Back in the bayou, LSU basketball and Matt McMahon return for another year in the SEC after a hot finish to last season.
The tradition continues! CBB Review is again ranking the top 100 teams heading into the new college basketball season. Each day, we will reveal the next team until we reach the team slotted at number one. Up next: LSU basketball.
After finishing the 2022-23 season with a 2-16 record in SEC games, expectations weren’t exceptionally high for the Bayou Bengals. That mirrored the start of the season for LSU, who started 6-5 in non-conference play and fell to 12-12 after a road loss to Florida in mid-February.
Something clicked after that defeat, however, as the Tigers immediately turned around and won two ranked matchups against South Carolina and Kentucky, finishing the year 7th in the conference with a 9-9 SEC record. Only South Carolina managed a larger conference improvement (4 wins to 13) than Matt McMahon’s group did last year, going from just two wins in 2022-23 to nine this previous season. Though they were invited to the NIT, the Tigers lost to North Texas in the first round.
Though McMahon lost Jalen Cook, Jordan Wright, Will Baker, and Trae Hannibal in the offseason, a large percentage of production returns, notably Tyrell Ward and Jalen Reed on the wings/frontcourt.
In the case of the backcourt, the Tigers dipped their paws into the portal to grab Jordan Sears (UT-Martin) and Cam Carter (Kansas State), respectively the presumptive starters at the 1 and 2. A trio of talented freshmen (guards Curtis Givens III and Vyctorius Miller, along with forward Robert Miller III) join the roster, while Derek Fountain, Mike Williams III, Daimion Collins, and Corey Chest all return. Williams III could be a major breakout candidate, as he truly shined at times last year.
Also joining the team are transfers Dji Bailey (Richmond) and Noah Boyde (McCook CC), who should provide added depth for a good Tigers team. Will LSU improve by seven games again in conference games? That would be a difficult task, but it’s certainly possible that this team improves from last year’s .500 mark. They’ve got a veteran core with an added group of talented freshmen. Ward, Sears, and Carter could all blossom into all-conference players.
Click here to learn more about our preseason top 100 teams heading into the 2024-25 college basketball season.
Head coach: Matt McMahon (3rd season at LSU and 10th overall)
2023-24 record: 17-16 (9-9)
2024 postseason finish: Lost to North Texas (84-77) in the NIT First Round
Notable departures:
- Jalen Cook (15.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG)
- Jordan Wright (15.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.5 APG)
- Will Baker (11.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.8 APG)
- Trae Hannibal (7.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.0 APG)
Notable non-conference games:
- at Kansas State (Nov. 14)
- vs. Pitt (Nov. 22)
- vs. Florida State (Dec. 3)
Projected Rotation
PG: Jordan Sears (5-11, 185, Sr.)
2023-2024 stats: 21.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.5 APG (UT-Martin)
SG: Cam Carter (6-3, 190, Sr.)
2023-2024 stats: 14.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.6 APG (Kansas State)
SF: Tyrell Ward (6-6, 195, Jr.)
2023-2024 stats: 9.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.8 APG
PF: Jalen Reed (6-10, 240, Jr.)
2023-2024 stats: 7.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 0.9 APG
C: Robert Miller III (6-10, 220, Fr.)
247Sports Composite #66 ranked recruit
6: Mike Williams III (6-3, 180, So.)
2023-24 stats: 7.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.2 SPG
7: Derek Fountain (6-10, 220, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 5.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 0.5 APG
8: Vyctorius Miller (6-5, 185, Fr.)
247Sports Composite #60 ranked recruit
9: Daimion Collins (6-9, 200, Rs.-Jr.)
2023-2024 stats: 4.3 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 0.0 APG
10: Dji Bailey (6-5, 195, Gr.-Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 10.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.2 APG (Richmond)
11: Corey Chest (6-8, 220, Rs.-Fr.)
247Sports Composite #121 ranked recruit (2023)
12: Noah Boyde (7-0, 245, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 12.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 0.8 APG (McCook CC)
13: Curtis Givens III (6-3, 185, Fr.)
247Sports Composite #83 ranked recruit
LSU Basketball Team MVP: Tyrell Ward
One big factor in the Tigers’ late-season surge was the improved performance of the sophomore from Baltimore. In LSU’s first 20 games of the season, Ward was given 19.0 MPG while averaging 7.4 PPG on a 54.2 TS% rate. He collected seven double-digit scoring performances in that span. However, over the last 11 games of the season, Ward averaged 26.0 MPG, 12.2 PPG, raised his TS% to 61.7%, and equaled his number of double-digit scoring games (7).
An added comfortability from deep was part of the jump in productivity. In his first 20 games, Ward shot 38.9% from three-point range. That’s not bad by any means. But he really broke out starting in the home loss to Alabama. From that point on, hit a three in every remaining game, averaging 2.2 3PM per game on a 44.4% clip. Of Ward’s ten starts last year, eight of them came over the last nine games of the season, during which LSU beat two ranked opponents. (Ward provided the game-winner against Kentucky in the late February victory.)
The analytics loved Ward as well. He posted the highest box plus/minus (5.1) of any player on the team, and plays a very calculated, disciplined brand of basketball on defense juxtaposed to an aggressive offensive game. Ward’s fouls/100 possessions (4.1) trailed only Carlos Stewart (2.7) on last year’s Tiger squad. He takes care of the ball (just an 8.9% turnover rate) and has the length to create a mismatch on offense if the opponent sends a guard to cover him.
In conference games, Ward led LSU in win shares/40 minutes by a healthy margin. The gap between his .126 mark and the 2nd-highest mark on the team, Hunter Dean’s .103, was larger than the gap between Dean and the 7th-best mark, Will Baker’s .085. Ward’s PER in SEC games was also high at 19.7, the 2nd-highest mark on the team behind Jalen Cook. This year, with Cook, Jordan Wright, and Will Baker gone, Ward will be one of the most involved players on the Tiger team in 2024. If they end up going dancing, look for Ward’s name on the All-SEC list and mock drafts.
LSU Basketball make-or-break player: Jordan Sears
Sears joins the team from UT-Martin, making the jump to the Power 5 from the single-bid OVC. However, the Florida native should be up for the task of navigating the SEC, considering the damage he dealt on opponents while with the Skyhawks. Sears scored exactly 34 points on four separate occasions last year, doing so against North Alabama, SIUE, Tennessee State, and, most impressively, against Morehead State in the OVC conference tournament.
He’s listed at just 5’11”, but Sears’ height is not much of a detriment. He collected 3+ steals in four games last year, including a five-theft performance against Tennessee State. Sears added seven rebounds, six assists, and 14 points in that victory. While he’s got big shoes to fill with the departure of Jalen Cook, Sears is up for the challenge. He could be a major offensive threat, and at the very least, a stable backcourt addition and veteran presence.
Key analytic: Opponent steals per game
Taking care of the ball seemed to be, (quite clearly) an issue for last year’s LSU basketball team. Opponents averaged 8.2 steals per game against McMahon’s squad, good (bad?) for 15th-most in Division 1. What was the main culprit? Tempo? Maybe. The Tigers pushed the ball at the 73rd-highest speed in the country. But that shouldn’t equate to a bottom-20 mark in opponent steals.
Of the top four-highest turnover percentages on the team, (Hannibal, Fountain, Reed, and Williams III) three return. However, Jalen Cook, Jordan Wright, and Will Baker provided 4.5 turnovers per game for the Tigers, 34.1% of the turnover burden. There’s certainly an opportunity for LSU to limit their turnovers this year, but the two newest backcourt additions, Sears and Carter each had averages of 3.0 turnovers per game or higher. If the Tigers want to get back to the dance, they’ll need to have a cleaner overall offense. The jury is still out.
LSU Basketball 2024-25 projections
Projected conference finish: 15th in the SEC
Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Appearance