Furman basketball is back in the dance for the first time since upsetting Virginia in 2023. Can they make waves again?
Bob Richey now has four seasons of 20 or more wins in the past five seasons in Greenville. He’s now got the Paladins back in the NCAA tournament, becoming the first coach to make multiple tournament appearances at Furman since Joe Williams back in the 70s.
How they got there:
Despite the now-20-win season, Furman basketball actually didn’t have the most dominant season amongst the SoCon. The Paladins started the conference slate with a 7-3 record, then lost five of eight to finish out the regular season, including a 19-point loss to Western Carolina on the final day of conference games.
That relegated Furman to the six seed in a ten-team league, not the most beneficial of placements in a postseason tournament. But the Paladins beat three-seeded Samford in the quarterfinals behind Tom House’s 20-point effort off the bench. After UNCG upset Wofford in the 2-7 matchup, Furman used a 28-point second half from freshman Alex Wilkins to dispatch the Spartans and set up a final with the number one seed East Tennessee State.
Having lost both games to ETSU in the regular season, the Paladins were +1.5-point underdogs in the final. But this game wasn’t close. Furman held a seven-point lead at half and walked away with a 76-61 victory to clinch a bid. Cooper Bowser led the way with a 21-point, 11-rebound double-double, and he earned a spot on the SoCon All-Tournament First Team, along with Wilkins. House was named to the All-Tournament Second Team.
General Information:
Team: Furman
Location: Greenville, S.C.
Record: 22-12 (10-8)
Head Coach: Bob Richey (9th season, all with Furman)
What to know about Furman basketball:
Furman is not your typical mid-major. For starters, their leading scorer is a 6’5″ freshman guard. Alex Wilkins has the highest usage percentage in the SoCon by a wide margin, and he has a season average of 18.1 PPG. The 34 points against UNCG in the semifinals wasn’t an outlier, as Wilkins has 12 games of 20+ points this season. The Paladins are 9-3 in those games, and Wilkins isn’t one-dimensional, either; he’s third in the conference with an average of 4.7 APG.
But the Paladins have a big issue with ball security. They led the SoCon with an average of 11.9 turnovers per game. Is that bad? It ain’t good. But it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Furman forced a bunch of turnovers on the other end of the ball. The issue there is that they don’t do that either. The Paladins are 357th of 365 D-I teams in steals per game, with just 4.4 per game. Over the last 10 games, that number is down to 4.1.
There are other areas in which Furman does well, however. The Paladins are 15th amongst D-I teams with a 59.0 2PT%. They’re decent at limiting offensive rebounds from their opponents, and the team’s true shooting percentage ranks within the top 100 nationally. Besides Wilkins, Bowser also averages double figures, (13.9 PPG) as does sophomore guard Asa Thomas. Recently, the team has been running an eight-man rotation, with eight Paladins receiving between 18-29 MPG over the past ten games. Forward Charles Johnston not only leads the team in rebounds with 9.1 per game, but the Australian is 34th nationally amongst all players in that stat category.
NCAA Tournament prediction for Furman basketball: Round of 64 exit
Seed: 15
Furman coincidentally played four tournament teams in their first four games against D-I competition, five if you count the exhibition game against Alabama. In those games they were 1-4, with the win coming against ASUN champion Queens and the losses at the hands of High Point, Troy, Northern Iowa, and the aforementioned Alabama exhibition. The Paladins had a chance to distance themselves from other quality mid-majors and simply couldn’t do it. They’re without a Q1 or Q2 win on the season entering the tournament.
It’s historically unlikely for a SoCon team to fall to the 16 seed line. In the past five years, the conference champ has received a 13 seed four times and a 15 seed once. Furman’s resume is in between those lines, and there’s a chance that they do receive a 14 seed, though a 15 is more likely. There’s some intrigue for a possible upset pick, especially with Power Five size: the Paladins have two 6’11” forward averaging over 28 MPG. All seven players averaging at least 20 MPG are 6’5″ or taller.
But the Paladins have some very real weaknesses, especially when it comes to turnover disparity, and for a team that takes a lot of threes, they don’t make a lot of them: Furman is ranked eighth in 3PT% in a 10-team mid-major conference. It would be very surprising for Furman basketball to make the round of 32, but with their size and the production of Wilkins, don’t overlook the possibility, especially if they rise to a 14 seed.