Tony Bennett looks to implement stylistic tweaks at Virginia basketball to improve offensive production for a transfer-heavy rotation.
The tradition continues! CBB Review is again ranking the top 100 teams heading into the new college basketball season. Each day, we will reveal the next team until we reach the team slotted at number one. Up next: Virginia basketball.
If you consider that Cavaliers were recently one of the best programs in the country in the 2010s, it has been a rough stretch after their championship in 2019. Their regular season dominance has not quite been the same and the ‘Hoos last tournament win was when they cut the nets in Minneapolis.
2023-24 had quite a few embarrassing moments. Virginia failed to reach 50 points four different times, including a notorious blowout loss in the First Four to Colorado State. The Cavaliers finished 207th in Torvik’s offensive efficiency as a result. Of course, their signature Pack Line defense helped propel the Cavaliers to their ninth top-three ACC finish in the past 11 seasons, so the struggles are all relative.
Still, it is clear that the program needs to modernize, and thankfully, Tony Bennett finally realizes that too. He has made it an emphasis to every recruit that they will be playing with more tempo and spacing. The incoming personnel, four of which are transfers, reflect that sentiment. Dai Dai Ames (Iowa State), T.J. Power (Duke), and Jalen Warley (Florida State) all played in a system that emphasized these principles. Elijah Saunders (San Diego State) should fit in seamlessly as well.
There is a wide range of possible outcomes this season for UVA, but Bennett has proven that he intends to do what is necessary to remain a highly successful coach in college basketball for the long-term.
Head coach:Â Tony Bennett (19th season overall, 16th at Virginia)
2023-24 record:Â 23-11
2024 postseason finish:Â Lost to Colorado State (67-42) in First Four
Notable departures:Â
- Reece Beekman (14.3 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.6 RPG, 2.0 SPG)
- Ryan Dunn (8.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 0.8 APG, 2.3 BPG, 1.3 SPG)
Notable non-conference games:Â
- vs. Villanova (Nov. 16)
- vs. Tennessee (Nov. 21)
- vs. Baylor OR St. John’s (Nov. 22)
- at Florida (Dec. 4)
- vs. Memphis (Dec. 18)
Projected Rotation
PG: Dai Dai Ames (6-1, 185, So.)
2023-24 stats: 5.2 PPG, 2.o APG, 1.1 RPG (Kansas State)
SG: Isaac McKneely (6-4, 179, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 12.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 44.5 3P%
SF: Jalen Warley (6-6, 200, So.)
2023-24 stats: 7.5 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG (Florida State)
PF: Elijah Saunders (6-8, 240, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 6.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 0.8 APG (San Diego State)
C: Blake Buchanan (6-11, 215, So.)
2023-24 stats: 3.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.4 APG
6: T.J. Power (6-9, 185, So.)
2023-24 stats: 2.7 PPG, 0.7 RPG, 0.2 APG (Duke)
7: Taine Murray (6-5, 207, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 3.3 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 0.9 APG
8: Andrew Rohde (6-6, 186, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 4.3 PPG, 2.7 APG, 1.8 RPG
9: Jacob Cofie (6-9, 225, Fr.)
247Sports Composite # 104 ranked recruit
10: Ishan Sharma (6-4, 185, Fr.)
247Sports Composite # 236 ranked recruit
Virginia Basketball team MVP: Isaac McKneely
The bulk of the Virginia roster is unknown commodities with upside that will have to earn their roles over time. Isaac McKneely, however, is the primary returner who has proven he can be a dangerous weapon at this level.
McKneely is first and foremost, a sniper. He has a quick release allowing him to get shots off in tight spaces and unlimited range. McKneely shot 44.5% from beyond the arc last year, and 46.1% on catch-and-shoot threes, per Shot Quality. As he continues to improve on the defensive end and as a well-rounded offensive player (cutting and curling off-ball, finishing around the rim, court vision, etc.), he will undoubtedly be the most valuable player on this team.
Virginia Basketball make-or-break player: T.J. Power
There are so many reasons for UVA’s volatile range of outcomes this upcoming season. The only way I see this team being great is if T.J. Power plays like the five-star status that he was awarded in the 2023 class.
Power was buried on the bench for a very good Duke team and now has a much greater opportunity in Charlottesville. At the very least, he provides a combination of athleticism and shooting that Bennett has lacked in their frontcourt since that championship roster. The question is whether he can further develop into an elite defender and shot-creator. At Duke last season, he was somewhat slow with his footwork which is concerning, especially in a scheme that relies on help defense. But that is coachable, while his length is not.
Power is more of a project than an NBA-ready prospect. The question is how much we see in his first year getting significant minutes.
Key analytic: Free throw percentage
I already beat the dead horse about pace and offensive style so let’s talk about another Achilles Heel: FREE throws. The Cavaliers were dreadful from the charity stripe last season, ranking 354th nationally at 63.7%.
Virginia basketball had games where they went 1-for-11 and 8-for-18 at the line. Somehow, they won both. In the ACC Semifinals, however, the ‘Hoos were not so fortunate. They missed four free throws in the final 80 seconds, including McKneely (85% on the season) side-rimming the front end of a one-and-one which led directly to NC State’s regulation buzzer beater. This improbable comeback by the Wolfpack was the beginning of their Cinderella story.
The bottom line is you have to convert on free throws to win close games when it matters. It is typically hard to determine “clutchness” due to such a small sample size, but it is fair to say the moment got too big at times for the Cavaliers when closing out games at the stripe.
Is it a form issue, or is it completely mental? I’m not a coach so I cannot say. What I can assure you is that this must be a point of emphasis this offseason.
Virginia Basketball 2024-25 projections
Projected conference finish: 5th in the ACC
Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Exit