March Madness returns to Raleigh for the first time since 2016. A couple of No. 1 seeds and the two-time defending champion looking to prove this season was not a fluke will make up the eight-team field.
Before the Lenovo Center gets rocking, the action in this region will actually get started in Dayton, OH. In a First Four matchup, Mount Saint Mary’s and American will do battle for the right to face the East Region’s No. 1 seed.
That team, the Duke Blue Devils, were rewarded with their 14th No. 1 seed after winning the ACC Tournament despite losing ACC Player of the Year Cooper Flagg to an lower body injury.
The four teams from the West Region are led by No. 1 seed Florida, who received their third No. 1 seed in program history after defeating Tennessee to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 2014.
One intriguing team that will make the trip to the Tar Heel state is the two-time defending National Champion UConn Huskies. Coming into the tournament as the No. 8 seed, this is the lowest seed a defending champion has received since the 2012 UConn team got the No. 9 seed in the South Region. That UConn team would lose in the first round to eight-seed Iowa State.
2025 NCAA Tournament Raleigh Region Simulation
First Four– Wed., Mar. 19 (game played at UD Arena in Dayton, OH)
16. Mount St. Mary’s (22-12, 12-8) vs. 16. American (22-12, 13-5) – 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV
Mount St. Mary’s will have to rely on getting rebounds off the glass if they want to advance into the main bracket. Keeping American off the foul line would also improve their chances. Despite senior Matt Rogers leading the way for the Eagles with 17.0 PPG, the Mountaineers balanced attacked will give them a close victory to snap a four-game losing streak in the series.
Kyle’s pick: Mount St. Mary’s
First Round – Fri., Mar. 21
9. Baylor (19-14, 10-10) vs. 8. Mississippi State (21-12, 8-10) – 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS
While Mississippi State ranks in the top 50 in points scored and one of the top 25 rebounding teams in the nation, their shooting from the line and beyond the arc puts them in a disadvantage. The Bears averaged 35.3% shooting from beyond the arc while Miami transfer Norchad Omier has continued to be an offensive force in Waco. Baylor will pull away in the second half to advance and win their second game in five meetings against the Bulldogs.
Kyle’s pick: 9. Baylor
16. Mount St. Mary’s vs. 1. Duke (31-3, 19-1) – 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS
In past seasons, losing a star player like Cooper Flagg would have put the Blue Devils on upset alert. Luckily for Duke fans having another star freshman in Kon Knueppel and veteran leadership of Tyrese Proctor helped lead Duke to the ACC Title. With Flagg playing, it is possible that he will be on a work-load restriction. This is a team that has averaged 82.7 PPG and has not let opponents score more than 75 points in 18 straight games.
Kyle’s pick: 1. Duke
16. Norfolk State (24-10, 11-3) vs. 1. Florida (30-4, 14-4) – 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT
Nothing can beat your first time making history. In their first tournament appearance in 2012, the Spartans upset No. 2-seed Missouri in the first round. Since then, their other two first round match-ups have been mismatches. This is a Gators team that rankes third in the nation in scoring offense, yet have allowed opponents to get over 75 points during their three-games in the SEC Tournament. Florida ended their magical run in the second round of 2012, and senior Walter Clayton Jr. will keep the Gators dancing.
Kyle’s pick: 1. Florida
9. Oklahoma (20-13, 6-12) vs. 8. UConn (23-10, 14-6) – 9:25 p.m. PT on TNT
All the talk was about whether Dan Hurley would reach historic status with a third straight national title. Then a trip to Maui changed the narrative for the Huskies when they went 0-3 in the Maul Invitational. Oklahoma, on the other hand, went from a undefeated non-conference slate to finishing 6-12 in conference play. While UConn is better on the boards, its Oklahoma’s three-point shooting that will be the difference.
Kyle’s pick: 9. Oklahoma
Second Round – Sun., Mar. 23
9. Baylor vs. 1. Duke– Time and Channel TBD
This would be the third all-time meeting between these two programs, with Duke winning both. The result on this matchup would depend on if Cooper Flagg does not have any setbacks during the first round. Baylor would give Duke all they can handle, but if ACC opponents could not stop the Blue Devils without Flagg, then neither would the Bears.
Kyle’s pick: 1. Duke
9. Oklahoma vs. 1. Florida– Time and Channel TBD
Prior to joining the SEC this season, Oklahoma had only played the Gators five times and was on a three-game winning streak. That changed in February when the Gators extended the Sooners losing streak to five games. In that meeting, Oklahoma was held to 38.8% from the field while turning the ball over 13 times. With the stakes this high, Florida will continue their match to a possible Final Four berth.
Kyle’s pick: 1. Florida