in the half court, per Shot Quality. Georgia Tech just successfully slowed down the Heels by matching up with athletes that can defend the rim. For Duke, the task will be limiting spacing and cutting off the dribble penetration from the guards. If non-RJ Davis players happen to make tough threes, there’s nothing you can really do.
The Prediction
We almost unanimously went with UNC in our CBB Review weekly game picks. Torvik projects a point spread around 7 or 7.5 in favor of the home Tar Heels. Because of the rivalry factor, I would almost certainly favor Duke in regards to that line. However, I will double down on my pick for North Carolina to win outright because so many underlying factors have to go in Duke’s favor to give them an edge.
If you’re a Blue Devils fan or simply a believer that they will win this game, talk to Ethan because he has your back.