Troy basketball is going to the NCAA tournament in back-to-back seasons for the first time ever. Can they earn their first-ever tournament win in 2026?
The Sun Belt tournament can be a gauntlet if a team slips up in conference games. Luckily for Troy basketball, the Trojans made sure that didn’t happen, winning the Sun Belt regular season en route to a two-game test for a tournament bid, which they secured.
How they got there:
Finishing atop the Sun Belt standings is extremely crucial for tournament hopefuls, as the conference tournament is a true ladder of varying difficulty. For the lowest seed to win the tournament, they’d have to win seven straight games in seven straight games. For the top seed in the conference to win, it’s just a matter of two wins in two days.
And that’s what the Trojans did, winning on the last game of the regular season to secure an outright conference title and escape what turned out to be a six-team tie for second place. As it turns out, those six teams went a combined 0-6, taken down by a combination of Southern Miss and Georgia Southern. Those two unlikely winners were Troy’s semifinal and final opponents, respectively. The Trojans didn’t need much help in taking the crown, leading for over 90% of each game they played, including the 77-61 triumph over Georgia Southern in the title game.
Thomas Dowd was named the Sun Belt Tournament Most Outstanding Player, and Jerrell Bellamy joined him on the Sun Belt All-Tournament Team.
General Information:
Team: Troy
Location: Troy, AL
Record: 22-11 (12-6)
Head Coach: Scott Cross (19th season, 7th at Troy)
What to know about Troy basketball:
Troy basketball is great at generating second opportunities on offense. The Trojans are 48th nationally with a 34.9% adjusted offensive rebounding rate, and are inside the top 100 in second points scored per game. Despite the fact that they take plenty of threes (Troy’s rate of 27.3 attempts per game is 39th in Division I), the Trojans don’t make too many shots from deep. Over the course of the season, Troy has a 33.2 3PT%, 220th nationally. Recently, it hasn’t gotten better. Over Troy’s past 10 games, its mark from deep is 30.7%. It drops to 28.2% in the last five games. Against Southern Miss and Georgia Southern, the Trojans made 23.5% of their 34 attempts, not great.
The Trojans are led in scoring by a pair of forwards, the aforementioned Dowd and Victor Valdes. Together, the duo combines for 29.8 PPG. Another forward, Theo Seng, averaged 13.0 PPG before getting injured in mid-February. Per Jon Rothstein, however, he should be good to go for the NCAA tournament. That’s great news for this squad, though Jerrell Bellamy has done a great job in Seng’s absence. Dowd (10.4 RPG) and Seng (5.9 RPG) lead this team on the glass, while Valdes (4.6 APG) and guard Cooper Campbell (4.1 APG) are the main distributors.
NCAA Tournament prediction for Troy basketball: Round of 64 exit
Seed: 13
Troy hasn’t ever made the Round of 32. Is this the year that the Trojans’ fortunes get reversed? The Sun Belt as a whole is underrated, so the six conference losses for Troy shouldn’t be a non-starter when it comes to a first-round upset. As a matter of fact, in the non-conference portion of this team’s schedule, they proved they can hang with tournament teams. Troy is 3-1 in Q1+Q2 games, with a Q1 win coming on the road against San Diego State.
Troy was given a 4 seed with the right matchup, especially given their size – the Nebraska Cornhuskers. The Trojans clearly are a 13 seed with value, at least in terms of the eye test. With Seng returning, the frontcourt is at its deepest. Sure, the perimeter shooting is suspect, but all it takes is one good performance for 40 minutes. We’re not ready to guarantee it, but keep your eyes peeled. Plus, Nebraska hasn’t been the greatest after an outstanding non-conference performance. One team is about to get its first-ever win in March Madness.