Despite a small first-round upset, two favorites in (3) Illinois and (2) Iowa State advance to the second weekend in the East Region of March Madness.
Omaha featured some of the more intriguing first-round March Madness matchups. In a pair of games that went down to the wire, Washington State survived Drake, 66-61, and Duquesne took down BYU, 71-66, in an 11-6 upset. Ultimately, Iowa State and Illinois could not be slowed down, and each will head into the Sweet Sixteen coming off of a pair of double-digit victories.
Omaha Region Most Outstanding Player
Terrence Shannon Jr, Illinois
In 27 games played this season, defenses have rarely had an answer for Shannon. He continued his momentum into the NCAA Tournament with 26 points against Morehead State, followed by a 30-piece against Duquesne. Shannon shot 19-for-30 (63.3%) overall, including five triples. To put this high volume into greater context, 28 of his field goal attempts were either around the rim or beyond the arc, the two most efficient shot types, indicating that he is creating favorable outcomes for himself.
Omaha Region First Team
- G: Terrence Shannon Jr, Illinois – 2 GP (28.0 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.0 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 63.3 FG%)
- G: Marcus Domask, Illinois – 2 GP (17.0 PPG, 8.5 APG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 50.0 3P%)
- G: Riley Minix, Morehead State – 1 GP (27.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 0.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 50.0 3P%)
- F: Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State – 2 GP (14.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 50.0 FG%, 38.5 3P%)
- F: Jaylen Wells, Washington State – 2 GP (18.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 50.0 FG%)
3 Takeaways
#1: Illinois and Iowa State take care of business
The Fighting Illini and Cyclones handled their lower-seeded opponents with as much ease as you will see at this time of year. This is not terribly shocking either.
Illinois came into March Madness playing their best basketball, winners of seven of their previous eight, and taking home the Big Ten Championship in the process. Between their backcourt of Shannon and Domask, and an emerging frontcourt presence in Dain Dainja to complement Coleman Hawkins, slowing down the offense is a difficult task. In their first two NCAA Tournament games, the Fighting Illini are averaging 87 points, while giving up just 66.
Iowa State has avoided a head-scratching loss all season, falling just one time in a non-Quad 1 game, a November neutral site contest against Virginia Tech. This is why 62% of the population picked the Cyclones to advance to the second weekend in the ESPN people’s bracket. Even when the shots were not falling in the second round early against Washington State, Iowa State ended up falling back on their elite defense and eventually pulled away with 40 second-half points.
#2: Keith Dambrot ends his career with a milestone
Duquesne did not even obtain a double bye in the Atlantic 10 tournament, yet won four straight games and earned the conference’s automatic bid in March Madness. Head coach Keith Dambrot, then, announced that he would retire at the conclusion of the season.
Just days later, Dambrot not only earned his first and only career NCAA Tournament win but did so via a coaching masterclass. If I were to say that Dukes were to take down BYU, many would have expected it to be because of a huge Dae Dae Grant offensive performance, and role players to step up in that same sense. Grant did have his 19 but he was not terribly efficient in the process. The story of the game was the Duquesne defense successfully running the Cougars off the three-point line, which is where they have made their living all season. The Dukes held BYU to just 8-of-24 (33.3%) from beyond the arc, compared to their season average of 32 attempts.
#3: Washington State accomplishes its best season in well over a decade
Washington State has not accomplished much in recent history. Before this year, their most recent tournament appearance was in 2008. In fact, the two most recent coaches to have made the dance were Tony Bennett (’07 and ’08) and Kelvin Sampson (1994). In other words, it took Hall of Fame caliber leadership to bring any amount of success to the Cougars program. For that reason, it made sense to see head coach Kyle Smith quickly leave for a better job at Stanford.
However, this also goes to emphasize how big of a deal the 2023-24 season was in Pullman. History says that Washington State may not be back in this position for a while, and they responded by going out and winning a game against a 28-win Drake team. Of course, they were stifled by Iowa State’s defense in the round of 32 but the bottom line is that Cougars finally spent some time on the national radar.
Lookahead for Illinois
We entered March Madness concerned if Illinois was trustworthy, but stage one has been passed. The next question: what happens if the Cyclones slow down the Fighting Illini and do not allow their guards to get dribble penetration? Illinois does not have much experience winning games in the 60’s or low 70’s.
Of course, there’s a legitimate possibility that variance falls in favor of the Fighting Illini and they go out and light it up from the perimeter. From a pure shotmaking perspective, they are the superior team, not only compared to the Cyclones but arguably in the entire East region. The problem is Iowa State, UConn, and San Diego State all have their defense to fall back on whereas Illinois ranks the lowest in that category among all remaining teams, per Torvik.
Lookahead for Iowa State
Iowa State is favored in their upcoming Sweet Sixteen matchup against Illinois and for good reason. They are lockdown on defense and in most cases, it has sparked production on the other end, even when it was otherwise to come by.
With the Cyclones, it is about whether they have the offensive firepower to win in shootouts against the best of the best. Don’t get me wrong; their track record is impressive. Going 2-1 against Houston says a lot. That said, they did not reach 70 in any of those games.
Iowa State is one of the most reliable teams in the nation in the sense that they will not take a night off. The main thing in their way right now is the elite scoring teams, particularly Illinois and UConn in the East region.