CBB Rank 2025: No. 41, Mississippi State Basketball

Mississippi State basketball is coming off a third straight NCAA tournament appearance for only the second time in program history. What’s next for the Bulldogs?

The tradition continues! It’s another year of our countdown of the top 100 preseason teams in college basketball until the start of the season. Each day, we will reveal the next team until we reach the team slotted at number one. Up next: Mississippi State basketball.

Mississippi State basketball has a lot to replace entering the 2025-26 season. Though the Bulldogs retained star guard Josh Hubbard, there are a lot of new pieces in and some very important players on their way out of Starkville. 

For starters, Cameron Matthews signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Houston Rockets. He was instrumental to Mississippi State basketball over the past five seasons, and his void is nearly impossible to replace, even beyond the box score. Also gone is double-digit scorer KeShawn Murphy, who was one of the most improved players in the SEC last season, Claudell Harris Jr., who provided an offensive spark, and Riley Kugel, who could be inconsistent but also had plenty of talent. It’s hard to replace a group like that, but keeping Hubbard was a good start. 

At point guard, the Bulldogs could turn to Hubbard again or move him into the shooting guard role with the addition of Georgetown transfer Jayden Epps. Epps averaged 18.5 PPG and 4.2 APG in the 2023-24 season, but his role shrank a bit last season despite similar efficiency rates. Returner Dellquan Warren, who managed 1.3 APG despite only appearing in 6.2 MPG, will likely back up Epps.

At shooting guard, Hubbard could get the ultimate green light. Of course, there’s a chance they keep him at the point, and that would still work quite well. But with Epps incoming, we assume Hubbard will slide in at the two spot. UAB transfer Ja’Borri McGhee is in a similar spot. He could play minutes at point, but at least will definitely contribute at either the one or two. McGhee is a very good shooter from the perimeter, which the Bulldogs need.

Freshman King Grace was the highest-rated recruit in Mississippi State basketball’s recruiting class, per 247Sports, but he’s sitting behind two quality talents. However, Grace might be too good to keep on the sidelines, even considering the quality of the player anchoring the guard position in Starkville.

At the wing, Shawn Jones Jr. is the likely plug-in at the three. He’s been with the program for three years, waiting patiently for his time to shine. Jones started four games last season, but his best performance last year might have been off the bench. Against Missouri in the SEC tournament, Jones played 26 minutes, scoring 10 points and adding two rebounds, two assists, and two steals. Over the final six games of the 2024-25 campaign, Jones averaged 6.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 APG, while adding 1.3 SPG in 21.1 MPG. If Jones can replicate that type of role-player production this season, he’ll be quite valuable.

Arizona State transfer Amier Ali also has a shot at starting at the three. Despite a small average of 5.5 PPG as a freshman with the Sun Devils last season, Ali had a sort of mini-breakout in February, averaging 9.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 1.1 APG over a month-long stretch. Ali and Jones will almost certainly split time, with freshman recruit Cameren Paul seeing a limited role as well. 

The four spot is in a very interesting battle for playing time. Most likely, the starter at the power forward position will be Kansas State transfer Achor Achor, who starred at Samford but struggled heavily in a limited role with the Wildcats last season. Achor averaged 11.4 fouls/40 minutes, the most on the team, creating a hurdle to playing time. Time will tell if he can adjust to power five basketball.

Elsewhere, European prospect Sergej Macura is intriguing. The Slovenia native has impressed in international competition. Another new recruit, this time from closer to Starkville, Jamarion Davis-Fleming, also has a chance to earn early playing time as a freshman. He’s already got SEC size. And don’t forget about Montana State transfer Brandon Walker. The jump from Big Sky to SEC is huge, but he’s proven to be a consistent contributor at the lower level. 

At center, Wichita State transfer Quincy Ballard is a huge pickup, literally. He isn’t much of a distributor, but that simply isn’t his role. He’s a rim protector who is also elite at getting the ball into the basket efficiently from inside the arc. In fact, he averaged 1.9 BPG and shot 75.1% from two last season. That’s elite. The 75.1% mark inside was first in the AAC and sixth in the whole of D-I basketball.

Freshman Tee Bartlett also has the size to make a difference, but it might take a few weeks of competition to get him up to SEC speed after playing in the Overtime Elite league. Returner Gai Chol will also provide depth. 

Mississippi State has a great guard room, but there are questions remaining, particularly with the pecking order in the frontcourt. There will be a lot of contributors in Starkville this season. However, if this team doesn’t provide Josh Hubbard with enough of a supporting cast on offense, the ceiling will remain in the first weekend of the tournament. 

Head coach: Chris Jans (4th season at Mississippi State, 16th season overall)

2024-25 record: 21-13 (8-10)

2025 postseason finish: Lost to Baylor (75-72) in first round of NCAA Tournament

Notable departures: 

• KeShawn Murphy (11.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.6 APG)
• Claudell Harris Jr. (9.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.2 APG)
• Riley Kugel (9.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.5 APG)
• RJ Melendez (8.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 0.9 APG)
• Cameron Matthews (7.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.6 APG)
• Michael Nwoko (6.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 0.7 APG)

Notable non-conference games: 

• vs. Iowa State (Nov. 10) – Sioux Falls, S.D.
• vs. Kansas State (Nov. 20) – Hall of Fame Classic
• vs. Nebraska OR New Mexico (Nov. 21) – Hall of Fame Classic
• vs. SMU (Nov. 28)
• at Georgia Tech (Dec. 3)
• vs. Utah (Dec. 13) – Salt Lake City
• vs. Memphis (Dec. 20)

Projected Rotation

PG: Jayden Epps (6-2, 190, Sr.)

2024-25 stats: 12.8 PPG, 2.3 APG, 2.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG (Georgetown)

SG: Josh Hubbard (6-0, 190, Jr.)

2024-25 stats: 18.9 PPG, 3.1 APG, 2.1 RPG, 87.8 FT%

SF: Shawn Jones Jr. (6-6, 205, Sr.)

2024-25 stats: 4.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 0.9 APG

PF: Achor Achor (6-9, 230, Rs.-Sr.)

2024-25 stats: 7.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 0.7 APG, 54.1 FG%, 7 GP (Kansas State)

2023-24 stats: 16.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.8 BPG, 58.6 FG%, 43.5 3P% (Samford)

C: Quincy Ballard (7-0, 260, Rs.-Sr.)

2024-25 stats: 10.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 0.3 APG, 1.9 BPG (Wichita State)

6: Ja’Borri McGhee (6-2, 200, Sr.)

2024-25 stats: 11.1 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.7 RPG (UAB)

7: Amier Ali (6-8, 210, So.)

2024-25 stats: 5.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.8 APG (Arizona State)

8: King Grace (6-5, 195, Fr.)

247Sports Composite No. 61-ranked recruit

9: Sergej Macura (6-9, 220, So.)

International Recruit (Slovenia)

10: Dellquan Warren (6-2, 185, So.)

2024-25 stats: 0.6 PPG, 1.3 APG, 0.8 RPG, 6.2 MPG

11: Brandon Walker (6-8, 255, Sr.)

2024-25 stats: 14.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.6 APG (Montana State)

12: Tee Bartlett (6-11, 290, Fr.)

247Sports Composite No. 89-ranked recruit

13: Jamarion Davis-Fleming (6-10, 240, Fr.)

247Sports Composite No. 126-ranked recruit

14: Cameren Paul (6-7, 210, Fr.)

247Sports Composite No. 131-ranked recruit

15: Gai Chol (7-0, 245, Jr.)

2024-25 stats: 1.5 PPG, 0.8 RPG, 0.1 APG, 4.3 MPG

Mississippi State Basketball team MVP: Josh Hubbard

Who else but Hubbard? The 2024-25 second team All-SEC selection was second in the conference in points per game last season, behind only Tre Johnson. Despite being listed at 5-11 last year (he’s now listed at 6-0 prior to the season) the Madison native (two hours southwest of Starkville) was one of three players in the SEC with 100+ three-pointers made, joined by Walter Clayton Jr. and Chaz Lanier. His duel against Reed Sheppard as a freshman is still burned into my mind. (He hit seven threes in 35 minutes of action.)

Hubbard is entering his junior year and already has 27 career games of 20+ points. What else is there to say? He’s an All-SEC level player, and if the Bulldogs make the tournament this year, it’ll be because of him. There’s probably a 50% chance he leads the SEC in points per game this fall. Over the last 14 games of last season, against top-tier competition, he averaged 22.6 PPG, 3.4 APG, and only 1.8 TOPG. As an enjoyer of SEC basketball, I’m glad Hubbard isn’t 6’3″, because he’d already be in the NBA if so. 

Mississippi State Basketball make-or-break player: Ja’Borri McGhee

McGhee started his collegiate career with Garden City CC in Kansas, then spent a season with South Plains College in Texas, both in the JUCO ranks. Last year, he made the jump to the AAC and saw considerable success, averaging 11.1 PPG and starting all 37 games the Blazers played, playing a crucial role in the team’s NIT quarterfinal run. Twice, once against Memphis and once against Auburn-Montgomery, McGhee led the team in both points and assists. Against Florida Atlantic, he scored 27 on 10-16 shooting from the field. 

McGhee is originally from McComb, Mississippi, and he’s got a chance to be a major contributor for his home-state program. Chris Jans began his head coaching career in the JUCO ranks and understands the importance of the level plays in the development of college basketball. McGhee is one of the many JUCO success stories, and he’ll make a big difference for Mississippi State this year. 

Key analytic: 3P%

Since the start of the Jans era, three-point shooting has been a thorn in the side of Mississippi State. Actually, it’s been an issue, repeatedly, since the last year of Ben Howland’s tenure. Since the 2021-22 season, these are the percentages from deep for Mississippi State and their respective D-I ranks in parentheses: 

2021-22: 29.5% (344th of 358 schools, last season with Ben Howland)

2022-23: 26.6% (363rd of 363, first season with Chris Jans)

2023-24: 32.1% (284th of 362)

2024-25: 31.4% (314th of 364)

The idea that this team was 344th of 358 D-I teams in 3P% during the 2021-22 season is rough, but fathomable. But how does one manage to follow up a placement of 344 of 358 with a ranking of 363 the next year? To repeat, there were 358 D-I teams playing basketball in 2022, and Mississippi State was 363rd at perimeter shooting in 2023. That’s crazy. 

But they’ve slightly improved since then, moving into the high 200s-low 300s. That’s still not a clip that lends itself to much postseason success, but let it be known it’s not Josh Hubbard’s fault. His 34.5 3P% was best on the team amongst players with 10+ attempts from deep. In fact, if Hubbard were a team, he’d be 152nd in D-I in terms of perimeter shooting. Not horrible by any means. But the rest of the Bulldogs combined to shoot just 29.9% from deep, which would’ve placed them at 350th.

Three-point shooting from other members of the team was a struggle last season, which is partially why the additions of Jayden Epps and Ja’Borri McGhee make a lot of sense. They can both facilitate, yes, but that duo also has the ability to shoot the ball consistently. Epps has improved from deep every season, and McGhee shot 40.8% from three last season with UAB. If these two can get going, it could spell good things for the Bulldogs’ offense. 

Mississippi State Basketball 2025-26 projections

Projected conference finish: 11th in the SEC

Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament Second Round Exit