CBB Rank 2024: No. 94, Cal Basketball

When Mark Fox took over as head coach in 2019, there was a little hope after he the team went 7-11 in conference play. In the three years following that, they’d win a total of 10 conference games. In comes Mark Madsen. In his first year, Madsen almost matched that going 9-11 in conference play with California basketball.

Now, 9-11 in conference play and 13-19 overall isn’t much to celebrate, but it’s a step in the right direction for this program. However, he’ll have to do it with a completely different roster, as this team only returns 1% of their minutes from last year. That’s right, one percent.

They bring in Mady Sissoko from Michigan State. There was a lot of promise for him, but he never seemed to reach his potential at Michigan State. Hopefully, a change of scenery can unlock that. They also bring in two high-scoring mid-major guys in Rytis Petratis and BJ Omot. They’ll need to fill Jalon Tyson’s scoring from last year, and one of those guys can do just that.

An interesting situation is Jovan Blacksher Jr. Blacksher was at one point the WAC preseason player of the year, but after a season-ending knee injury, he hasn’t been able to get back to that level. If he can, the Bears become even more dangerous.

Christian Tucker and DJ Campbell come from mid-major programs coming off heavily improved seasons with heavily improved playing time. With both projected to start at the moment, they could continue to improve on their stats.

Tucker averaged 5.2 assists per game last season, and his playmaking will be integral for this team, especially considering they didn’t have any other players average more than 3.7 last year for their respective teams.

They’ll have to do it in a new conference as well, joining the ACC this season. This might not be a tournament year for Cal basketball, but they will be far from a pushover.

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Head coach: Mark Madsen (2nd season at California, 6th season overall)

2023-24 record: 13-19 (9-11)

2024 postseason finish: No postseason

Notable departures: 

• Jaylon Tyson (19.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.5 APG)
• Fardaws Aimaq (14.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 2.1 APG)
• Jalen Cone (13.4 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.3 APG)
• Jalen Celestine (8.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 0.9 APG)
• Keonte Kennedy (9.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.8 APG)
• Grant Newell (5.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0.4 APG)

Notable non-conference games: 

• at Missouri (Dec. 3)

Projected Rotation

PG: Christian Tucker (6-3, 178, Sr.)

2023-24 stats: 11.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 87.5 FT (UTSA)

SG: DJ Campbell (6-5, 205, Jr.)

2023-24 stats: 11.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 52.9 FG% (Western Carolina)

SF: Andrej Stojakovic (6-7, 205, So.)

2023-24 stats: 7.8 PPG, 3,4 RPG, 0.9 APG, 40.9 FG% (Stanford)

PF: Josh Ola-Joseph (6-7, 215, Jr.)

2023-24 stats: 7.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 0.5 APG, 60.9 FG% (Minnesota)

C: Mady Sissoko (6-9, 250, Gr.-Sr.)

2023-24 stats: 3.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.3 APG 56.8 FG% (Michigan State)

6: Rytis Petraitis (6-7, 210, Jr.)

2023-24 stats: 15.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 48.5 FG% (Air Force)

7: B.J Omot (6-8, 185, Jr.)

2023-24 stats: 16.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.4 APG (North Dakota)

8: Jovan Blacksher Jr. (5-11, 165, Gr.-Sr.)

2023-24 stats: 4.8 PPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 RPG (Grand Canyon)

9: Lee Dort (6-10, 245, Jr.)

2023-24 stats: 1.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.0 APG, 1 GP (Vanderbilt)

10: Vladimir Pavlovic (6-3, 190, So.)

2023-24 stats: 0.9 PPG, 0.3 APG, 0.3 RPG

Cal Basketball team MVP: Rytis Petraitis

Last year, California basketball had a clear MVP in Jalon Tyson. In fact, Cal’s situation last year was that they were very top-heavy, and lacked any sort of depth. This year, it’s the opposite. They don’t have a clear #1 guy, but they have tons of depth. Petraitis might not start, especially on opening night, but he certainly has the potential to earn his spot.

In his last two games with Air Force, he averaged 26.5 PPG and 9 RPG. He had four other 20-point performances and shot nearly 50% from the field. He is an on-court leader, and with better pieces around him, he can definitely be even better. The biggest concern is he’s surrounded by players with a similar style of play as him, so that could make his playmaking difficult. However, if he can show the same flashes he did last year, this Cal team can sneak below the radar and win some games.

Cal Basketball make-or-break player: Andrej Stojakovic

Coming out of high school, Stojakovic was ranked as the 19th-best prospect in his class. He wasn’t a five-star, but as close as you can get, being ranked the second-best 4-star in his class. There was a lot of hype surrounding him at Stanford, but he didn’t show much, averaging just 7.8 PPG. Now, people don’t realize how difficult the transition from high school to college is, and the lack of experience makes it very challenging for someone like Stojakovic.

There were flashes last year. In an upset win over Arizona, he scored 16 points on 6-10 shooting. He scored 20 points on 8-12 shooting against USC. He scored 18 points in back-to-back games against Santa Clara and Eastern Washington. With a year under his belt, we can start seeing that more frequently from Stojakovic. If he can become a 13-point-per-game scorer, Cal’s ceiling will rise significantly. However, if we see more of the same, it will be hard for Cal to make any improvement from last season.

Key analytic: Opponent Turnovers per game

Winning the turnover battle is extremely important for success, and one of Cal basketball’s biggest weaknesses last year was that. They were 266th in the country in opponent turnovers per game. Obviously, that’s not going to get the job done. They didn’t bring in any defensive specialist, but lots of guys with length that with the right coaching, can become one.

The ACC is full of teams with different styles, and teams like Virginia and UNC won’t make it easy to force turnovers, but as long as they’re not turning it over themselves, all should be good.