Read more for our full Virginia vs SMU prediction and preview.
Virginia basketball returns to Charlottesville for an ACC matchup against SMU. This is the second time these teams have squared up this season. The Mustangs defeated the Cavaliers 63-51 on Dec. 7.
General Information:
Teams: Virginia (8-8, 1-4) and SMU (12-4, 3-2)
Tip time: 9 p.m. EST
Watch: ACC Network
Listen: Virginia Sports Radio Network
Latest on SMU basketball:
SMU is coming off a 93-71 victory over Georgia Tech on Saturday. The Mustangs started the game on a 11-2 run and never looked back. SMU held the Yellow Jackets to just 19 points in the first half and forced 22 turnovers.
In their first year in the ACC, the Mustangs were projected to finish 13th in the conference. However, SMU sits at seventh in the conference with a 3-2 ACC record. The Mustangs are currently in the “Next Four Out” of ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi’s bracket prediction.
Not much has changed since the last time Virginia and SMU faced off. The Mustangs make life difficult in the paint on both ends. They lead the ACC in rebounding per game (40.6), grab 35% of their missed shots (23rd in the country) and rank 20th in 2-point defense shooting percentage. Senior forward Matt Cross is fourth in the ACC with 8.8 rebounds per game.
Junior guard Boopie Miller leads the charge offensively, scoring 14.6 points per game and ranking fourth in the ACC with 5.9 assists per game. Junior guard B.J. Edwards is second in the conference with 2.4 steals per contest. The Cavs will have their hands full trying to stop the multidimensional attack.
Latest on Virginia basketball:
The Cavaliers are coming off a disastrous trip to the Pacific Coast. Virginia got blown out twice, losing 75-61 to Cal on Jan. 8 and 88-65 to Stanford on Saturday. Add on the 70-50 loss to Louisville on Jan. 4, Virginia has lost three straight for the first time since the 2020-21 season.
It’s been that kind of season for the Cavs. Injuries to sophomore guard Elijah Gertrude and redshirt freshman guard Christian Bliss and the departure of Jalen Warley following Tony Bennett’s sudden retirement have left Virginia limited in the backcourt. Junior guard Isaac McKneely and sophomore forward Blake Buchanan were supposed to be key members of this team but haven’t taken a step forward.
One of the few bright spots for Virginia this season has been the play of junior guard Andrew Rohde. He nearly fell out of the rotation last season in his first year in Charlottesville after transferring from St. Thomas-Minnesota because of subpar play, but he’s seemed much more comfortable this year. He’s attacked the rim offensively to create opportunities for himself or kick to a teammate in the corners, and has also knocked down open threes at 43% clip.
Stanford destroyed the packline defense Saturday. In the second half, the Cardinal scored 1.6 points per possession. The Cavaliers had no answer for anything, and gave up at least 80 points for the third time this season. From 2013-14 to 2023-24, Virginia gave up 80 points just eight times. For a program that prides itself on its defense, it has been a shocking step back.
The Cavs struggle mightily on the glass, ranking dead last in rebounds per game in the conference and 229th in the country in defensive rebound percentage at 71%. That’s not a recipe for success against a great rebounding team like SMU. In their matchup in December, the Mustangs outrebounded the Cavaliers 36-25 and snagged eight offensive boards. It’ll be a long night for Virginia, which will lose four straight for the first time since February 2017.