Xavier basketball is in a place no team wants to be on Selection Sunday, firmly on the Bubble.
What an interesting season it has been for this Xavier basketball team. They came into the season with lofty expectations with the return of Jerome Hunter and Zach Freemantle after losing both for the entire 2023-24 season to preseason injuries. They lost Desmond Claude to USC in the transfer portal, but Xavier basketball was able to reload with star transfer Ryan Conwell from Indiana State.
The non-conference was up and down, as Xavier basketball secured wins over power conference schools Wake Forest and South Carolina but had a blowout loss to Michigan and close loses to TCU and crosstown rival Cincinnati. Freemantle suffered an injury in the game against Cincinnati and unfortunately missed the opening 3 big east games. Two of which were difficult loses to Marquette and UConn where Xavier let two winnable games slip away.
Letting games slip away and missing opportunities continued to occur even with Freemantle returning from injury. An overtime loss to the Big East leader St. John’s coupled with a quarterfinal exit against Marquette in the Big East Tournament where they blew a 14 point lead may cost Xavier basketball a chance to go dancing.
GOLDEN EAGLES WIN‼️ pic.twitter.com/BnSMURBOP2
— BIG EAST MBB (@BIGEASTMBB) March 13, 2025
They certainly appear to be a tournament team as of late, winning their final seven games of the regular season and beating a NCAA Tournament bound Creighton Bluejays at home.
Xavier basketball fans will have to sweat it out during the upcoming Selection Sunday, wondering if they’ve done enough to make it. Here’s why Xavier fans should still feel good about their tournament chances.
Peaking at the right time
The committee has always said that they weigh every game the same regardless of if the game was played in November or in March. But the committee members are still human and after watching Xavier play basketball over the past month, it is clear that this is a NCAA Tournament-caliber team. Sean Miller said postgame regarding the outlook of his team on that currently sits on the bubble “over the last six to eight weeks, there aren’t too many teams across the country that has played as well as our group.”
This is a dangerous offensive juggernaut, led by Ryan Conwell who most recently played the game of his life, scoring a career high 38 points in their Quarterfinal loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. They have the third best scoring offense in the Big East and shoot an impressive 38% from beyond the arc. With a team that is this explosive on offense, they are more than capable of giving any team a scare should they make the Big Dance.
The positive metrics
Xavier basketball has the metrics of a team that could go dancing, they currently sit at 45th in the NET, 43rd in KenPom. The main blemish on their resume is only having 1 Quad win, beating Marquette on the road. The committee does favor teams that can beat good teams on the road and the Marquette win is holding up nicely at the moment. Being 1-9 in Quad 1 games is not a good thing, but Xavier can also boast that they have no “bad losses” with no dreaded Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses which several bubble teams have.
Their resume’s biggest strength besides their victory over Marquette is their 8-2 record in Quad 2 games. Not all Quad 2 games are created equal and Xavier has two very impressive home wins over a UConn team that is ranked 31st in the NET and Creighton team that is ranked at 38th. For reference, a Quad 2 win is beating a team ranked 31-75 at home, 50-100 on a neutral court, or 76-135 on the road. This makes these two victories borderline Quad 1 wins and should be taken into account and weighed more heavily than beating the 75th ranked team at home.
A very weak bubble
No team on the bubble has given themselves any favors and this year’s bubble is even more reason to never expand the NCAA Tournament. Teams like Ohio State and Texas who each have 15 losses are being considered for an at large bid which is crazy to even think about.
And North Carolina, who matches up very similarly to Xavier, is sitting at 1-11 in Quad 1 games with their win being at a neutral site compared to Xavier’s lone Quad 1 win which was on the road. And unlike Xavier, North Carolina has a Quad 3 home loss to Stanford which may ultimately prove to be the difference in Xavier getting in over North Carolina unless the Tar Heels can beat a Duke team that may be without their best player in Cooper Flagg.
The race between Xavier and North Carolina for potentially the final at large spot will be a fascinating one. Last season. Seton Hall’s win over UConn was not weighed heavily according to the committee because UConn played the second half without their star Donovan Clingan and was the committee’s selling point for snubbing Seton Hall. It will be interesting to see if the committee will stay consistent in this reasoning when talking about putting in a blue blood program like North Carolina if they can beat a Duke team that will be without their best player in Cooper Flagg.
Prediction: Xavier basketball will be playing in Dayton as the last team in.
[…] who just beat them during their Senior Day festivities in Milwaukee last weekend. This loss leaves Xavier firmly on the bubble and now all they can do is wait to see if they’ll hear their name called on Selection […]