Tennessee basketball under Rick Barnes has been a perennial contender, and just broke the seal with an Elite Eight appearance. Can they improve again in 2024-25?
The tradition continues! CBB Review is again ranking the top 100 teams heading into the new college basketball season. Each day, we will reveal the next team until we reach the team slotted at number one. Up next: Tennessee basketball.
Tennessee will be without Dalton Knecht after a consensus All-American season, after the team’s MVP got drafted in the first round by the Los Angeles Lakers. But fear not, Volunteers fans. Chaz Lanier has arrived. The transfer from North Florida has a similar build (6 feet, 5 inches) and statistical prowess (44.0 3PT%) to the former Northern Colorado star, and he’s the right man to fill the void.
Elsewhere, Zakai Zeigler is seemingly 100% after his scary knee injury in 2023. That’s phenomenal news for Knoxville, but not so much for the rest of the SEC. Having a point guard with the ability to both facilitate and defend at elite levels, all while being coached by Rick Barnes, is certainly a plus. Look for both names, Lanier and Zeigler, on the All-SEC teams when the season finishes.
Big man Jonas Aidoo transferred to Arkansas, which makes January 4th’s tilt with the Razorbacks that much more heated. What a way to kick off the conference season. Filling that void down low (which also includes the loss of Josiah-Jordan James) is a duo of transfers. Igor Miličić Jr. (Charlotte) and Felix Okpara (Ohio State) have joined the team as the likely starters at the 4 and 5, respectively.
Jahmai Mashack, one of the most underrated defenders in the region, is coming back. He has a career defensive box plus/minus of +5.7 and a career steal percentage of 3.8%. Offensive spark Jordan Gainey and productive wing/forward Hofstra transfer Darlinstone Dubar will be the first players off the bench. The Vols have one of the best top seven in the conference, making their floor quite high.
In terms of depth, Cameron Carr, J.P. Estrella, Bishop Boswell, and Cade Phillips bring up the end of the rotation. Tennessee does not have the same amount of depth of other squads in the conference (looking at you, Missouri’s 15ish man rotation), but their star power (especially Zeigler and Lanier) is evident. This is a team that should be ranked within the top 25 the entire year, and likely will end up amongst the top five teams in the SEC standings by mid-March.
Click here to learn more about our preseason top 100 teams heading into the 2024-25 college basketball season.
Head coach: Rick Barnes (10th season at Tennessee, 38th season overall)
2023-24 record: 27-9 (14-4)
2024 postseason finish: Lost to Purdue (72-66) in Elite 8 of NCAA Tournament
Notable departures:
- Dalton Knecht (21.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, 39.7 3P%)
- Jonas Aidoo (11.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.8 BPG)
- Josiah-Jordan James (8.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.9 APG)
- Santiago Vescovi (6.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 SPG)
- Tobe Awaka (5.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 0.3 APG)
Notable non-conference games:
- vs. Virginia (Nov. 21, Nassau)
- vs. Syracuse (Dec. 3)
- vs. Miami (FL) (Dec. 10, New York City)
- at Illinois (Dec. 14)
Projected Rotation
PG: Zakai Zeigler (5-9, 172, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 11.8 PPG, 6.1 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.7 SPG
SG: Chaz Lanier (6-5, 207, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 19.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 44.0 3P% (North Florida)
SF: Jahmai Mashack (6-4, 202, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 4.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.8 SPG
PF: Igor Miličić Jr. (6-10, 225, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 12.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.7 APG, 37.6 3P% (Charlotte)
C: Felix Okpara (6-11, 235, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 6.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 0.5 APG, 2.4 BPG, 58.7 FG% (Ohio State)
6: Jordan Gainey (6-4, 190, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 6.8 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.2 APG
7: Darlinstone Dubar (6-6, 220, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 17.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.2 SPG (Hofstra)
8: J.P. Estrella (6-11, 250, So.)
2023-24 stats: 1.6 PPG, 0.8 RPG, 0.1 APG, 5.0 MPG
9: Cameron Carr (6-6, 189, So.)
2023-24 stats: 1.6 PPG, 0.6 RPG, 0.5 APG, 4.3 MPG
10: Bishop Boswell (6-4, 203, Fr.)
247Sports Composite #96 ranked recruit
11: Cade Phillips (6-9, 216, So.)
2023-24 stats: 0.9 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.4 APG, 6.0 MPG
Tennessee Basketball team MVP: Zakai Zeigler
Zakai Zeigler is at full health. Again, that sentence should scare opposing SEC defenses. And offenses. The three-time SEC All-Defense selection has been Tennessee’s heartbeat for the past several seasons. It’s often said that undersized point guards need to have heart to succeed. There’s no question about the Long Island native’s motivation. After tearing his ACL in February 2023, he suited up for all 36 games last season for the Vols. (Oh, and won the SEC Defensive Player of the Year award.)
The SEC leader in assists the past two seasons with 379, (Wade Taylor IV is second with 282) Zeigler is entering his fourth season in the Rick Barnes School of Basketball. In that time, he’s shared the court with three NBA players, but this could be the season that the weight of the team falls upon his shoulders for the first time. If he’s up for the challenge (all signs point to yes), this Vols team will go far.
Tennessee Basketball make-or-break player: Chaz Lanier
I’m going to mirror a point I made in the SEC Preview and the intro to this article, but Lanier has a very good chance to step into Dalton Knecht’s shoes without all too much friction. That would probably be an insane sentence to read this time last year, when Knecht was transferring in from Greeley, Colorado, and Chaz Lanier was entering his senior season at North Florida after averaging 4.7 PPG as a junior.
The rest of the country, who may or may not have witnessed the pure excitement that was ASUN basketball last year, might not know how good Lanier is! Please believe me when I say the sky is the limit. Or more geographically accurate, Kuwohi is the limit. Do not be surprised when Lanier ends up on an All-SEC team. Averaging less than 5.0 PPG over the course of three seasons for a low-major player can either kill their motivation or turn it all the way up. Clearly, Lanier is motivated. And clearly, he’s ready to take on the SEC.
Key analytic: Turnovers per game
With Zeigler at the helm, Tennessee took care of the ball. The Volunteers only committed 10.2 turnovers per game, 3rd-lowest in the conference, behind just South Carolina and Texas A&M. They only got better as the year went on, too. From January 20 to March 31, Tennessee committed just 8.8 turnovers per game as Zeigler continued to get back into the swing of things.
Of the Volunteers with >100 minutes played last season, only J.P Estrella committed 3+ turnovers/40 minutes, which is not a horrible mark to begin with. To put it into perspective, LSU and Mississippi State both had four players hit the threshold. This year, with Zeigler back, Gainey back (1.9 turnovers/40 minutes), and Lanier in the fold at the two (1.9 turnovers/40 minutes), there’s no reason to think that turning over the ball will be any type of issue for the Vols. Their team turnover/steal ratio was the lowest in the conference at just 1.31 turnovers/1 steal.
Tennessee Basketball 2024-25 projections
Projected conference finish: 3rd in the SEC
Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament Final Four Exit