We moved on to the Big 12 Tournament Second Round, where we saw eight teams fight for an opportunity to advance to the Big 12 Quarterfinals.
BYU, TCU, Kansas State, and Cincinnati came out on top, but not without loads of drama and excitement. Read below from one takeaway from each of the Big 12 Tournament Second Round games.
BYU 87 UCF 73
Takeaway #1: Basketball is a game of runs
There’s a famous saying that goes “it’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish”. BYU said, why not both? BYU started this game on 14-0 run and jumped out to a 21-3 lead at the 14:12 mark of the first half. UCF would chip away the rest of the half and reduce that lead to just nine. UCF continued to chip away and even got it down to 3. For most teams, when they lose that kind of momentum, they fold. Instead, BYU would go on a 15-0 run and not look back.
EvanMiya has a metric called the kill shot. This stat tracks scoring runs, specifically 10-0 runs or more. According to his data, a team that goes on a 10-0 run wins 71% of the time. BYU went on two, which gave them an 88% chance to win. When this team gets hot, it is so difficult to stop them with their variety of knockdown shooters. If they can play like this every game, don’t be surprised if they are hoisting the Big 12 trophy in a few days.
UCF has a chance to play in the NIT with some help from the bubble. It appears that Johnny Dawkins is on the way out, but for a team that was projected to finish last in the conference in the preseason, this was definitely a step in the right direction.
TCU 77 Oklahoma 70
Takeaway #2: TCU control throughout
In the previous three Big 12 tournament games, we haven’t seen a team start in control and hold it. OK State and UCF went back and forth in the first half before UCF pulled away. Cincinnati had to come back from down double digits to beat West Virginia. BYU looked like they might, but UCF came back and lowered the lead to three before BYU pulled away again.
Today, TCU only trailed for 19 seconds, and that was in the first minute of the game. They quickly built a double-digit lead and didn’t allow Oklahoma to pull within single digits until garbage time. For a team on the bubble heading into this one, this is a huge confidence boost and most likely locks them in.
Meanwhile, for Oklahoma, this is not a good look. They’ve dropped a ton of games down the stretch. Since starting the season 13-2, they’re now 7-10. Did they do enough in non-conference and conference to justify them making the tournament?
Is the end for Porter Moser? Many rumors circulated that he would be taking the Depaul job, and while he denied it on Twitter, we’ve seen 180s pulled way too many times in this sport. The SEC is one game closer, Sooner fans.
Kansas State 78 Texas 74
Takeaway #3: Texas throws away its shot (literally)
This game was a true tale of two halves, and after the first, Texas looked in charge. They shot 57.1% from the field in the first half, including 70% from two. As a result, they led by 10 at the half. The second half was completely different. Texas shot just 29% from the field, and 31% from two. Kansas State took advantage and was able to come back and eventually win. Those numbers were even worse for most of the half too, but Max Abmas hit several big shots late to raise that and give them an opportunity to win.
Tyrese Hunter went 0-7 from the field, and Dylan Disu dealt with foul trouble for most of the game, limiting his impact. Still, when the shots are falling, it is the job of the coach to make adjustments to set their team up for success. Rodney Terry didn’t do that, and Jerome Tang did, and as a result, Kansas State will play at least one more game in Kansas City.
Kansas State also gets a much-needed boost to their resume. Are they in the field right now? Depends on which bracketologist you ask, but a win against Iowa State all but guarantees the Wildcats will go dancing.
Cincinnati 72 Kansas 52
Takeaway #4: In 2024, you can’t win without making your threes
Blame Steph Curry all you want, but in order to be successful, you need to make your threes. You don’t need to shoot it like BYU, but having a three-point threat is important. Kansas shot 3-20 today from three. That’s 15%. One of those was a garbage time three by a walkon, so realistically they shot 2-19, which is 9.5%!
Yes, Kansas was playing without their two best players, but neither of them is necessarily a three-point shooter either. Nick Timberlake, who was supposed to be their specialist, was terrible once again, going 1-5 from deep, and Johnny Furphy, their other three-point shooter, shot 0-3. Kansas can do whatever they want in the post with Dickinson and Adams, but without a perimeter presence, defenses can collapse inside and make it very difficult on Kansas.
For Cincinnati, they keep their season alive, winning their second game in two days and putting themselves in position to be a serious bubble contender. They’ve now had three different players go for 20+ in the three games, showing the depth and versatility of their offense. They get Baylor tomorrow night, which will be infinitely tougher than West Virginia and this shorthanded Kansas team. However, if they keep this momentum, they can play themselves into the March Madness Tournament.