2023 Bracketology: Locks, Needs More Work, Bubble, & Out?

With just under two weeks left in the regular season, here’s where each power conference team & more stands in bracketology.

ACC

Locks: 4

Virginia Cavaliers (21-4, 13-3)

Ranked 6th in the AP Poll, the Virginia Cavaliers are the only ACC team that still has a chance at getting a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. With a 9-4 record in Quad 1/2 games, UVA is in its own class in an ACC that has played far below usual standards.

Miami Hurricanes (23-5, 14-4)

Miami is proving that its Elite 8 run in 2022 is no fluke. The ‘Canes have more Quad 1 wins (7) than an ACC team and have now won seven games in a row. You want to be playing your best basketball at this time of the year, and the Miami Hurricanes are doing just that.

Pittsburgh Panthers (20-8, 13-4)

Who would have thought the Pittsburgh Panthers would be competing for an ACC title this year, let alone be a lock for the NCAA Tournament in late February? As it stands, Pitt is only 0.5 games behind Virginia and Miami for the ACC lead. With Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Miami left on the schedule, the 1 seed in the ACC Tournament is not out of the question.

Duke Blue Devils (20-8, 11-6)

Brand recognition might have a little bit to do with this, but when it comes down to it, Duke is 20-8 and has wins over Xavier, Iowa, Pitt, Miami, and North Carolina. The ACC might not give many chances for quality wins this year, but Duke has strung together a nice resume that almost seems to have fallen below the radar a bit.

Needs More Work (1)

NC State (21-7, 11-6)

At this point in the season, there’s such a fine line between being a tournament lock and being on the bubble. But NC State falls right into that little hole. While the Wolfpack’s record is darn close to a lock, they only have 2 Quad 1 wins to this point in the season. One of them came against Miami. The other came on the road at Virginia Tech. Of course, you can’t ignore a win over Duke either. As long as NC State can go 2-1 to finish out the regular season, that should be enough. Anything less, and the lack of quality wins could have Wolfpack fans sweating a bit on Selection Sunday.

Bubble (4)

North Carolina (16-11, 8-8)

I’ll be honest, I don’t believe UNC deserves to be in the NCAA Tournament, but I have them in as my LAST team in the field of 68. Despite an 0-9 record in Quad 1 games, the Tar Heels are still 48th in the NET. That’s as good as most teams on the bubble. To help out their case even more, UNC hasn’t lost a single game to a Quad 3/4 opponent and is 5-2 in Quad 2 games. That a lot of math, but in simplest terms, North Carolina is “mid” this year. And sometimes, that’s still good enough to get in, especially when you’re UNC.

Clemson (19-8, 11-5)

Speaking about a lack of quality wins, the Clemson Tigers fall right in that bracket. However, the 3-2 record in Quad 1 games isn’t the big issue. It’s actually the FOUR losses in Quad 3/4 games that’s keeping Clemson on the bubble. Losing to South Carolina, Loyola Chicago, Boston College, and Louisville will not give you many brownie points from the committee.

Wake Forest (17-10, 9-7)

Wake Forest is going to hope the committee values a team with 20+ wins on the bubble. As it stands, the four remaining games on the Demon Deacons’ schedule are NC State, Notre Dame, Boston College, and Syracuse. Even a 4-0 stretch won’t be enough to boost their resume, so the ACC Tournament is going to have to be where Wake Forest can try and separate itself.

Virginia Tech (16-12, 6-11)

At 67th in the NET, the Hokies are hanging on the bubble by a thread. One more loss, and it could be popped. A 1-8 record on the road has been their Achilles Heel, but with three Quad 1 wins, they’ve got just enough of a resume to stay in the debate.

Out (6)

• Syracuse (16-11, 9-7)
• Boston College (13-15, 7-10)
• Florida State (8-20, 6-11)
• Georgia Tech (11-17, 3-14)
• Notre Dame (10-17, 2-14)
• Louisville (4-24, 2-15)

Of these six teams, Syracuse is the only one that could make a case to be on the bubble. When it comes down to it, the Orange are 99th in the NET, 0-6 in Quad 1 games, 2-3 in Quad 2 games, and have 2 Quad 3/4 losses. The Orange can still get on the bubble, but it would take quite the finish of the season.

For the other five teams, winning the ACC Tournament is the only hope left at reaching March Madness.

Big 12

Locks (6)

Kansas (23-5, 11-4)

Kansas is the most secure lock in the entire country. The Jayhawks are a ridiculous 14-5 in Quad 1 games and haven’t lost a single game outside of Quad 1. If you’re not in the Jayhawks’ realm, don’t even bother thinking you can beat them.

Texas (22-6, 11-4)

We all know how great the Big 12 is this season, and one reason is having two teams who are still vying for 1 seeds in the Big Dance. Should Purdue, Alabama, or Houston slip anymore, the Longhorns would be next in line. Like Kansas, Texas hasn’t lost a game outside of Quad 1 competition.

Baylor (20-8, 9-6)

Freshman Keyonte George has been even better than advertised, helping to keep Baylor at the top of the Big 12. Scott Drew’s team is not only a lock for the NCAA Tournament but is focused on winning a second national championship in three years.

Kansas State (21-7, 9-6)

The ACC has Pittsburgh, and the Big 12 has Kansas State. Two teams who have exceeded expectations to the max. Jerome Tang is an easy favorite for National Coach of the Year. Keyontae Johnson’s return to the court after collapsing while at Florida, and returning to form at Kansas State, is the best story in college basketball. Oh, and the Wildcats are 21-7 and a likely 3-4 seed at this point in time.

Iowa State (17-10, 8-7)

For a while, all six locks in the Big 12 were playing for 4 seeds or better, which is unprecedented in NCAA Tournament history. Iowa State has since fallen back a bit, but the Cyclones are still an at-large bid regardless. At 18th in the NET and 8-7 in the best conference in college basketball, Iowa State has nothing to worry about.

TCU (18-10, 7-8)

TCU might be worried about the 2-6 record in their last 8 games, but when you’re ranked in the AP Poll in week 16, you’re a lock for March Madness. The Horned Frogs still play Texas Tech and Oklahoma on their regular season slate, so if it puts fans at easy, even just one win would solidify their lock that much more.

Needs More Work (0)

Bubble (3)

Oklahoma State (16-12, 7-8)

The Cowboys have been a late addition to most bracketology projections, thanks to a 7-1 stretch during the heat of Big 12 play. They’ve since lost three games in a row and fallen back to the bubble, but are still in solid shape. Having a 5-9 Quad 1 record while playing in the Big 12 in the 2022-23 season should work wonders for Ok State.

West Virginia (16-12, 5-10)

West Virginia is 5-10 in the Big 12, yet has the resume of a tournament team. That’s how good this conference is. The Mountaineers have wins over Iowa State, TCU, Pittsburgh, Auburn, Oklahoma State, and Florida. That’s better than most bubble teams, even if the conference record is pretty lame.

Texas Tech (16-12, 5-10)

The Red Raiders are as hot as any team in the Big 12, taking down Kansas State, Texas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma in the midst of a four-game winning streak. Can it continue against TCU? A win against the Horned Frogs could jump Texas Tech ahead of West Virginia on the bubble and make the Big 12 a 9-bid league. It’s quite possible.

Out (1)

• Oklahoma (13-15, 3-12)

It’s amazing that even with that treacherous record, the Oklahoma Sooners are actually 72nd in the NET and have wins over Alabama, Kansas State, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, and Florida. But that’s just far too much below .500 overall and in Big 12 play. If anything, the Sooners could go on a rampage in Kansas City and take the Big 12 Tournament!

Big East

Locks (5)

Marquette (22-6, 14-3)

Marquette was a big question mark heading into the season, thanks to a largely inexperienced roster. That hasn’t mattered a bit, as Shaka Smart’s club leads the Big East by a game and a half heading into the final stretch of the regular season. Marquette closes out with DePaul, Butler, and St. John’s. Dare we start saying 2 seed?

UConn (20-7, 9-7)

One of four Big East teams with at least 20 wins, the Huskies once fell in the category of “Needs More Work” thanks to a stretch of 6 losses in 8 games. Now, UConn seems to be back to being the dominant team it has been for a good portion of the season. Their resume includes wins over Alabama, Marquette, Iowa State, Creighton, Oklahoma State, and Seton Hall. Teams will fear playing UConn in March.

Xavier (20-8, 12-5)

While the Musketeers have struggled mightily lately, they’re still in position to get a very good seed. Xavier fans will be clawing for more and there’s no reason they shouldn’t be. When clicking and fully healthy, the Musketeers have one of the most impressive starting fives in the country.

Providence (20-7, 12-4)

Speaking about starting fives, the Providence Friars have entered the chat! Ed Cooley’s team has risen above expectations for the second year in a row and has a dominant starting bunch. Bench play has been an issue, but clearly, it hasn’t been big enough to deter this team from reaching “Lock” status.

Creighton (18-10, 12-5)

You’d be hard-pressed to find me one team who has gone through more ups and downs this season than Creighton. The Bluejays might be 14th in the NET rankings, but make no mistake, it hasn’t been all sunshine and flowers. After starting 6-0 with wins over Texas Tech and Arkansas, Creighton dumped six in a row. You can look at the fact that starting center Ryan Kalkbrenner was injured, but losing to Nebraska, BYU, and Arizona State was sure to turn some heads. Since then, Creighton is a solid 12-4. They might not be in the 20-win club yet, but they’re on their way.

Needs More Work (0)

Bubble (1)

Seton Hall (16-12, 9-8)

There’s only one true bubble team in the Big East, and it’s (my) Seton Hall Pirates. At 16-12 and 9-8 in conference with 3 Quad 1 wins, you can’t get more bubble than the Hall. They’ve got a solid record and a few Quad 1 wins, but nothing to separate themselves from their competition. SHU does round out the regulars season slate with Xavier, Villanova, and Providence. A 2-1 finish plus a win in the Big East Tournament might be enough to make the Pirates go dancing.

Out (5)

• Villanova (14-14, 8-9)
• St. John’s (16-12, 6-11)
• Butler (13-15, 5-12)
• DePaul (9-18, 3-13)
• Georgetown (7-21, 2-15)

You could make a case that a strong finish for either Villanova or St. John’s could give them bubble status heading into the Big East Tournament. But even then, the Wildcats are 1-8 in Quad 1 games and the Red Storm are 1-7 in the same metric. As for the other three? It might be time to start prepping for next year.

Big Ten

Locks (6)

Purdue (24-4, 13-4)

Boilermakers fans might think this is the end of the world, given the 2-3 record in the past five games. But when you look at the whole body of work, Purdue is as dominant as the next team, winning 9 of 13 games against Quad 1 opponents. They’re one of just seven teams that haven’t lost a game outside of Quad 1.

Indiana (19-9, 10-7)

Indiana might get a bit restless, considering the team has only gone on a winning streak of five or more games twice this season. Instead, it’s been full of trading wins and losses back and forth, with a few more of the good outcomes than the bad ones. At 20th in the NET on February 22nd, the Hoosiers are playing for seeding at this point.

Northwestern (20-7, 11-5)

Northwestern is serious. It seems like Boo Buie has been a Wildcat since 2011, but honestly, who cares? Let him and the rest of this program have their moment! Northwestern WILL have its second EVER NCAA Tournament appearance this year and there’s no doubt about it.

Iowa (17-10, 9-7)

The Hawkeyes are just barely a lock and you can thank their seven Quad 1 wins for that. A 6 seed in my latest Matty Brackets projection, the Hawkeyes have wins over Iowa State, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland, Illinois, Rutgers (twice), Seton Hall, and Clemson. A bad finish to the season would hurt their seed, but it won’t knock them out of the tournament. And with a game against Nebraska still on the schedule, Iowa will at the very least finish 10-10 in one of the best conferences in college basketball.

Maryland (18-9, 9-7)

Maryland locked up NCAA Tournament status with the win over #3 Purdue, giving new head coach Kevin Willard his best win with the Terrapins. They finish out the regular season with Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Penn State. At this point, Terps fans should be wondering if they can rise all the way to a 5 or 6 seed.

Michigan State (17-10, 9-7)

If the Spartans weren’t a lock on Tuesday morning, they became one on Wednesday night, following a home win over #17 Indiana. Emotions were high, as it was the first game since a gunman senselessly killed three Michigan State students and injured five others. It was a win all of college basketball wanted to see the Spartans get, and now, they’re on their way back to the Big Dance. Watch out for Tom Izzo in March, ladies and gentlemen!

Needs More Work (2)

Illinois (18-9, 9-7)

I’m probably going to get a lot of flak for this, but you’ve gotta take everything into consideration. If Michigan State were to lose out, they’ve still got SEVEN Quad 1 wins to their name. The same can’t be said for Illinois, which is 3-7 in Quad 1 games. If the Fighting Illini were to lose the rest of their games (Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue) and in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, they would be 18-14 (9-11) with three Quad 1 wins. That screams bubble to me. All Illinois really needs is one more win to be totally safe and a lock for a third straight tournament appearance.

Rutgers (17-10, 9-7)

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are in the same boat as Illinois. While they’ve got a comparable record to the Michigan States and Marylands of this world, they’ve got a few things going against them too. Namely two Quad 3 losses, which came against Temple and Nebraska. It’s the same story as Illinois. If Rutgers can just get one more win, they become a lock. But God forbid they lose five straight and all of New Brunswick, New Jersey will be sweating on March 12.

Bubble (3)

Wisconsin (15-11, 7-9)

Let’s give Wisconsin’s resume a gander, why don’t we? The Badgers are one of my last four teams IN, thanks to a 5-7 record in Quad 1 games. Having that amount of quality wins as a bubble team is key for separating yourself from the competition. But, the Badgers are still 15-11 (7-9). That record needs some work. It can start with a win over Iowa on Wednesday.

Penn State (16-11, 7-9)

Is Penn State going to climb all the way back into the field? The Nittany Lions have won their last two, putting an abrupt stop to a dreadful four-game losing streak, which included an L to Nebraska. Buckle up, Penn State fans, the bubble chatter is going to be intense these next few weeks.

Michigan (15-12, 9-7)

At first glance, Michigan’s record is the best of the Big Ten’s three bubble teams. But then you look at the resume. Their best win? On the road over Northwestern. Their second-best win? At home over Northwestern. While the Wolverines have beaten a few more tournament locks out of the Big Ten, they lack a real quality win to push them over the top. Maybe they can get it at Indiana on the last day of the regular season?

Out (3)

• Nebraska (14-14, 7-10)
• Ohio State (11-16, 3-13)
• Minnesota (7-18, 1-14)

None of these teams have a shot at reaching the Big Dance unless they can stack five wins in a row in the Big Ten Tournament.

Pac-12

Locks (2)

UCLA (23-4, 14-2)

Even with the Pac-12 potentially only sending two teams to the NCAA Tournament, one of them could be a 1 seed. UCLA is 4th in the NET, 12-4 in Quad 1/2 games, and 7-2 on the road. They check off literally every box. Will they get the benefit of the doubt despite playing in the Pac-12?

Arizona (24-4, 13-4)

Arizona is literally right behind UCLA on my bracketology big board. I have the Bruins 6th and the Wildcats 7th. Why? Despite being down a game and a half in the conference, Zona does hold the head-to-head advantage over the Bruins and is 7-2 in Quad 1 games. It’s as even as it gets.

Needs More Work (0)

Bubble (4)

USC (19-8, 11-5)

The bubble is a funny thing sometimes. A 19-8 (11-5) record would make you a lock in the Big 12, Big East, or Big Ten. But in the Pac-12, it makes you a bubble team. You can also blame USC’s non-conference performance, losing to Florida Gulf Coast in the first game of the season. In Pac-12 play, the Trojans fell to Washington State and Oregon State. Those are some very ugly losses, but one would think that getting to 22 wins should do it for Andy Enfield’s bunch.

Arizona State (19-9, 10-7)

Can both Hurley brothers make the NCAA Tournament? Dan’s team is a lock, but Bobby’s team is far from it. The Sun Devils are 8-8 in Quad 1/2 games but have some terrible blemishes. Just look at the 37-point loss to San Francisco if you don’t believe me.

Utah (17-11, 10-7)

For a while, Utah was looking like a solid bet for the Big Dance. The Utes beat Arizona and were rolling at 9-2 overall. They’ve since gone 8-9 and can’t seem to put together a solid stretch of basketball together before a losing streak ensues. Their next two games are both at home against UCLA and USC. A 1-1 stretch would prove very beneficial.

Oregon (15-13, 9-8)

The Ducks are hanging on to the bubble by the skin of their teeth, and really only because of an 8-12 record in Quad 1/2 games. It’s not sexy, but it is good enough to place them in the top 50 in the NET.

Out (6)

• Colorado (15-13, 7-10)
• Washington (15-13, 7-10)
• Washington State (13-15, 8-9)
• Stanford (11-16, 5-11)
• Oregon State (10-18, 4-13)
• California (3-24, 2-14)

While Colorado and Washington both held bubble status not too long ago, both teams have fallen off after recent rough stretches. They both have chances to re-enter the bubble conversation, but the rest of the four are long gone from that talk.

SEC

Locks (5)

Alabama (23-4, 13-1)

Alabama is a 1 seed waiting to happen and a 2 seed at worst. But the most important conversation does not revolve around Crimson Tide basketball, but rather, the state of the program. The latest news was about freshman Brandon Miller allegedly providing the gun that was used in the killing of Jamea Harris. While former Alabama basketball player Darius Miles is being charged in the incident, there is nothing Miller can legally be charged with. But that’s not the point. There’s a lot going on at Alabama right now and basketball has become secondary.

Tennessee (20-8, 9-6)

I’m not sure what’s happened to Tennessee basketball. A couple of weeks ago, they were in serious consideration for a 1 seed. While a 2 seed is still very much in the cards, the Vols have lost 5 of their last 7 games. In a typical 2022-23 college basketball fashion, one of those wins was over then #1 Alabama. Make it make sense!

Texas A&M (21-7, 13-2)

Texas A&M is buzzing! Pun intended for head coach Buzz Williams. But seriously – the Aggies have won their last six games and have lost just twice since Christmas. No one seems to be noticing until now, but clearly, Texas A&M means business.

Kentucky (18-9, 9-5)

Much like Duke, Kentucky’s name helps out a bit here. But also much like Duke, they’re not having as bad of a season as people are led to believe. While the Wildcats aren’t living up to preseason hype, they still have wins over Tennessee (twice), Texas A&M, and Michigan. That’s certainly enough to put Kentucky into the field of 68, no doubt about it.

Missouri (20-8, 8-7)

Missouri has been in the AP Top 25 at times this season, which speaks volumes about the peak of this team. The low hasn’t been too low either, with all eight of their losses coming against teams at least on the bubble, or better. Not bad for Dennis Gates’ first year in town.

Needs More Work (2)

Arkansas (19-9, 8-7)

Despite being one win away from 20 on the season, the Razorbacks aren’t off the hook just yet. They’re 2-6 on the road, have losses to LSU and Vanderbilt and haven’t been playing overly convincing basketball in the SEC. I’d say two wins and they’re in, but they do finish out the regular season AT Alabama, AT Tennessee, and against Kentucky. An 0-3 finish is real possible and the Razorbacks would be on the bubble heading into the SEC Tournament.

Auburn (18-9, 8-6)

Auburn is right there with Arkansas. The records are nearly the same and the Tigers also play Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee for their last three SEC regular season games. They do have an additional game against Ole Miss on Wednesday, which should result in a 19th win. But make no mistake, a loss to Georgia isn’t pretty. The Tigers still need to prove a little bit more.

Bubble (2)

Mississippi State (18-10, 6-9)

Did a 2-point loss at Missouri just crush Mississippi State’s at-large hopes? Not entirely, but it surely didn’t help. What will help is the final stretch of SEC play, which gives the Bulldogs three chances at three wins. Texas A&M won’t be easy but isn’t impossible. South Carolina and Vanderbilt are must-wins. 20-11 (8-10) or 21-10 (9-9) heading into the SEC Tournament would put the Bulldogs firmly on the bubble.

Vanderbilt (15-12, 8-6)

The Commodores have crawled their way back onto the bubble, following wins over Tennesse and Auburn. That’s during a five-game winning streak, mind you. Is Vandy basketball back? Who knows. Am I serious about them being on the bubble? 100%. Wins over LSU and Florida and I’m 200% serious. It’s time to start giving Vanderbilt the respect they deserve.

Out (5)

• Florida (14-13, 7-7)
• Georgia (16-12, 6-9)
• South Carolina (10-17, 3-11)
• Ole Miss (10-17, 2-12)
• LSU (12-15, 1-13)

The only other SEC team you could argue should be on the bubble is Florida, but I’m no dummy. Without Colin Castleton, the Gators are unfortunately screwed. Even with him, they just haven’t performed enough this season. AS for Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and LSU? SEC Tournament time is a wonderful thing. So is the offseason.

Other / Mid Majors

Locks

Houston (25-2, 13-1)

What else can you really say about the Cougars? If the season ended today, Houston would have quite the case for the number one overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kelvin Sampson has coached Houston to #1 in the AP Poll and #1 in the NET Rankings. Not much to argue there!

Saint Mary’s (24-5, 13-1)

It’s a bit unpopular, but I still have Saint Mary’s ahead of Gonzaga, and I believe for good reason. Neither resume is THAT much better than the other, but the Gaels beat the Bulldogs in the head-to-head. That has to count as something, right?

Gonzaga (23-5, 12-2)

It feels a bit weird with Gonzaga not being in play for a 1 or 2 seed this late in the season, but the Bulldogs have had their struggles this season. With that being said, they’re still one of two favorites in the West Coast Conference, and have the track record needed to be a lock in a mid-major conference. But no, Gonzaga is NOT a mid major!

San Diego State (22-5, 13-2)

In a Mountain West that could get as many as FOUR teams into the NCAA Tournament, the Aztecs are really the only sure lock. Being 17th in the NET and 8-5 in Quad 1/2 games will grant you that security. The question, is what other teams will join them?

Needs More Work

Florida Atlantic (24-3, 14-2)

A recent loss to Middle Tennessee hurt the Owls’ chances at an at-large bid, but the chances are still very high. Their only other losses are to a UAB team that is very, very good and on the road to Ole Miss out of the SEC. While those losses aren’t great, a win at Florida certainly makes up for them. FAU is on the brink of a berth, whether they win the C-USA Tournament or not.

Memphis (20-7, 10-4)

Memphis is virtually a lock, because I can’t think of a world in which the top team in a conference (Houston) is playing for a 1 seed, and no other teams get in. Memphis’ resume is also more than good enough, with a non-conference win over Auburn helping its case with less chances in the AAC. If the Tigers can get to 25 wins, which they should, they should be dancing in March.

Nevada (21-7, 11-4)

Nevada has to be feeling good. They’re 21-7 in a MWC that holds as much weight as ever. Their final three games of the regular season are all against teams with losing records. Sure, if they lose one, they’re down a step. But, the way the ‘Pack has been playing, they should be 24-7 (14-4) heading into the conference tourney. That’s nearly a lock at this point.

Boise State (21-6, 11-3)

The Broncos are just barely above the bubble, thanks to playing in a Mountain West that is very much arguably better than the Pac-12. Going off of that, should Boise State lose one more game, I think they will still get in the field. But, if they lose two, or three more games, they move onto the bubble. Talk about a thin line.

Charleston (26-3, 14-2)

I will fight to the death about Charleston. Going 26-3 is a major accomplishment and shouldn’t be overlooked, even if you play in the CAA. With a pair of wins against Towson and Stony Brook, the Cougars would be 28-3 going into their conference tournament. How can you seriously keep a team with, let’s say, a 30-4 record out of the Big Dance?

Oral Roberts (25-4, 16-0)

Oral Roberts has it all! The Golden Eagles were the first team to wrap up its regular season conference title in college hoops. They have Max Abmas, who provided NCAA Tournament heroics in 2021. And they have an incredible 25-4 record, which is good no matter what conference you play in. They should be in, but playing in the Summit League will make things tough.

Bubble

Utah State (22-7, 11-5)

The Utah State Aggies are the fourth of the Mountain West teams for a reason. While their record is comparable to Nevada and Boise State, they are missing one thing – a Quad 1 win. That’s a major separation tool, and it could cost them. But if they win out, how are you keeping Utah State out of the dance?

Dayton (18-9, 10-4)

Dayton is my auto-pick to win the A-10 Tournament by default, because there really is no favorite. However, even if the Flyers don’t get the auto bid, they still have a resume that will compete for an at-large. They need a Quad 1 win, but with a 4-0 finish of the regular season, can really gain some eyes on them.

VCU (21-7, 12-3)

In most years, a 21-7 team out of the Atlantic-10 would not be on the bubble, and might even be close to a lock. But this isn’t most years. The A-10 is as down as it’s ever been and VCU’s bubble status is hurting because of that. But to that end, the Rams are still 74th in the NET with three Quad 1/2 wins. They certainly have a better chance than most teams on the bubble, especially with the overall record looking as clean as it does.

North Texas (23-5, 14-3)

The Mean Green will likely feel a lot of other emotions on Selectin Sunday. They should be upset if they don’t get in with a 28-6 overall record, but it’s happened before! Of course, winning Conference USA is the best way to feel secure about playing in March, but when FAU is in your conference, it ain’t that easy.

Drake (23-6, 14-4)

Drake may have three Quad 3 losses, but the Bulldogs did beat the Bulldogs of Mississippi State, mind you when they were ranked 15th in the country. Drake also still plays at Bradley, who is second in the loaded Missouri Valley. The chances are slim, with four losses in a mid major conference, but Drake also pulls a bit of weight thanks to a string of recent success.

New Mexico (20-7, 7-7)

New Mexico has cost itself in Mountain West play, after once having a case as the best team in the conference. But they still have a better chance than most teams. A 6-3 record in Quad 1/2 games is very good for a bubble team. Four Quad 3/4 losses is not.