Mississippi State basketball has made the tournament two straight years under Chris Jans but still don’t have a win to show for it. Is this the year they break through?
The tradition continues! CBB Review is again ranking the top 100 teams heading into the new college basketball season. Each day, we will reveal the next team until we reach the team slotted at number one. Up next: Mississippi State basketball.
After a 20-win season in Chris Jans’s first year at the helm in 2022-23, the Bulldogs had high expectations last season. Those expectations only rose after a 6-0 start saw Mississippi State move to No. 21 in the AP Poll in late November.
But the good vibes didn’t last long, with two consecutive losses to Georgia Tech and Southern. Despite the emergence of high-scoring freshman guard Josh Hubbard and wins over Tennessee (twice) and Auburn, the Bulldogs wouldn’t return to the rankings for the rest of the year.
While they would secure an eight seed in the NCAA Tournament, they unfortunately drew what is almost assuredly the worst draw in the modern history of the Big Dance: Tom Izzo in the first round. The Bulldogs would fall 51-69 to the Spartans in the Round of 64.
This offseason, Jans lost star big man Tolu Smith, who had patrolled the frontcourt since the Ben Howland era. Additionally, speedy guard Shakeel Moore is gone, along with Dashawn Davis, D.J. Jeffries, and Jimmy Bell Jr..
The good news? Hubbard has returned to Starkville for Year Two. (It’s worth noting that he is now listed as 5’11”, as opposed to last year’s height of 5’10”.) Joining him in the backcourt is former Penn State point guard Kanye Clary, who was let go from the Nittany Lions in February by head coach Mike Rhoades. Perhaps a change of scenery will do the guard well, as he flashed plenty of scoring talent last season.
Three other high-profile Power Five transfers are joining the Bulldogs to fill voids as well, with Claudell Harris Jr. (Boston College), RJ Melendez (Georgia), and Riley Kugel (Florida) all joining the fold. Kugel, a former projected NBA draft pick and SEC All-Freshman selection, may be the most exciting transfer addition to eastern Mississippi this decade.
Other transfer joining the team are centers Jeremy Foumena (Rhode Island) and Michael Nwoko (Miami). And Hubbard isn’t the only returning Bulldog; Do-it-all-athlete Cameron Matthews is back, along with KeShawn Murphy, Shawn Jones Jr., Gai Chol, and Adrian Meyers.
Rounding out the roster are freshmen additions Dellquan Warren and EJ Paymon, both of which have a path to major playing time in their first years in the program. This team is intriguing, and after two years of missed expectations in the tournament followed by a solid transfer class, the “post-hype sleeper” label could be applied here. I’m not particularly a fan of the term but it does seem to encapsulate this squad quite well.
Click here to learn more about our preseason top 100 teams heading into the 2024-25 college basketball season.
Head coach: Chris Jans (3rd season at Mississippi State, 9th season overall)
2023-24 record: 21-14 (8-10)
2024 postseason finish: Lost to Michigan State (69-51) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament
Notable departures:
- Tolu Smith (15.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.3 APG)
- Shakeel Moore (7.9 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.8 APG)
- Dashawn Davis (6.6 PPG, 2.7 APG, 1.8 RPG)
- Jimmy Bell Jr. (5.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 0.5 APG)
- D.J. Jeffries (6.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.6 APG)
Notable non-conference games:
- vs. Utah (Nov. 17)
- Arizona Tipoff (Nov. 28-29)
- vs. Pitt (Dec. 4)
- vs. McNeese State (Dec. 14)
- at Memphis (Dec. 21)
Projected Rotation
PG: Kanye Clary (5-11, 190, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 16.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.8 APG (Penn State)
SG: Josh Hubbard (5-11, 190, So.)
2023-24 stats: 17.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.7 APG
SF: Riley Kugel (6-5, 210, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 9.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG (Florida)
PF: Cameron Matthews (6-7, 235, Gr.-Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 9.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.9 APG
C: KeShawn Murphy (6-10, 230, Rs.-Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 4.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 APG
6: Claudell Harris Jr. (6-4, 200, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 13.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.1 APG (Boston College)
7: Michael Nwoko (6-10, 245, So.)
2023-24 stats: 2.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.1 APG (Miami-Fla)
8: RJ Melendez (6-7, 210, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 9.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 0.8 APG (Georgia)
9: Dellquan Warren (6-2, 180, Fr.)
247Sports Composite #174 ranked recruit
10: Jeremy Foumena (6-11, 250, R-So.)
2023-24 stats: 5.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0.4 APG
11: Shawn Jones Jr. (6-5, 205, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 4.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.0 APG
12: Gai Chol (7-0, 245, So.)
2023-24 stats: 2.1 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.0 APG
13: EJ Paymon (6-9, 230, Fr.)
247Sports Composite three-star recruit
14: Adrian Meyers (6-6, 210, So.)
2023-24 stats: 1.0 PPG, 0.5 RPG, 0.0 APG
Mississippi State Basketball Team MVP: Josh Hubbard
Hubbard is possibly the most electric player not just in the state of Mississippi, but the Deep South as a whole. The now-5’11” spark plug and one-time Ole Miss commit came off the bench early last season after setting Mississippi high-school scoring records, and proceeded to do the same to college defenses. The college basketball landscape’s first real introduction to the diminutive guard was against Northwestern in November, in a game where the Bulldogs beat the Wildcats 66-57 thanks to 29 points from Hubbard, who went 9-14 from the field and 7-7 from the line.
Despite his offensive numbers, (11 of 13 games in double-figures) Hubbard didn’t receive his first collegiate start until January 27 against Auburn. No surprise, the Bulldogs ended up winning that game, with Hubbard scoring 17. He didn’t look back from there, averaging 19.8 PPG in the 16 games that he started last season, with performances of 34 against Kentucky, 32 against LSU, and eight games of 20+ points in that span. Hubbard could stand to improve defensively, but he’s got all the skills necessary to continue dominating offensively in the SEC. Teaming up with Kanye Clary in the backcourt might make defenses see double, and opposing teams need to stay on their toes.
Mississippi State Basketball make-or-break player: Riley Kugel
At this time last year, Kugel was being talked about as a possible first round draft pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. However, despite Florida reaching into the AP Poll and racking up 24 wins on the year, Kugel didn’t have the year that many expected from him, seeing drops in PPG, TS%, eFG%, and advanced metrics. His turnover percentage rose as well. Draft talk dissipated quietly, and transfer rumors swirled after the season ended. Kugel ended up staying in the SEC, but now will be playing for the maroon and white in Starkville rather than the blue and orange in Alachua County.
There’s no denying that the talent Kugel showed his freshman year is still there. Sometimes, and this could go for all aspects of life, a person needs a change of scenery. Kugel’s swap to Mississippi State might be exactly what the doctor ordered for the one-time draft prospect, and if the trio of Clary, Hubbard, and Kugel play to their highest ability, there’s no stopping the back three Bulldogs.
Key analytic: 3PT%
For the second year in a row, we’re at our laptops complaining about this team’s lack of perimeter efficiency. To be fair, the Bulldogs did improve between the 2022-23 season and last season, moving up their 3PT% from 26.6% to 32.1%. But that’s still not great, despite the jump. In fact, it was 282nd in D-1, which qualifies as “not so good”. And if you were to take away Josh Hubbard’s numbers, the team’s clip from deep would sink to 30.0%, T-338th in D-1. Again, not great.
But, Kanye Clary joins the fold, a 37.7% shooter from deep for Penn State last year. Hubbard returns, and what if Riley Kugel can recapture his freshman-year magic? All of a sudden, this team could shoot. Claudell Harris Jr. shot 37.0% from deep last season. Clearly, Chris Jans made it his priority to add shooting depth. Yes, that’s exactly the same strategy as last season, and we know that it produced mixed results, but it least he’s attempting to address it. That’s a positive sign, and I don’t see a scenario in which this team shoots below 30.0% from deep, something I couldn’t say the last two seasons.
Mississippi State Basketball 2024-25 projections
Projected conference finish: 10th in the SEC
Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Exit