It’s never too early to look into the crystal ball and try and figure out where each college basketball coach will be employed next season.
I wrote the first version of this piece in October. Since publication, it seems like two to three of those five names on the hot seat entering the year are actually doing quite well, and will keep their jobs, more than likely. So we’ll strike that up as a swing and a miss.
But keep one important piece of information in the front of the mind while reading: I am not reporting any of this as truth. This article is pure conjecture. Guesses. Shots in the dark, really. If the time comes that one of these actually happens, it will be reported. But this isn’t a report, just a list of possibilities given the directions of certain programs and the history/trajectory of certain coaches.
A few destinations on this list have not departed with their head coach, and might not do so at all this offseason. In this exercise, it’s nothing personal. It’s just that in some situations, given that team (w) has (x) wins in (y) seasons, then there’s a high possibility that (z) could be relieved of his duties as head coach. That’s the formula, and none of the following guesses are at any point a shot at any coach. I wish every team could go 40-0. It’s just not possible.
This is, at its core, a fun article to try and make sense of some vibes being tossed around the college basketball world, and nothing more. Don’t read this and tweet out “Scott Drew is leaving Baylor for Louisville, confirmed,” (not that I’m even writing about Drew in this article) or pretend I’m a college basketball insider. I’m not, and if you’re reading this, chances are that you’re not either. I’m not chastising my reader base, but rather insisting that they take my words with quite a few grains of Morton salt. Or a whole box.
Arizona State Head Coach Bobby Hurley to DePaul
Chicago’s top job opened up following the firing of Tony Stubblefield in February. Despite being one of the least successful Power 6 programs in recent memory, it’s still a Power 6 job. (Although to be fair, the Power 6 is back to the Power 5 once next season rolls around.) The Blue Demons could look to a proven mid-major coach who’s a wizard tactician, (see Schertz, Josh) but it’s highly possible they go the “safe” route and hire a former/current Power 6 coach. Guess which Power 6 coach has Midwest ties, a brother in the conference, and some heat under his seat? Bobby Hurley.
For what it’s worth, (I hate that phrase but it feels necessary in context) I believe the best hire to be Josh Schertz for this position. Just three hours due south from Chicago, he’s working wonders in Terre Haute and has proven himself to be able to team-build and produce a consistently high-ceiling half-court offense for the Sycamores. If this was a “make the call” article, I’d tell DePaul to make the call to Schertz. But since it’s a “what might happen” article rather than a “what should happen”, Hurley is the man. It makes sense for him to want to be in Chicago. It makes sense for DePaul’s athletic department to show interest. Stubblefield is gone, we’ve known that already. The question isn’t if there’s a new guy coming in, it’s who the new guy coming in will be, and that guy very well could be Bobby Hurley.
Arkansas Head Coach Eric Musselman to Arizona State
This is only if the previous coach listed above moves on from Tempe. This could come as a shock to SEC fanbases, especially fans of the Razorbacks. But there are three things to note here. The first being that since 1995, Eric Musselman has never been a coach at a team for longer than five years at a time, and he’s had 13 different roles and stints of four different national teams in that time. Next year, if he is the head coach of Arkansas when the season tips off, would mark his 6th year in Fayetteville. The second is that Musselman has significant ties out west, not just to the region in general, but to Arizona State specifically. Since 2006, he’s coached the Sacramento Kings, Reno Bighorns (G-League), Los Angeles D-Factors (G-League), Arizona State (assistant coach and associate head coach), LSU (assistant coach), Nevada, and Arkansas. Five of those seven stops were out west, and it’s not inconceivable that he would want to return to familiar territory in Tempe, which brings us to the third fact of note.
Solely looking at this year, disregarding the three straight Sweet Sixteen appearances, Arkansas is not currently fielding a quality basketball team. The Hogs started the year No. 14 in the nation, but they’re currently 15-15 (6-11), on pace for the team’s first .500 season since 2015-16. They have experienced losses to UNCG, Memphis, Vanderbilt, and Georgia. The Hogs lost to Auburn by 32, LSU by 21, Florida by 22, Ole Miss by 26, and Tennessee by 29. Is that bad? It isn’t good. Yes, Arkansas reached places other programs could only dream of between 2020-23. But they’re at a place currently that other programs may not be too envious of. That place, of course, is a team with a .500 record that is likely losing 8 of their 10 leading scorers from this season. It’s a maybe-not-so-likely but not entirely impossible three-step process here. Hurley leaves Arizona State. Tempe calls a familiar face. The Muss Bus travels cross-country to become the first coach of the Sun Devils in the Big 12 era.
Samford Head Coach Bucky McMillan to Marshall
McMillan has spent his entire career in one county. Born in Birmingham, he played at DIII Birmingham-Southern (which is soon to be shut down, but that’s another story) then stayed in Jefferson County to coach the Mountain Brook high school team for 14 years, before getting the call to lead Samford, in Homewood, still in Jefferson County.
In the midst of his fourth year, BuckyBall is 74-40 overall, with three straight 20-win seasons over the past three years. This year, they’re the top seed in the SoCon tournament and could make their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2000 and the Jimmy Tillette era. Of Samford’s top four leading scorers, three (Achor Achor, Jaden Campbell, and Jermaine Marshall) started their careers at various Florida JUCOs, (be on the lookout for an article about Florida JUCOs from the author soon) and he’s put together an offense that’s ranked ahead of South Carolina, San Diego State, Iowa State, and Mississippi State, per KenPom’s latest ratings.
Marshall, on the other hand, is finishing up the 10th year of the 76-year-old Dan D’Antoni’s tenure, and the Thundering Herd are 12-19 entering the Sun Belt tournament. It would not be shocking to see the former Marshall guard and West Virginia native retire following the year. If that move were to happen, McMillan could be a home run hire. Sure, BuckyBall has been linked to the presumptive (more on that later) Vanderbilt opening, and some would consider the Sun Belt and the SoCon almost equal in terms of recent basketball success. Would it make sense for McMillan to leave his home, Jefferson County, for a job that isn’t a clear major upgrade? It’s entirely possible that McMillan stays at Samford to run it back once more with the Bulldogs if he isn’t offered a Power 5 job, then capitalize on another solid season once the next cycle comes around. After all, Achor, Staton-McCray, and Campbell all have a COVID year to use if they would like to.
Wake Forest Assistant Coach B.J. McKie to Central Arkansas
McKie, a former Gamecock, was a finalist for the South Carolina job a couple offseasons ago, but South Carolina ended up going with Lamont Paris. While it’s safe to say that move certainly worked out for the Gamecocks, McKie deserves a shot of his own. With Central Arkansas officially moving on from Anthony Boone, Conway could come calling. Since McKie came out of Irmo in the Midlands and starred for the Gamecocks, he spent time on the court in France, the CBA in America, D-League for the North Charleston Lowgators, Keravnos in Cyprus, then to Germany for three years, Italy for another three, back to France, Haifa, Afula, and ending his career in Argentina.
The well-traveled McKie then started his coaching career under the recently-retired Barclay Radebaugh at Charleston Southern, then joined the staff of Steve Forbes at ETSU and followed him to Wake Forest when he got the job in Winston-Salem. In Forbes and McKie’s last year in Johnson City, the Bucs were arguably one of the best SoCon teams of all time, finishing the season at 30-4 before the COVID-19 pandemic ended the year prematurely, with Bo Hodges and Tray Boyd leading the way. Over the three seasons in which McKie was an assistant at ETSU, the team had a 79-23 record overall.
In the past three seasons at Wake, the Demon Deacons are 62-36, and though they haven’t made the NCAA tournament yet, Forbes was named the ACC Coach of the Year in 2021-22, and McKie has helped develop players such as Alondes Williams, Jake Laravia, Tyree Appleby, and most recently, Hunter Sallis and Kevin Miller. It’s time to see what the South Carolina native can do with his own program, and the opening in Conway could be that opportunity. The A-Sun conference clearly fits into the Southern footprint that McKie has established, and Central Arkansas, who has only had a single winning season (18-17 in 2017-18) in their 18-year existence as a D-1 program, is basically a blank slate waiting to be written. The A-Sun is wide open now that Liberty is finally gone, so why not give McKie a shot? He’s earned it.
Cal State San Bernardino Head Coach Gus Argenal to UTRGV
To preface, this is one of the hardest jobs in D-1 basketball. In the 56-year history of UTRGV basketball, they have never made the NCAA tournament. They have an all-time record of 671-910, and McAllen and Brownsville are the only American cities with a population over 100,000 within a two hour drive of Edinburg. (If we’re also counting cities in Mexico, Reynosa and Matamoros are relatively close, but that doesn’t help with UTRGV recruiting much.) It’s not an indictment on Matt Figger’s coaching prowess that he hasn’t been able to get the job done in three seasons in the WAC, posting a 29-63 overall record. With low expectations, it’s entirely possible Figger gets another year to turn it around, absolutely. My expectation, however, is that the athletic administration is going to look for a change in leadership of the basketball program this offseason.
Gus Argenal, however, has the coaching chops to succeed in the region. He’s spent years as an assistant coach with stops at Arkansas, Rice, Cal State Fullerton, Nevada, and others. The former UC Davis guard is only in his first season as head coach of CSU San Bernardino, but the Yotes are 22-6 and ranked 19th in the latest D-2 rankings. He’s got a bonafide D-1 talent in guard Chris Mitchell that could follow him to UTRGV if he got the job, and while yes, that’s true for a majority of top D-2 programs, it’s also undeniable that Argenal has been around the block and can be a very valuable piece to a program that needs an injection of energy.
McNeese State Head Coach Will Wade to Louisville
Not to get too far down the rabbit hole (I’ve always wondered if that figure of speech is from Alice in Wonderland, and that’s probably something I could just look up and get an answer in five seconds, but I digress), but the “Eric Musselman three-step equation” would turn into a “Will Wade four-step equation” if the former left Arkansas this offseason. But as I write, I’d consider the “Will Wade three-step equation” much more likely. That equation is as follows: Louisville relieves Kenny Payne of his duties. Louisville calls the Nashville native. Wade becomes the next coach of the Cardinals.
I’m going to discuss why Wade deserves another shot at the Power 6 (as well as comparing him to Napoleon and highlighting the hypocrisy of certain institutions) in an upcoming article, so be tune into that by following my Twitter (shameless plug) or just going to cbbreview.com’s website (yet another shameless plug). But the absence of that discussion means I’m just going to talk about two things in this section: why Louisville will be looking for a new coach this offseason and why they’d look at Wade.
Throughout his coaching career, with assistant roles at Harvard and VCU, then at jobs of his own at Chattanooga, VCU, and LSU, Wade has won, brought in talent, and brought out the best in his players. He’s never had a losing season, played in a postseason tournament in all but one of eight years, (excluding the COVID-19 cancellation in which his Tigers were 2nd in the SEC) and brought in 11 NBA players in just five seasons in Baton Rouge. I know the huge caveat is that a few of those players were paid. And I’ll discuss that in the long-form article about Wade, but he’s really the only high-major coach that actually got punished for under-the-table payments. Sean Miller, Bill Self, Bruce Pearl, and others, all high-profile coaches with programs that were accused of the very same allegations, got no punishment. Wade was exiled for a year and forced to make his way up the ladder again. Is that fair? I don’t think so. If violent offenders with charges of assault against their fianceé (Chris Beard) can be floated as a possibility for the presumptive Louisville opening (I love Kenny Payne as a person but I don’t see him getting a third year), then Wade absolutely deserves his shot. There’s one right call for the job, and it’s Will Wade. Imagine the Louisville vs. Kentucky battles with Wade going up against Cal. A thing of beauty.
UNCG Head Coach Mike Jones to Vanderbilt
Jones has succeeded all around the South. Radford and UNCG as the head man (7 20-win seasons in the past 11 seasons) but also in assistant roles, coaching under Shaka Smart and John Beilein at VCU, Richmond, and West Virginia. Sure, he’s not a flashy 30-something out-of-the-box hire. But he’s been around the block, worked his way up, and learned from some of the best. Jones is a two-time Big South Coach of the Year at Radford and a SoCon media pick for Coach of the Year at UNCG. He knows how to build a program and sustain success in the Southeast, and has an extended footprint all across Vanderbilt recruiting grounds.
Vanderbilt has gone 8-22 this season after what seemed to be a breakout 22-15 year last season in Jerry Stackhouse’s fourth year at the helm. Personally, I’m a big fan of Jerry, and I think it would be a mistake to get rid of him at the end of this season. But the Vanderbilt administration may disagree following what will likely be his fifth straight season without an NCAA tournament appearance. If the ‘Dores choose to move on, Jones would assuredly be one of the better men for the job.
Grambling Head Coach Donte Jackson to UTSA
The Bulldogs have yet to make the NCAA tournament. Ever. Donte Jackson, however, has done his best to change that, and Grambling has as good of a chance as any in the SWAC to collect the conference’s automatic bid, even though the SWAC tournament is always unpredictable. Some may best remember the Grambling program for the 0-28 record in the 2012-13 season, but after taking over the reins five years after that nadir, Donte Jackson had had just one losing season in seven years. Before his arrival, the Tigers had suffered through 11 losing seasons in a row. If that’s not proof of progress, I don’t know what is. This season, Grambling is the regular season SWAC champion after losing in the tournament final to Texas Southern the previous year. Per KenPom, the Tigers had a better defense last season than Miami FL, Pitt, Providence, Penn State, and Baylor, all tournament teams.
The Central State grad has coached at HBCUs since finishing his playing career in 2002, with stints as an assistant and head coach with the Marauders until 2014, when he earned the head job at D-2 (currently NAIA) Stillman in Tuscaloosa. From 2017 to the present, he’s been at Grambling. All in all as a head coach, he’s only had one losing season ever, the 2021-22 season with the Tigers, which he immediately followed with a 22-8 record the next season. Steven Henson is likely on the way out at UTSA, and though Jackson is a native of Milwaukee, he’s obviously had considerable success in the Deep South footprint over the past decade. Still only 45 years old, Jackson seems to be as solid of a pick as any to be the next leader of the newly-AAC Roadrunner basketball program, which is located in the heart of a fertile recruiting ground.
LSU Assistant Coach Casey Long to New Orleans
Why not keep it in the Pelican State when looking for the next head coach of New Orleans? The Privateers have been led by Mark Slessinger since they brought back their program in 2012, and while he got them to the tournament in 2016-17, they’ve had 13+ wins in just one of the past five seasons. Entering this year’s Southland tournament, they’re 9-22 after being projected 3rd in the conference in the preseason media poll. It’s, understandably, time to make a change in leadership.
Long, a Leesville native, has been on the staff of Matt McMahon since 2017, when McMahon was the head coach of Murray State. Prior to Murray State, Long spent 2013-2016 as an assistant coach under former LSU head coach Will Wade at Chattanooga and VCU. When McMahon made the jump to Baton Rouge, so did Long. The former UTC star on the court has helped develop Ja Morant, KJ Williams, Tevin Brown, and Justice Hill. He checks all the boxes. Recruiting. Development. Tutelage under high-quality coaches. Basketball background. Local product. Casey Long is the perfect match for the New Orleans basketball program.