We are less than a week from Selection Sunday. Here’s where the Power 6 and other notable teams stand with their NCAA Tournament resumes.
Final update of the season was Mar. 14.
ACC
Locks (3)
- North Carolina (25-6, 17-3)
- Duke (24-7, 15-5)
- Clemson (21-11, 11-9)
Should Be In (0)
Work To Do (3)
Virginia (22-9, 13-7)
Things just got real spicy for Virginia. Coming into the ACC Tournament, I figured a win over Clemson was all they would need. Now, the Cavaliers will play Boston College, and I’m not so sure a win helps them all that much. It also seems unfair to “punish” the Cavs for playing a worse team in a conference tournament but if it comes down to it, the bubble is a tricky place to be on. – Updated Mar. 14
Wake Forest (20-12, 11-9)
The Demon Deacons handled business by taking down Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament 2nd round, but now comes their real test. With a top 40 NET Ranking, a win over Pittsburgh would keep them in good standing there and give them a third Quad 1 win (possibly moving down to Q2). Either way, it’s a quality win to help that resume even more. – Updated Mar. 14
Pitt (21-10, 12-8)
It seems like a win-and-in or win-and-stay alive for Pitt and Wake Forest on Thursday. The Panthers are in a decent position but with a loss, would be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday. With a win, it’d be hard to ignore a 22-win Power 6 squad with a 12-8 conference record. – Updated Mar. 14
Big 12
Locks (7)
- Houston (28-3, 15-3)
- Iowa State (24-7, 13-5)
- Baylor (22-9, 11-7)
- Kansas (22-10, 10-8)
- BYU (23-9, 10-8)
- Texas Tech (22-9, 11-7)
- TCU (21-11, 9-9)
Should Be In (2)
Texas (20-12, 9-9)
It was a brutal loss for Texas, falling to Kansas State in the Big 12 Second Round. I don’t think the Longhorns have anything to fear, because they haven’t been particularly near the bubble and K-State isn’t a bad loss. If anything, it could drop them down a seed. – Updated Mar. 14
Oklahoma (20-12, 8-10)
I’m keeping Oklahoma in the “Should Be In” category based on the fact that they have no more games until their fate is decided. However, if a few more “bid stealers” close the gap, you can best believe the Sooners will drop back a spot. – Updated Mar. 14
Work To Do (2)
Kansas State (19-13, 8-10)
The Wildcats are still alive! After taking down Texas, K-State is in position to be in position. The NET Ranking still needs work, but the Wildcats now have 11 Q1/2 wins and ZERO Q1/2 losses. I’m leaning closer to them being IN than OUT at this point. – Updated Mar. 14
Cincinnati (20-13, 7-111)
How on earth do we grade the latest Cincinnati win? They pummeled Kansas, but the Jayhawks were without Kevin McCullar AND Hunter Dickinson. To me, it counts as a good win, but not a great one. Baylor would be a great one, and I believe the Bearcats need that to be taken seriously. – Updated Mar. 14
Big East
Locks (3)
- UConn (28-3, 18-2)
- Marquette (23-8, 14-6)
- Creighton (23-8, 14-6)
Should Be In (1)
Seton Hall (20-11, 13-7)
I don’t see how a 13-7 Big East team gets left out of the NCAA Tournament, but the committee is known for at least one head-scratching decision each season. Simply put, a win over St. John’s and the Pirates are a lock. Lose, and Selection Sunday could be a little nerve-wracking. – Updated Mar. 14
Work To Do (3)
St. John’s (19-12, 11-9)
I question how the metrics continue to keep St. John’s alive but whether you like it or not, taking down Seton Hall would raise their win total to 20 which is a pretty good benchmark. I still think they could use an additional win after to become a true lock, but I’m feeling good about their chances either way. – Updated Mar. 14
Villanova (18-14, 10-10)
I was one Justin Moore missed shot away from erasing Villanova from contention and erasing my bank account.
If DePaul beats Villanova I’ll Venmo everyone who likes this Tweet $3.28
— Mat Mlodzinski (@MatMlodzinski) March 14, 2024
All jokes aside, Villanova got the most important win, but now they need the resume win. Of course, no Tyler Kolek makes things interesting, but Marquette still looked pretty good without him against UConn, so I’m sure Nova would still get a lot of credit for a win there. – Updated Mar. 14
Providence (20-12, 10-10)
How insane would it be if the Big East Player of the Year (Devin Carter) didn’t even get to play in the Big Dance? To me, the Friars are in a better position on the bubble than given credit for, but I don’t think anyone’s denying a win over Creighton would help their case tremendously. – Updated Mar. 14
Big Ten
Locks (5)
- Purdue (28-3, 17-3)
- Illinois (23-8, 14-6)
- Wisconsin (19-12, 11-9)
- Nebraska (22-9, 12-8)
- Northwestern (21-10, 12-8)
Should Be In (1)
Michigan State (18-13, 10-10)
If the committee values the metrics how they say they do, Michigan State will be in. But if they lose to Minnesota, an 18-14 record may cause them to consider otherwise. Beating the Gophers could lock up the spot. – Updated Mar. 14
Work To Do (2)
Iowa (18-13, 10-10)
The winner of Iowa and Ohio State stays on the bubble and the loser gets X’d out. I don’t make the rules, I just abide by them. Of course, this isn’t an actual rule but it’s pretty much what’s at stake for this game. – Updated Mar. 14
Ohio State (19-12, 9-11)
See the above paragraph for more. – Updated Mar. 14
Mountain West
Locks (3)
- San Diego State (22-9, 11-7)
- Utah State (26-5, 14-4)
- Nevada (26-6, 13-5)
Should Be In (2)
Boise State (22-9, 13-5)
Boise State is probably the closest team to a lock as any other team in this article, but I’m playing it safe and saying the Broncos need either a close loss or a win over New Mexico to make it official. – Updated Mar. 14
Colorado State (23-9, 10-8)
Beating San Jose State was the first step, but beating Nevada would give Rams fans nothing to worry about. Similarly to Boise State, they are virtually a lock. I’m just covering all of my bases. – Updated Mar. 14
Work To Do (1)
New Mexico (23-9, 10-8)
New Mexico left no afterthought with a crushing win over Air Force. It sets up a game with Boise State. The Lobos could use this a lot more, but make no mistake – both teams want to solidify their tournament status and resume. It’ll be a true battle. – Updated Mar. 14
Pac-12
Locks (2)
- Arizona (24-7, 15-5)
- Washington State (23-8, 14-6)
Should Be In (0)
Work To Do (3)
Colorado (22-9, 13-7)
The Buffs have won six straight but with just two Quad 1 wins, still aren’t super safe. A win or two in the Pac-12 Tournament and I think it’d be hard to keep them out. – Updated Mar. 14
Utah (18-13, 9-11)
As I’m writing this, Utah is up about 20 points on Arizona State in the first half. They’re staying on the bubble and in “Work To Do” but that win total is about to move up one more digit. – Updated Mar. 14
Oregon (20-11, 12-8)
The Ducks just don’t have enough high-quality wins and in the Pac-12 Tournament, that’s hard to come by. I’m thinking a championship run is the only realistic way they get an at-large. – Updated Mar. 14
SEC
Locks (6)
- Tennessee (24-7, 14-4)
- Kentucky (23-8, 13-5)
- Auburn (24-7, 13-5)
- Alabama (21-10, 13-5)
- South Carolina (25-6, 13-5)
- Florida (21-10, 11-7)
Should Be In (0)
Work To Do (2)
Texas A&M (18-13, 9-9)
The Aggies have won three straight, ever since I brought on Texas A&M reporter Donna Conrad.
I refuse to believe that’s a coincidence. I’m also liking their chances day by day and a win over Ole Miss could really help those odds. – Updated Mar. 14
Mississippi State (19-12, 8-10)
Some bracketologists feel safe about Mississippi State and I am not one of them. To me, a 19-13 team with a 2-8 road record isn’t great. Wins over Washington State and Northwestern truly help their case, but I think they virtually need to beat LSU. – Updated Mar. 14
Others
Locks (3)
- FAU (24-7, 14-4)
- Dayton (24-6, 14-4)
- Gonzaga (25-7, 14-2)
Should Be In (1)
Indiana State (28-6, 17-3)
All they can do is wait – and hope the committee doesn’t forget too much in the span of a week. This is why I’m not a huge fan of conferences ending their tournament so much earlier than the rest, but if the committee does its job and only compares resumes, the Sycamores have as good of a chance as any bubble mid-major team. – Updated Mar. 14
Work To Do (7)
Grand Canyon (27-4, 17-3)
The metrics are great, the win-loss ratio is outstanding. But what does that mean for a WAC team? We’ll have to wait and see (unless they get the auto bid, of course). – Updated Mar. 14
Princeton (24-3, 12-2)
Not having a Quad 1 win is about the only thing in the way of Princeton being in the actual at-large conversation. I’m keeping them here because you never know, but it would be a slim chance if I’m being honest. – Updated Mar. 14
South Florida (23-6, 16-2)
As the 1-seed in a high-major conference, you would expect USF to be in a really good spot, but that just isn’t the case. The Bulls don’t have great metrics and that’s what the committee values. I don’t want to promise what will lock them in, but getting to the finals seems like a must. – Updated Mar. 14
Memphis (22-9, 11-7)
Like South Florida, a run to the AAC Championship Game seems like the only way to secure an at-large bid. Of course, that would likely mean beating 5-seed UAB and 4-seed USF which would add a bit to their resume. Still, just flat-out winning the AAC would be the best way for the Tigers to get in. – Updated Mar. 14
App State (27-6, 16-2)
Chances aren’t great, but at the moment, there’s a path. That path could be gone by Friday. – Updated Mar. 14
Richmond (23-8, 15-3)
Like the teams in the American Athletic Conference on the bubble, Richmond could still use a far run to the A-10 finals to feel good about an at-large bid. When it gets down to it, metrics mean a lot more than a 15-3 conference record. – Updated Mar. 14
Loyola Chicago (23-8, 15-3)
I’m not shrugging off Loyola Chicago just yet, considering they have the chance to beat Dayton in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Like most of these at-large mid-major teams, a run to the conference championship is needed, and that also might be enough, if it includes a win over the Flyers. – Updated Mar. 14