The stage is finally set for March Madness in 2024.
The 2024 March Madness bracket has been released. UConn earned the #1 overall seed, joining Purdue, Houston, and North Carolina as the 1-seeds.
The Big 12 and the SEC tied for the most bids with eight teams apiece. The Big Ten and Mountain West are represented by six teams each, the ACC has five, and the PAC-12 sends four teams to the dance in its final season.
UConn will play out of the East Region, which is set to finish up at the TD Garden in Boston on March 30 in the Elite Eight. The East is stacked, including three of the teams featured in last year’s Final Four (UConn, San Diego State, and FAU).
Stetson and Grambling State are making their first NCAA Tournament appearances in program history. The Dukes of Duquesne are making their first appearance in 47 years. Long Beach State fired head coach Dan Monson prior to the conference tournament, only for he and the Beach to run the table and punch their ticket.
There’s plenty to be excited about. So I assembled a team.
Seven CBB Review writers, myself included, are featured on this panel to give you in-depth analysis of the upcoming NCAA Tournament. One of those writers, and CBB Review’s founder, Mat Mlodzinski is an experienced bracketologist who is recognized by The Bracket Matrix. The Bracket Matrix is a website designed to rank the sport’s most reliable bracketologists.
For the purpose of this panel, we have included another of those recognized number-crunchers.
JBR Bracketology makes up the 7th member of our panel, providing his expertise to break down this bracket.
With the first set of First Four games happening last night (Wagner and Colorado State reigning victorious) and the First Round officially set to begin at 12:15 p.m. on Thursday for Mississippi State–Michigan State, CBB Review presents its 2024 March Madness Edition of the Roundtable Series.
The Panel:
- TJ O’Sullivan, CBB Review
- Mat Mlodzinski, CBB Review
- Kyle Nachtsheim, CBB Review
- George Bagwell, CBB Review
- Dan Siegel, CBB Review
- Ariel Puterman, CBB Review
- Sam Bass, CBB Review
- JBR Bracketology
Question #1: Let’s start at the top; Did the committee correctly select the 1-Seeds?
TJ: Much like the College Football Playoff, I believe there were five deserving teams for four spots. Six if you count Tennessee. But I believe Iowa State and North Carolina were both deserving of that spot. You can consider NC State a bad loss in the ACC Tournament, but just remember that it was in the championship game. Iowa State is the Big 12 champion, defeating a Houston team that sits atop nearly all metrics. It is a tough call, but I was okay with it being either the Tar Heels or the Cyclones… The bigger question is how in the heck is Iowa State not the top 2-seed?
Mat: Iowa State certainly had a case, but taking the full body of work into account, I think UConn, Houston, Purdue, and UNC deserved the 1-seeds.
Kyle: Yes. In a conversation I had on Sunday morning, I felt that Purdue would be ahead over Houston because their loss in their conference tournament was so one-sided.
George: I’m a firm believer in the fact that the trio of Tennessee, Arizona, and Iowa State all have a good argument for being the fourth 1-seed after Houston, UConn, and Purdue. For most of the year, North Carolina has played like a typical 2-seed, 3-seed, and there’s nothing wrong with that. But they don’t give off 1-seed vibes. I know that the season is 30-plus games, but it seems like the selection committee made up their mind on the top seeds before the Tar Heels lost to NC State and the Cyclones blew Houston out of the water.
Dan: I think it’s safe to say that they did. UConn, Purdue, and Houston were locks. Nobody’s arguing that. UNC had enough early wins and dominated their conference enough to get the fourth nod. If Marquette won the Big East Tournament, it’s a different story.
Ariel: I believe they did. The top three were obvious. You can maybe make an argument that Purdue is #2 overall instead of Houston, but at the end of the day they both got the locations they wanted. The fourth seed was up for grabs until the end, but UNC making the final while Tennessee and Arizona got bounced in the semifinal was enough for me. Iowa State made it interesting, but their NCSOS wasn’t strong enough.
Sam: Yes, I believe the four 1-seeds were fairly selected. I think that a case for Iowa State could have been made over North Carolina, but with UNC making the ACC Championship Game and beating Duke twice, they did about as much as they could have done. With so much disruption during champ week, it makes sense that only one of the four 1-seeds won their conference.
JBR: Yes they did. UConn earned #1 overall seed by being the only one of Houston, Purdue or UNC to win both their regular season and conference tournament titles. There was some chatter about Iowa State leapfrogging UNC after beating Houston Saturday night, but I never believed there was a legitimate chance of that happening. Committee has shown repeatedly through the years they value regular season conference championships. I figured at minimum each of UNC and Tennessee would remain ahead of Iowa State, which they did.
Question #2: Were there any surprises with seeding that you found to be significant?
TJ: I have a feeling a lot of the guys are going to bring up the Mountain West. But as my Twitter/X critics will tell you, I’m not high on the MWC. Talk about San Diego State’s NET all you want, their biggest wins are against conference opponents, a Saint Mary’s team that got out of the gate cold, and an inconsistent Gonzaga (ironically, two powers from a historically two-team-dominated mid-major conference). Same sentiment for the rest of the conference. What has the conference actually done other than beat up on each other? Nevada over TCU and Colorado State over Creighton are the conference’s best wins. A couple of one-off games isn’t proof that the MWC deserves six bids. If anything, I’m surprised the committee agreed with me and ranked the conference so low.
Mat: The Mountain West should file a grievance. Did they get six bids? Yes, but Boise State, Colorado State, and Utah State all seemed to be a seed line or two too low. Of course, they can back it up once the NCAA Tournament starts, but this didn’t make it any easier.
Kyle: Duquesne at the 11-seed, just based on the eye test, showed me that whoever won the Atlantic 10 was going to be in that spot. The Dukes lost three Quad 3 games, including two games in-conference against Davidson and Fordham. Sporting a strength of record ranking of 72, despite victories against Dayton and VCU, should have put them in at least the 13-seed line.
George: I’m not quite sure what Duquesne and New Mexico are doing as 11-seeds, for different reasons. New Mexico is much better than the typical 11-seed, and I almost feel bad for Clemson for having to play them. Duquesne, on the other hand, has nowhere near a proper 11-seed resume. Every other 11-seed is rated in the top 60 in KenPom. Duquesne is 86th, behind three of the 12-seeds and two of the 13-seeds. It’s like the committee decided to put VCU there and just replaced them with the Dukes when Duquesne pulled off the upset in the A-10 championship.
Dan: Yes, I thought the actual field of 68 was reasonable but the seeding left a few question marks. The Mountain West got the short end of the stick. Colorado State should not have even had to play last night, for example. Also, what are we doing with Duquesne on the 11-line? That was clearly supposed to be VCU’s spot.
Ariel: I was surprised by several. First, Auburn as a 4-seed. Auburn finished fourth in KenPom, top five in every analytical site, and won the SEC Tournament with ease. They should have been a 3-seed. Gonzaga was a bubble team until they beat Kentucky, then seemed like, at best, a 7-seed when they lost in the WCC Tournament Final. However, they ended as a 5-seed.
Then, there are just the decisions as a whole about which teams got 9-and-10-seeds from the bubble, and which teams were forced to be in the play-in. Michigan State didn’t have the resume to make the tournament, but somehow got out of playing in the First Four and a 9-seed. FAU has a similar story after struggling in conference play. Meanwhile, Boise State and Colorado State, who many saw as comfortably in the tournament, now have to play an extra game to earn a spot.
Sam: It shocked me that Auburn was the 4-seed. I think the SEC was very strong this year and Auburn was consistently a top-15 team in the country. Paired with winning the SEC, the Tigers have some real high expectations and should have made at least the 3-line.
JBR: I think the most surprising seeding decision has to be the Mountain West. Every single Mountain West team, outside of San Diego State, was seeded two full seed lines below where the Bracket Matrix had them. There was no rhyme or reason for it. Mountain West was graded out very highly, one of the best mid-major leagues we’ve seen in a long time. And while they did receive six bids, the committee was not kind on seed lines.
Question #3: With the bubble being as good as it was this year, what team do you feel was the biggest snub?
TJ: I won’t go as far as to say they were snubbed, but Oklahoma and Seton Hall got a tough break. Oklahoma has ZERO non-Quad 1 losses, and wins over Iowa State and BYU. Seton Hall beat UConn, a ranked Providence, and Marquette over the course of a four-game stretch. These teams’ records are what hurt them. But if you’re telling me that Virginia and Michigan State have better bodies of work, I would vehemently disagree.
Mat: Call it bias but I’m going with a combination of Seton Hall and Providence. Five Quad 1 wins for the Pirates, including a win over UConn and a 13-7 Big East record. SIX Quad 1 wins for the Friars, who, by the way, had the Big East Player of the Year. Obviously, the conference was pretty weak at the top, with the Huskies only getting the number one overall seed, Marquette barely getting in the field as a 2 seed, and Creighton squeaking in as a 3 seed. Perhaps if the top of the conference played better, wins over them would have meant more.
Kyle: Despite having a Quad 4 loss to Illinois State, Indiana State had the overall resume to be included in the tournament. They had a better strength of record than two of the four teams currently heading to Dayton. They also did something that seemed to be rare this conference tournament season: Make it to the title game. Besides, the Missouri Valley has been one of the strongest mid-major conferences, gaining multiple bids in 22 of the last 40 tournaments.
George: In my opinion, the committee did get a lot right. But leaving out Indiana State is criminal. I could go off on a spiel about how there is bias against mid-majors baked into every predictive metric, but instead I’ll settle for a simple head shake and elongated sigh. The Sycamores are more deserving of a tournament bid than Virginia (sorry Dan), and that’s a hill I will die on.
Dan: Oklahoma is my answer, although I’m okay with a below .500 in-conference record not cutting it. But you can argue that the Sooners had zero losses outside of Q1 so they proved on the court they would stack up. A lot of people will say Indiana State and there’s a reasonable argument to be made. The watchability aspect when compared to Virginia shouldn’t be in the selection criteria, though.
Ariel: Oklahoma didn’t have a single non-Q1 loss. They also got extremely unlucky with non-conference play. They beat USC, Iowa, Providence, and Arkansas. These all seemed like they would be great resume wins, and in any other year they would. Instead, all four underperformed and missed the tournament. Seton Hall also should have received a bid. Their metrics weren’t great but you can’t argue the resume, which included a win against UConn.
Sam: I would have loved to see St. John’s in. Rick Pitino has done a tremendous job in Queens, and the Johnnies have every right to be upset. Pitino has proven success in March and was a fan-favorite heading into the tourney. I think the committee missed out on a good team with a lot of viewership as well.
JBR: I think the biggest snub was Indiana State. Perhaps controversial, but their metric profile being left out was unprecedented. Sycamores were top 45 in all five metrics, top 30 in NET and top 40 in both resume metrics. And that’s with a Quad 4 loss coming when one of their best players was out due to injury.
Question #4: What seed (5-16) is the strongest group of teams?
TJ: Call me cliche, but I LOVE the 12-seeds. UAB’s Alejandro Vasquez had a monster outing in the AAC Championship game, and the team finished the season 7-3 in their last 10 games. James Madison started the season hot, and finished the season hot. McNeese State is going to be a serious problem for Gonzaga in the first round. Grand Canyon, I believe, has the most to prove, but you can’t scoff at four losses. 12-over-5, where have I heard that before?
Mat: I think the 8 seeds all have super high ceilings. FAU has last year’s Final Four squad back and has a 7-footer who could give UConn some trouble. I don’t believe Mississippi State had the resume to get into the field. But when they’re on their game, Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith are an elite 1-2 punch. As I mentioned before, Utah State could have been a 6-seed. 8-seed seems unimaginable to me. Finally, Nebraska and the Keisei Tominaga Show have what it takes for a Sweet Sixteen run (Texas A&M does too for that matter).
Kyle: I want to make a strong case for the 12-seed line, since historically they cause the most chaos in the tournament. Looking at my bracket, however, I am going to go with the 6-seed line. Clemson got a good draw with New Mexico and potentially Baylor, as I have them in the Sweet Sixteen. South Carolina and BYU also got favorable draws. The weak link of this quartet is Texas Tech, who drew ACC-Champion NC State in the first round. I’ll get to the Wolfpack in a minute.
George: It’s a tossup between the 5’s (the best mid-majors plus Wisconsin) and the 10-seeds, namely Drake, Colorado State, Nevada, and Boise State. (So basically the MW plus Drake.) The two seeds are particularly vulnerable this year (I say that every year), and I could see multiple 10-seeds make the Sweet Sixteen. Don’t sleep on the teams west of the Mississippi; Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, or San Diego State.
Dan: Honestly, look no further than the 5 to 7 lines. CBB has your dominant one seeds but outside of that, there are a large group of squads that have had their ups and downs and beaten up on each other. The gap isn’t that huge between the 3-line and the 7-line, per se.
Ariel: I love the 6-seeds this year. BYU is the leader, who can shoot the lights out and space the floor. They are tough to match up with if they’re hitting their shots, and if they weren’t in the region of death they could be a third-weekend team. Then, a fellow Big 12 team in Texas Tech. They have great guard play, and a coach who knows how to win. They’re a trendy upset pick against NC State, but they have the talent to win a game or two. South Carolina was the big surprise of the season, shooting up the SEC standings and nearly winning. They picked up big wins all season and led a balanced attack. The biggest question mark is Clemson. They’ve been up and down all season, but they do have wins over Alabama, UNC, and TCU. PJ Hall is one of the best big men in the tournament, and can dominate any team he faces.
Sam: I think the 7-lines have a great shot to make a lot of noise this March. Texas has been very streaky and can get hot at any point. Washington State has been quietly one of the PAC-12’s best teams. Dayton worries me a little but had an unbelievable season that would have resulted in probably a 4-or-5-line with a conference championship. Florida is playing some of its best ball. Watch out for the 11’s, too, especially Oregon and NC State; two teams that are red-hot coming off of conference crowns.
JBR: Probably the 10-seeds, ironically. You’ve got two under-seeded MWC teams plus a Colorado team that is top 26 in both NET and KenPom, and has proven to be a really strong team when healthy. Buffaloes are healthy now and could absolutely go on a run.
Question #5: Which first round matchup is the most intriguing to you?
TJ: I’ve already mentioned McNeese State-Gonzaga, so I’ll go down a different route. Clemson is a 6-seed that looked like they were playing themselves out of the tournament since mid-season. New Mexico, on the other hand, has a ton of talent in the backcourt. Freshman JT Toppin is impressive down low, he could give Clemson’s PJ Hall a run for his money if Hall’s not careful.
Mat: Give me FAU and Northwestern. Johnell Davis. Boo Buie. Last year’s Cinderella vs. a program finally basking in some success. Games like Wisconsin – James Madison and Auburn – Yale will be fun, but FAU – Northwestern has so many great players and storylines.
Kyle: Nebraska vs. Texas A&M, because of the drama surrounding both schools’ athletic departments. Trev Alberts, who was Nebraska’s athletic director, was just introduced Monday as the new AD of Texas A&M. While the teams will only focus on their opponents, the media has already dubbed this the “Trev Alberts Bowl.” Showing some love to the women’s tournament for a second, as these two schools also got drawn in the first round together in that tournament as well.
George: The most intriguing First Round matchup is Alabama vs. College of Charleston. This is going to be an offensive showcase, with both defenses (particularly Alabama’s) being significantly worse than their offensive counterparts. There will be shots at the rim, shots from behind the line, shots from midrange, shots from everywhere, really, and points all over. This game could end up being around the 98-97 range, or maybe a 102-99 finish with a buzzer-beating three.
Dan: The most intriguing to me is Gonzaga vs McNeese. Many fans love that trendy 12 over 5 upset because of McNeese’s impressive record and star point guard, Shahada Wells. Gonzaga is still a national brand and they have a big of their own that can dominate in Graham Ike. I have no doubts that this game will be close and hopefully, feature some late game drama.
Ariel: Alabama vs. Charleston. It feels like no one is talking about this game, but it could be the best of the weekend. Alabama has been struggling as of late, and that is due to their lack of defense. Meanwhile, Charleston can score the ball at a high rate and will run with the Crimson Tide all game. Will Mark Sears be enough to push the Crimson Tide to the next round? Or will Pat Kelsey and Charleston take advantage of that lack of defense and pull off the upset?
Sam: As an ACC guru, I’m excited to see Duke and Vermont. Duke has had storied struggles after losing in the Quarters of the ACC Tournament, and Vermont is always a trendy upset pick. I think that game will be very close, and I’m excited to see Duke’s pure athleticism and skill versus Vermont’s discipline and poise.
JBR: I’ll say Dayton vs. Nevada. Two really strong mid-major programs. Great players. Great coaches. I’m really excited to see who comes out of that one, with a likely matchup with Arizona for the Sweet Sixteen.
Question #6: Which first round matchup has “upset” written all over it?
TJ: Kevin McCullar Jr. will not play for Kansas due to a knee injury. Still no word on the condition of Hunter Dickinson. The Jayhawks have been searching for that fifth man all season, and now they are down two of their best players. I smell blood in the water, and Samford is looking more and more like a Great White.
Mat: Samford over Kansas. We’re talking about a Jayhawks team that could have Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar both not at 100% against a Samford team that ranks top 10 in the nation in PPG, SPG, and 3P%. They play both sides of the ball at an elite level. If Kansas can’t get enough bench production, watch out.
Kyle: Kansas vs. Samford, because of the uncertainty of several players’ availability. Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson missed Kansas’ cup of coffee at the Big 12 tournament. Bill Self is hopeful Dickinson will return for the NCAA Tournament. Having a relatively cold player coming off injury and your top scoring threat out is not ideal, especially with Samford having six players capable of shooting over 40% from beyond the arc.
George: The New Mexico Lobos have “6-over-11 upset” on lock. They’re playing near their best basketball of the season, have one of the most talented backcourts in the country, and (most importantly) have the vibes needed to pull off the upset. They might even be favored over Clemson.
Dan: Charleston over Alabama is one of my favorites. Alabama does not defend and the Cougars could have a field day with their offensive sets. Also this should just be a fun game with a lot of three point shots and a ton of points.
Ariel: The Charleston one I just mentioned does, but 10-seed Drake over 7-seed Washington State does as well. First of all, this game is in Omaha. The Drake fans will travel and give them the home-court advantage. I’m not sure if Washington State can stop Tucker DeVries. Plus, Washington State hasn’t looked great since beating Arizona on the road. It’s not much of an upset, but this feels like as much of a sure thing for a lower-seed upset as there can be.
Sam: I’m looking right at Clemson and New Mexico. As shown with Colorado State and Virginia, maybe the Mountain West deserves a little more credit than the ACC. Clemson is solid, but the 6-line is especially high for a team that finished fifth in the ACC and didn’t win their first matchup. New Mexico, on the other hand, is red-hot. Lobos have a real case of not only beating the Tigers, but dismantling them.
JBR: New Mexico over Clemson. Lobos are firing on all cylinders right now, and were a trendy preseason pick to make noise in March.
Question #7: Which team (seeds 5-16) is this year’s Cinderella?
TJ: There are a few that could make a run. But if there’s one team that has already proven they have the guts, it’s NC State. After the Boeheim comments, the Wolfpack ran the table. They beat Virginia in overtime, Duke in a stunner, and ran the table against North Carolina. Five wins in five days, and they will have four days of rest when they take on Texas Tech. Even if they go one-and-done, I doubt DJ Horne & Co. are going to go down without a fight. It’s hard to bet against them.
Mat: New Mexico was my Final Four sleeper team at the beginning of the season so I think I’m forced to go with the Lobos. They get a favorable First Round game against Clemson, followed by the winner of Baylor and Colgate. Richard Pitino’s squad can shoot themselves out of a game, or win against anyone when their shots are falling.
Kyle: I’m torn between NC State and McNeese. McNeese is one victory away from equalling their win total from the last three seasons combined. Let that sink in for a minute. The last time they even eclipsed 20 victories was in 2010-11, falling to Boston College in the NIT. NC State, on the other hand, did something that not even the Washington Wizards could do: Win five games at Capital One Arena. Defeating two in-state rivals in three days to steal the ACC auto-bid, becoming the first double-digit team to win the ACC tournament. I have both teams reaching the Sweet Sixteen.
George: This year’s Cinderella is McNeese State. The Cowboys have it all. An elite coach, a star guard, Power 6 talent, and the ability to hit a three. The 12-seed from Lake Charles, led of course by Will Wade, are playing the depth-challenged Gonzaga first, followed by either injury-challenged and depth-challenged Kansas or fellow mid-major Samford. Please, I implore readers to keep an eye on the Pokes.
Dan: I could see Florida going on a big run in the South region, which can be particularly chaotic. The Gators have a tremendous backcourt, and have underperformed for much of the season. Now they are pretty hot. My only hesitation is Micah Handlogten’s recent injury, which takes away a significant edge on the boards.
Ariel: 11-seed New Mexico is. They have a three-headed guard trio that can all play at the Power Conference level and drop 20 points each on any given night. They have a favorable first weekend, going up against Clemson and Baylor who they match up well with. Another is Florida. The Handlogten is terrible, and hoping he has a speedy recovery, but the 7-seed Gators have a tremendous starting four besides him that can carry the load. They’ll get a play-in team in the first round, then most likely a Marquette team with a banged-up Tyler Kolek. I think this team has deep tournament-run potential.
Sam: I am super high on Oregon. They have been quiet all year, managing to sneak in with a PAC-12 championship, but the Ducks are no fluke. The Midwest is the weakest region this year, and Oregon can absolutely contend and make it out of that region.
JBR: I’ll take Oregon. If there’s one coach, besides Izzo, that seems to do more with less in March it’s gotta be Altman. Easy team for East Coasters to forget about, but an 11-seed is the perfect spot for a Cinderella run.
Question #8: What is your Final Four?
TJ: Iowa State, North Carolina, Houston, Creighton
Mat: UConn, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Tennessee
Kyle: UConn, Arizona, Houston, Creighton
George: UConn, New Mexico, Nebraska, Tennessee
Dan: UConn, UNC, Florida, Tennessee
Ariel: Auburn, Arizona, Houston, Purdue
Sam: Auburn, UNC, Kentucky, Purdue
JBR: UConn, Houston, Creighton, Baylor (NOTE: As of Monday, 3/18)
Question #9: Who is your National Champion?
TJ: Iowa State is a scary team. Defensively, they are one of the best units in the nation. On offense, there are times that the Cyclones seem unable to miss. They finished 2nd in the Big 12 standings and have two wins over first-place Houston. Oh, and by the way, one of those wins was in the Big 12 Championship Game. They are a strong contender and have a relatively easy road, especially if UConn loses before the Elite Eight.
Mat: Tennessee. It’s the Dalton Knecht Show for me. The best player in college basketball alongside one of the best point guards in Zakai Zeigler. They were playing hot and now have a chip on their shoulder after an early exit in the SEC Tournament. Plus, I’m in a bracket group with mostly UConn fans, so I have to find a way to be different, right?
Kyle: I have Houston defeating UConn to win the national title. No team since Florida in 2006-07 has won back-to-back titles, with only two teams achieving that feat since UCLA’s last title in 1975. Is UConn coming into the tournament in better condition than Houston? Absolutely. The Cougars, however, have been proving to the pundits all season they belong in the Big 12. This game will come down to the last few possessions. Houston will mark the 40th anniversary of the end of their famous “Phi Slama Jama” era by cutting down the nets in Phoenix.
George: The defending-champion UConn Huskies are the best team in the country, again. I was on the Houston train, and maybe I still am. But season-ending injuries to JoJo Tugler, Terrance Arceneaux, and Ramon Walker Jr. make me slide over to the Husky-Repeat train. They’re simply the best.
Dan: Tennessee is a great value pick to me. They can stack up against the popular picks with a superstar in Dalton Knecht, secondary scoring options, and an elite defense. Remember that you’re only a bad March Madness coach until you’re not.
Ariel: I like Houston. The Big 12 produces champions, as we saw with Baylor and Kansas, and that defense is so dominant that any team will struggle with them. Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer will give teams nightmares. Kelvin Sampson is a winner and will have Houston cutting down the nets this year.
Sam: Purdue wins it all this year. After two years of brutality, it is time for the Boilermakers’ redemption. The offense is more complete. Edey is playing at his highest level, and as long as their shooting doesn’t get ice cold, Purdue follows Virginia as the second team to win a championship the year after losing to a 16-seed.
JBR: I gotta go with UConn to repeat. They’re the best team in the country at full-strength and get pseudo-home games in each Brooklyn and Boston en route to the Final Four.