It’s almost time for the college basketball season! Let’s make some bold predictions.
With all the preseason polls out, the media opinions out in the open, and teams ready to just go out there to play, the buzz couldn’t be higher. There is a lot of consensus on a lot of things, but what makes college basketball crazy is the craziness and unpredictability.
With that being said, let’s make ten bold predictions for the upcoming season. Look, a lot of these probably won’t happen, but go big or go home, right?
1) Washington finishes the season in the Top 25
After finishing last place in the Big Ten last year, Washington was voted 11th in the Big Ten in the preseason poll. The analytical models felt the same, having them around the 40-50 mark in the country. However, this team has the talent to not only finish ahead of that 11th ranking, but a top 25 team in the country.
They have two great scorers and all-around transfers from USC in Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates. They also add two conference players of the year last year in Quimari Peterson and Jacob Ognacevic. Finally, they bring in an international prospect in Hannes Steinbach that people can’t stop saying enough good things about. You can’t forget about the talented returner in Zoom Diallo, who took a leap last year.
This team definitely has the talent to finish Top 25, and they got a favorable schedule, with Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all having to travel to the West Coast to face them. Don’t be surprised if this Washington team is getting votes and has a high seed in March.
2) Florida doesn’t make the second weekend
Now, I’ll preface this by saying that this doesn’t mean that Florida is going to be a ten seed and an underdog in the first game or two. This team could very easily finish as a one seed. However, history says that the defending champion doesn’t have much luck the year after.
2016: Villanova wins the championship, loses in the Round of 32 the next season
2017: North Carolina wins the championship, loses in the Round of 32 the next season
2018: Villanova wins the championship, loses in the Round of 32 the next season
2019: Virginia wins the championship, loses in the Round of 32 the next tournament (2021)
2021: Baylor wins the championship, loses in the Round of 32 the next tournament
2022: Kansas wins the championship, loses in the Round of 32 the next tournament
2024: UConn wins the championship, loses in the Round of 32 the next tournament
The only instance since 2016 in which the defending champion didn’t lose in the Round of 32 the following season was UConn, who went back-to-back. Florida loses Walter Clayton, who was so essential for their tournament run last year. As mentioned earlier, this Florida team can still be one of the best in the country, but that might not mean a trip to the Sweet 16.
3) Oregon misses the tournament
Oregon just barely missed out on a preseason top 25, getting 98 votes, 6 less than #25 UNC. For good reason as well, this Oregon team won 25 games last year and returns its duo of Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle. If both of them are on the floor, which they were for all 35 games last year, then they’ll be dangerous again and comfortably make the tournament.
The only issue, though, is that Jackson Shelstad suffered a broken right hand in early October. Dana Altman said he hopes he’ll be back for the Players Era in late November, which is plenty of time to get healthy. However, if the injury is worse than we think, that’s a huge problem for this Oregon team. It’s not like Nate Bittle is an Iron Man either. Obviously, the hope and expectation is that both guys can stay healthy, but it’s obviously something to consider.
The big issue is the rest of the team. They lose TJ Bamba and Keeshawn Barthelemy from last season, and they’re relying on some unproven transfers to not only replace those guys but also step in for Shelstad. If no one can do so, this is a team seriously in danger of not making the tournament.
4) Miami finishes with a losing record
Last year was a disaster year of all disaster years for Miami. They went 7-24, and longtime head coach Jim Larannaga retired midseason. They brought in Jai Lucas, the Duke offensive mastermind, to right the ship, and he brings in a ton of talent, including Tre Donaldson from Michigan and Malik Reneau from Indiana. They also add a ton of talented freshmen. Barttorvik, an analytical model, projects them to finish 19-11, and EvanMiya has them ranked 36th in the country.
There’s a chance everything goes wrong and this team melts down once again. Malik Reneau and Ernest Udeh Jr. are great players on their own, but in a frontcourt together where neither can shoot, this might cause issues with spacing and stall the offense. This is also a team with zero returning players, so chemistry might be an issue, especially for a first-time coach.
Finally, this team is very freshman-reliant. Pretty much their entire bench is freshmen. These aren’t five-star freshmen either; they’re three stars who usually need a season or two to develop. If all of these issues arise, don’t be surprised if this team wins fewer than 15 games once again.
5) Liberty wins the CUSA by 5 games
Last year, Liberty won the CUSA by just one game. With half of the CUSA flocking to the American, a few seasons ago, the conference has gone significantly weaker, and Liberty has taken advantage of that. Only one team last year won their conference by five games, and that was McNeese, which proves its no easy task to do so.
However, Liberty returns a ton of talent from last year, including their backcourt. They also return Zach Cleveland, the big man who might be the best player in the conference. Ritchie McKay is also a phenomenal coach who will have them in a position to succeed night in and night out.
What’s more important is that all the teams that were close to them last year lost their stars. The talent and coaching gap is huge in the CUSA, and even though they only play 18 games, don’t be surprised if Liberty loses just one or two and wins the conference by five games.
6) San Diego State makes a Final Four run
Heading into the season, it seems like there’s a lot of consensus on who the potential final four teams are. Houston and Purdue are the first two, and of course, Florida and UConn. The other teams in the top 10 also get mentioned, and even a couple in the 10-20 range in the AP Poll. After that, you don’t hear much.
This San Diego State team, which has fallen under the radar to an extent, certainly has the talent to do so and the keys to sneak into a Final Four. First, they have a coach who’s been there before and knows what it takes to make a deep tournament run. Brian Dutcher led his team to the final four three seasons ago, and had a chance to do so again the year after if they didn’t have to face the juggernaut UConn in the Sweet 16.
Next, they have a team with no weak defenders. Miles Byrd is one of the best defenders in the country. Magoon Gwath is one of the best shot blockers in the country. The rest of the starting lineup are all plus defenders as well. They have depth as well. Their top seven can all contribute in different ways, and Dutcher will have options. Lastly, this team has a ton of experience both in college basketball and with each other. That can be the boost needed to make that run and work off each other.
This is a team that should be a decent seed in the tournament, but don’t be surprised if they’re the lowest seed in the Final Four this year.
7) Michigan State returns to a bubble team
Last year was a rejuvenation for Tom Izzo and the Michigan State program. They went 30-7, won the conference by three games, and made an Elite 8 run. Last time Izzo won 30 games in a season, he won 32 the year after and made a final four run.
However, since COVID, this team hasn’t been dangerous, especially in conference play. They lost 13+ games in four straight seasons, going 41-38 in conference play. They made the tournament every time and overperformed, but it wasn’t easy getting that bid.
There’s a good chance that with this team, they return to that status. On one side, they return four key players from last year’s team. On the other side, they lose their top three scorers, including NBA first-rounder Jase Richardson. When you lose your top three players, you need to find ways to replace them, and is Trey Fort, the Samford transfer, going to fill that void? Will it be Kaleb Glenn from FAU? Or, will Coen Carr or Jeremy Fears take such a big leap that it makes up for that loss of talent?
If the answer to some of those is no, then this is a team that can definitely lose 8-10 games in conference and be fighting to feel comfortable in March, despite being a top 25 team in the preseason.
8) Memphis finishes outside the top 3 of the American
When you think of the American Conference, you immediately think of Memphis, especially after Houston left for the Big 12 a few years ago. Last year, they dominated the conference, going 16-2 and winning the conference by two games.
A big reason why is that the talent gap between them and the rest of the conference is always significant. While a lot of teams in the American conference rely on transfer-down players or homegrown players, Penny Hardaway is able to recruit terrific talent, and that’s what propels them.
If you look at this year’s team, though, you don’t really see that. They lose PJ Haggarty, Tyrese Hunter, and Dain Dainja. The big addition is Dug McDaniel, who took a step back last year. They also add Aaron Bradshaw, the talented big man who had issues of his own last season at Ohio State. After that, it’s pretty bleak.
The good news for them is that the rest of the conference doesn’t look great as well. South Florida is the clear threat to Memphis for the title, and North Texas is always consistent and could easily fall into that top three. If Tulane or UAB can step up, it’s very possible that this Memphis team finishes outside of the top 3, which would obviously mean no tournament appearance for them. That’s not great for a program that’s been begging the Big 12 to take them.
9) A10 conference wins over 2.5 games in the NCAA Tournament
This might not seem like a lot of wins for a good conference, but this is something they haven’t accomplished since 2014. They came close in 2024, when Duquesne and Dayton both won a game, but finished 2-2. This year, this conference has a ton of talent, and what was a one-bid conference last year could very well be a two or three-bid conference this year.
Saint Louis looks to be significantly improved in year two under Josh Schertz. VCU should still be one of the favorites with new coach Phil Martelli Jr. George Washington looks very dangerous after a big year last year. Even Dayton and Loyola Chicago have rosters good enough to make the NCAA Tournament.
All of these teams are capable of winning two games in the tournament. If they can get a second or third team in, that could be enough to get that third win and bring back national relevancy to a really great college basketball conference.
10) Mississippi Valley State breaks the KenPom record for the worst team
Since KenPom began in 2002, it has evaluated every team every season to determine their rating. Duke finished at +39.23 last year, the best in KenPom history. Ideally, the higher you are, the better, and anything below zero isn’t great. Last year, Mississippi Valley State finished -42.12. That was the worst in all of D1. The second worst? Arkansas Pine-Bluff at -25.94. The gap between the worst (364)Â and the second worst (363) was the same as the second worst and 280.
That was the second-worst season of all time; the worst was Grambling State, which finished with a Net rating of -46.10. That team finished dead last in offense and defense, and went 0-28 that season.
In the preseason rankings, KenPom has Mississippi Valley State ranked dead last at -34.08. They’re last in offense and defense in the entire country. While they have a ways to go to reach -46.10, this team is definitely capable of that. This team is pretty shockingly bad, and comfortably the worst team in the country. They have a great Twitter page, but unfortunately might make history this season for all the wrong reasons.