CBB Review prepares you for every conference tournament leading up to Selection Sunday on Mar. 15. Up next: The Sun Belt Tournament.
When it comes to madness, no conference better embodied that this season than the Sun Belt. Heading into the last day of the regular season, we had a situation where seven teams could have tied for the conference regular season title. Only one came away with it, though, Troy, while the six teams below them resulted to tiebreakers in order to sort out who has to play when in a tournament format that is built to punish tiebreakers.
Marshall drew the right end of the stick, earning the two seed and only having to play two games, while Arkansas State has to win five games in five days to dance. Will that matter? We’ll see in a few days.
Last year, Troy took the title, continuing the streak to five straight years with a unique winner. Arkansas State has finished as the runner-up in back-to-back years and would love to break that curse.
Interestingly, the one seed has only won once in the last eight Sun Belt tournaments. South Alabama and Louisiana are currently tied for the most active conference tournament championships with five. We have seven straight days of Sun Belt basketball, so grab a snack and settle in for the madness that should take place in this Sun Belt tournament.
2026 Sun Belt Conference Awards
Player of the Year: Thomas Dowd, Troy
Freshman of the Year: DJ Hall, Texas State
Transfer of the Year: Joshua Beadle, Coastal Carolina
Coach of the Year: Justin Gray, Coastal Carolina
First Team:
- G: Jordan Speer, Marshall (15.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.1 SPG)
- G: Chaze Harris, South Alabama (18.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.3 APG)
- F: Tylik Weeks, Southern Miss (18.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG)
- F: DJ Hall, Texas State (15.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG)
- F: Thomas Dowd, Troy (14.6 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.4 BPG)
Second Team:
- G: Joshua Beadle, Coastal Carolina (17.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.9 APG, 0.9 SPG)
- G: Jelani Hamilton, Georgia State (17.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.2 APG, 2.0 SPG)
- F: Wyatt Ficks, Marshall (15.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1.5 BPG)
- F: Victor Valdes, Troy (15.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG
- F: Justin McBride, James Madison (15.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG)
2026 Sun Belt Tournament Simulation
First Round – Tuesday, Mar. 3
12. Louisiana (10-21, 7-11) vs. 13. Georgia State (10-21, 7-11) – 5 p.m. CT on ESPN+
This one should be tight. Both teams finished with identical records in both the regular season and conference play. When these two teams played in January, Louisiana got the upper hand, winning by 10 at home. Georgia State went 1-6 in February, and when a team is trending down, you ride that wave.
Ariel’s Pick: 12. Louisiana
11. Old Dominion (11-20, 7-11) vs. 14. ULM (4-27, 1-17) – 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+
Every team in the Sun Belt was competitive this year except ULM. Ironically, ULM’s only win in conference play was against Old Dominion, but don’t expect it to happen again.
Ariel’s Pick: 11. Old Dominion
Second Round – Wednesday, Mar. 4
9. James Madison (17-14, 9-9) vs. 12. Louisiana – 5 p.m. CT on ESPN+
James Madison was the preseason favorite to win this conference, so seeing them with a nine next to their name is certainly a surprise. James Madison went 6-2 in February, but one of those losses was to this Louisiana team. With that being said, you still have to back the potential in James Madison.
Ariel’s Pick: 9. James Madison
10. Georgia Southern (16-15, 8-1o) vs. 11. Old Dominion – 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+
This is another great game that could come down to the last shot. Georgia Southern got the regular-season sweep, but this is the time of the year when guards step up, and Old Dominion has two in KC Shaw and Jordan Battle that can do that.
Ariel’s Pick: 11. Old Dominion
Third Round – Thursday, Mar. 5
8. Southern Miss (16-15, 9-9) vs. 9. James Madison – 5 p.m. CT on ESPN+
These two teams played in January, and Southern Miss took care of business, winning by eight. Ironically, that result was probably the difference between having to play an extra game or not. This will come down to how good Tylik Weeks plays for Southern Miss. He scored 28 in the win, and if he can go over 25, they’ll win this game. However, I expect James Madison to gameplan around him now that they’ve played, and Southern Miss doesn’t have the depth to get past them.
Ariel’s Pick: 9. James Madison
7. Arkansas State (20-11, 11-7) vs. 10. Georgia Southern – 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+
No team in maybe all of college basketball got screwed over harder than Arkansas State did. They finished with the same conference record as the two seed, but instead of only needing to play two games in order to win the Sun Belt Tournament, they’ll have to win five. Unfortunately for Georgia Southern, they will take their anger out on them, a team they already beat by 17 earlier in the year.
Ariel’s Pick: 7. Arkansas State
Fourth Round – Friday, Mar. 6
5. Texas State (19-12, 11-7) vs. 9. James Madison – 5 p.m. CT on ESPN+
If this game were at Texas State, this wouldn’t be much of a conversation. The Bobcats went 16-1 at home this year, which is extremely impressive. However, they went 3-9 away from home, including a 25-point loss to James Madison in late January. It’s the third game in three days for JMU, but it’s all about surviving and advancing.
Ariel’s Pick: 9. James Madison
6. South Alabama (21-10, 11-7) vs. 7. Arkansas State – 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+
This is yet another game in this hype competitive conference that can go down to the wire. These two teams played twice in the season, and it took an extra five minutes to determine the winner both times (South Alabama). They needed 38 from Chaze Harris to win that one at home, and another 30 in the road win. He’ll need another big game if they want to win this one. Arkansas State’s two-point defense and tempo will be too overwhelming, and as a result, they’ll pick up another big win.
Ariel’s Pick: 7. Arkansas State
Quarterfinals – Saturday, Mar. 7
4. App State (19-12, 11-7) vs. 9. James Madison – 5:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+
Can the run continue for JMU? They beat App State by 11 when they played on Feb. 14. The big reason why is that they held App State, who are 15th in the country in PPG, to just 58 points. Don’t expect one of the most efficient scoring teams in the country to do so again, and playing their fourth game in four days will finally catch up to JMU.
Ariel’s Pick: 4. App State
3. Coastal Carolina (19-12, 11-7) vs. 7. Arkansas State – 8 p.m. CT on ESPN+
Coastal Carolina was picked to finish second-to-last in the conference in the preview, so hats off to them for an impressive season. Coastal Carolina is ranked fifth in the luck metric in KenPom. So the question is, can the “luck” continue? Unfortunately, the way Arkansas State has played as of late will overpower that luck and make them one-and-done.
Ariel’s Pick: 7. Arkansas State
Semifinals – Sunday, Mar. 8
1. Troy (20-11, 12-6) vs. 4. App State – 5 p.m. CT on ESPN+
Troy was in the driver’s seat for most of the season, but had a really rough February where they went 4-3 in conference play and nearly blew their regular season title. App State absolutely punked Troy in January, winning by 22 and holding them to 44 total points. While this game should be closer, don’t be surprised if App State takes care of business again here.
Ariel’s Pick: 4. App State
2. Marshall (19-12, 11-7) vs. 7. Arkansas State – 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+
Marshall’s defense has been horrendous this season, and the fact that they were able to do so well is impressive considering that. According to Barttorvik, they have the third-worst defensive efficiency in the entire country since February 1st. The offense has been great, but the combo of Arkansas State’s high-volume offense plus Marshall’s poor defense can cause problems. Arkansas State wins its fourth game in four days and advances to the final.
Ariel’s Pick: 7. Arkansas State
Championship – Monday, Mar. 9
4. App State vs. 7. Arkansas State – 6 p.m. CT on ESPN2
It might not be the championship game you expected, but here we are. This conference has been wacky all season long, so no better way to wrap this season up with a four and seven seed. Arkansas State is looking for its fifth win in five days and to finally win after losing in the championship in back-to-back years. App State is playing its third game in three days itself, and is hoping to become the first non-unique winner since the pandemic.
Somehow, these teams didn’t play each other in the regular season, so we can’t base anything off head to head. The deciding factor in this one is whether App State can make its shots. They shot 27% from deep in February, and not on low volume. If those aren’t falling, Arkansas State will take advantage and pull out one of the most impressive runs in recent history.
Ariel’s Pick: 7. Arkansas State