As crazy as this sounds, we are 46 days away from college basketball. Just a month and a half out. But it’s not too early to talk about overrated college basketball teams.
College football is well underway, so now the countdown begins. Teams have their rosters set and have been engaging in offseason workouts. This is also the time where preseason rankings start to circulate. The annual “Way-Too-Early” predictions that are made before the first two teams tip off in November.
Let’s go over some teams that may be ranked a little too high on ESPN’s preseason rankings. These are five overrated college basketball teams heading into 2024-25.
5. UConn Huskies (ESPN: 3)
The Huskies come in at number five on this list because head coach Dan Hurley has already proven that he can put together a title contender (and title winner) after a mass exodus of talent.
UConn won the 2023 National Championship with future NBA players Jordan Hawkins, Andre Jackson Jr., and Adama Sanogo, leaving the Huskies with a huge hole in their production. Luckily for Connecticut, UConn returned Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban, and a young Donovan Clingan to rebuild the core for the repeat tour.
Cam Spencer transferred in from Rutgers and five-star freshman Stephon Castle was thrown in the mix, and all of a sudden UConn was on track to defend their title.
Will lightning strike… thrice? Should we even be doubting Dan Hurley at this point?
Probably not. But hey, it’s worth a shot.
Much like last offseason, the Huskies lose a lot. Spencer? Gone. Newton? Gone. Clingan and Castle leave early for the NBA. This time, UConn is left with one returning starter in Karaban. Hurley does bring in transfer Aiden Mahaney from Saint Mary’s to provide shooting, but question marks surround the forwards. Hassan Diarra had a nice tournament, does he answer those questions?
It won’t take long to find out. UConn will play in a stacked Maui Invitational at the beginning of the year. The college basketball community will find out then whether or not the rest of the nation stands a chance in 2025.
4. Creighton Bluejays (ESPN: 15)
Creighton was an interesting case in 2023-24.
The Bluejays were one of just three teams to defeat the eventual-champion UConn Huskies, and did it in convincing fashion (85-66). They also lost to Butler, Villanova, UNLV, and Colorado State.
Creighton finished the regular season ranked 13th in the nation, earning the 2-seed in the Big East Tournament. Then the Bluejays were upset by 7-seed Providence in its only tournament game.
Then Creighton went to the Sweet Sixteen.
Sure, the team was talented. But Creighton was inconsistent, and showed it for most of the early season. Now the Bluejays lose their top two scorers in Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander.
I won’t spend too much time on this one. Head coach Greg McDermott always seems to put a good team out on the floor. But Creighton gives college basketball fans a lot to worry about after last season.
3. Tennessee Volunteers (ESPN: 13)
I’m sorry, did Dalton Knecht return and no one tell me?
Am I going to credit Tennessee’s season to just one player? Of course not. Am I going to say that the same group of guys looks a helluva lot different without him? Absolutely.
And it’s not the same group of guys.
Jonas Aidoo is off to Arkansas. The Vols lose five of their top seven scorers and return just 34% of their offense in the form of seven players. Only one of those returners (Zakai Ziegler) averaged double figures. In fact, Ziegler is the only player who averaged over 7 PPG.
The newcomers include transfers Chaz Lanier and Darlinstone Dubar, two guys who saw a ton of success at the mid-major level. But this is the SEC, and last year the conference gave the Big12 a run for its money. Not to mention the additions of Texas and Oklahoma make winning in conference play that much harder.
The Vols certainly have their work cut out for them.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (ESPN: 16)
Speaking of teams losing a game-changer…
Depending on who you ask, they’ll tell you that two-time AP, Naismith, and Wooden Player of the Year Zach Edey stat-padded Purdue all the way to the championship game last season (I mean, seriously. I expect more from you guys). Nonetheless, the Boilermakers lived and died by Zach Edey’s production, both in the paint and on the glass.
Now Edey is off to the NBA, hoping to continue proving his doubters wrong in the professional ranks. This leaves Purdue in a bad spot, and not just in terms of scoring.
Head coach Matt Painter needs to reshape the program’s identity.
Purdue’s key to success for the past two seasons was pretty simple: Give Edey the ball, let him score, and if the double comes kick it out for three. Purdue was one of the elite three-point shooting teams in the nation last season (2nd in nation). That’s pretty easy to do when defenses need to crash the paint to slow down college basketball’s 7-foot-4 Shaquille O’Neal.
The kicker: Painter is bringing in 7-foot-3 freshman Daniel Jacobsen in the hopes of recreating him.
Edey, however, took two years to develop into the force that he was. Painter eased him in, only giving the center 30+ minutes per game starting his junior year. Now the question is whether or not Jacobsen will get that same treatment. Will Painter be eager to get back to the Final Four? Will that take a toll on the freshman?
Or will Purdue focus more on halfcourt sets to get shooters open?
Either way, Purdue has a ton to prove. Losing the nation’s best player two-years running, as well as five other upperclassmen, is undeserving of a top-20 preseason ranking.
1. Arkansas Razorbacks (ESPN: 14)
John Calipari broke the internet over Final Four weekend by announcing he would be leaving Kentucky to take the helm at Arkansas. Calipari has a long list of accolades in his illustrious career and is expected to turn things around in Fayetteville.
Okay, I’m going to say it. Prepare yourself.
John Calipari in 2024 is not the John Calipari of the early 2010s.
I do not intend to say that Calipari is incapable of running a program. He is one of the best in the business, he’s a household name for a reason. But his style of coaching and program-building took a hit when the transfer portal took college athletics by storm.
When the Wildcats won the national championship in 2012, it was the era of the “one-and-done.” The NBA wanted youth, and players wanted to go to the NBA. Coaches needed to get as much production out of each player they recruited in just one year… and Calipari is a recruiting savant.
That 2011-12 Kentucky team included four five-star recruits, three of whom entered the NBA Draft (Marquis Teague, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Anthony Davis). That team lost just two games by a combined eight points en route to a national championship.
The following season, Calipari reloaded with another three five-stars, as well as four-star recruit Willie Cauley-Stein. After a disappointing end to the season, Kentucky replaced the six departures with one of the greatest recruiting classes of all time in 2013 (which included Julius Randle and the Harrison twins) and then added Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Tyler Ulis, and Trey Lyles for the 2014-15 team.
That team didn’t lose a single game until the Final Four.
That era in college basketball was dominated by Calipari because he has mastered the art of recruiting and has mastered the X’s and O’s. With enough five-star and four-star talent, one of those teams was bound to strike gold (and two of the four did). College basketball adapted, though, and with the transfer portal and NIL becoming more and more crucial to a program’s success, teams now look for physical and mental development over the promise of a high-school standout.
It’s a long-winded explanation to say this: Calipari has been trying too long to keep his method of recruiting alive when he should be focusing on keeping his players on campus.
I’m rooting for John Calipari. Too many great coaches have left the game because of these new-fangled rules. Jim Boeheim is on record saying he’s happy he doesn’t have to deal with it anymore. Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams left before NIL and the portal took over completely. Great coaches build great programs and lead to the culture that is college athletics. I hope John Calipari can stand the test of time and turn Arkansas into a national power.
But by NO means does an Arkansas team that went 16-17 last season deserve a Top 25 preseason spot just because they picked up a big-name coach with no recent success. Absolutely not.