A few college basketball programs are in line to receive their first-ever bids to the NCAA Tournament.
The NCAA Tournament was first held in 1939 when eight teams participated. The tournament competed with the NIT for teams and the national spotlight. This changed in 1975, when the NCAA eliminated its one-bid-per-conference rule.
Since then, the tournament has produced countless memories and iconic moments. Especially when a team has a successful run in their first appearance.
Teams like Holy Cross and Loyola (Chicago) are among the few teams to win the national title in their first trip to the tournament. Larry Bird led Indiana State to their first tournament in 1979, making it all the way to the National Final. That final was a memorable one, as they were facing Magic Johnson and Michigan State. The fallout from this game made an impact in both the NCAA Tournament and the NBA.
Charlotte, in their first season as a member of the Sun Belt, made the Final Four in 1977. Lob City took the nation by storm in 2013 when Florida Gulf Coast made the Sweet 16. This was also their first appearance in the tournament.
There are currently 35 teams, not including teams still in the transition phase, that have never qualified for the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s take a look at the teams that have the most realistic chance this season of making their first tournament. The criteria used is that the team must currently be in the top three in their conference as of Feb. 13th.
Grambling (11-13, 8-3)
First season in Division I: 1977-78
Best Conference Tournament Finish: Has lost in conference finals five times
Last Conference Final appearance: 2023
The Tigers are currently a game back of first place in the Southwest Athletic Conference (SWAC), behind long-time rival Southern. This team has the third-best scoring defense in the conference, allowing 70.7 PPG. Like most low-majors, their offensive points per game are skewed due to facing power teams in the non-conference.
Jonathan Aku, a senior forward from Nigeria, ranks in the top ten in the SWAC with 5.4 rebounds per game. Tra’Michael Moton, a graduate guard, helps the Tigers from the charity stripe, shooting 84%.
A tough non-conference schedule with games against potential NCAA teams helped to prepare them for the SWAC. They are looking to become the first SWAC team to advance to the second round since Southern in 1993.
Only the top eight qualify for the tournament, with Grambling losing in the finals last season. The number one seed in the tournament hasn’t won the automatic bid since 2019.
Stetson (16-10, 8-3)
First season in Division I: 1971-72
Best Conference Tournament Finish: Has lost in conference finals three times
Last Conference Final appearance: 2016
The Hatters are currently in second place in the Atlantic Sun. They currently have the second-best field goal percentage within the conference, translating to averaging 77.1 points per game. The team’s main strength is on defense, as they have only allowed 71.5 points per game.
Jalen Blackmon, a junior guard, has been the star for the Hatters offensively, leading the A-Sun with 21.1 points per game. This was aided by senior guard Stephan Swenson, who tied for the most assists with 6.1 per game.
Looking at their resume, they have five losses that are considered Quad 4. This includes being swept by Chicago State. Stetson is looking to become the first team since Mercer in 2014 to advance past the first round.
The Hatters have only made one A-Sun final since the conference had their name changed from the Trans Atlantic Athletic Conference. The last time the number one seed, that was eligible for the NCAA Tournament, failed to win the conference tournament was in 2019.
Quinnipiac (19-5, 11-2)
First season in Division I: 1998-99
Best Conference Tournament Finish: 2nd
Last Conference Final appearance: 2010 (hasn’t made MAAC final since joining the conference in 2013)
The Bobcats currently hold a two-game lead over Fairfield for first place in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC). Quinnipiac has the top-scoring offense in the conference, averaging 78.1 PPG. On the defensive end, they have held opponents to 42.3% from the field and 68.1% from the free throw line.
Matt Balanc, a graduate guard, is one of three players in the MAAC to average over 16 PPG, dropping 18.3 per game. This includes him shooting 36.3% from beyond the arc. Sophomore forward Amari Tice has held on the defensive end, ranking in the top five in rebounds, blocks, and steals.
Looking at their resume, they have played only two games that count as Quad 1 and Quad 2. They do have one Quad 4 loss, with a conference loss to Canisius. The MAAC had its best tournament in 2022 when St. Peter’s advanced to the Elite Eight as a 15-seed.
Since the Bobcats’ first season in the MAAC, the top seed has only won the conference tournament two times. Siena was the number one seed in 2020, but didn’t get a chance to play before the tournament was canceled.
High Point (21-6, 10-2)
First season in Division I: 1999-00
Best Conference Tournament Finish: 2nd
Last Conference Final appearance: 2004
The Panthers are looking for their first appearance in a conference tournament final in 20 years. This is just the fourth time since High Point joined Division I in 2000 that they have 20 or more wins. This is in large part to the team scoring over 80 points per game for the first time in their Division I tenure. They have also been protecting the ball, ranking in the top three in the conference with 11.2 per game.
Two forwards, freshman Juslin Bodo Bodo, and sophomore Kimani Hamilton, rank in the top five in rebounds per game, averaging 9.2 and 7.4 respectively. Duke Miles, a junior guard, leads the offensive attack, ranking second in the conference with 18.3 PPG. The offensive is balanced with junior guard Trae Benham leading the league with 65 made three-pointers, shooting 40.1%.
Unlike the other teams on this list, their Quad 4 games are not littered with losses. They do have two stumbles against Queens (NC) all the way back in November, and recently to USC Upstate. Another recent loss to UNC Asheville doesn’t give the team much breathing room in the conference standings.
High Point will look to be the fourth straight number-one seed to win the conference tournament. In the last ten years, however, the number one seed has won the auto bid only four times. The Panthers want to end a string of disappointments in the tournament, having only made the semifinals six times since their 2004 finals loss.
Merrimack (16-10, 10-2)
First season in Division I: 2019-20
Best Conference Tournament Finish: Defending Tournament Champion (not eligible due to transition)
The Warriors moved up to Division I in 2019. The move, per NCAA guidelines, required a four-year transition period. This means for the first four years a team moves up from Division II, they are ineligible for any NCAA-sponsored postseason tournaments. In fact, last season was the first time they qualified for the Northeast Conference (NEC) tournament. Along with Central Connecticut State, they are the class of the conference. Tied for first place, these two teams sit three games ahead of the rest of the conference.
Merrimack ranks second in scoring defense, allowing only 66.0 PPG. One critical part of their defensive effort is stealing the ball. Three players currently rank in the top ten in steals, led by league leader Adam Clark. The freshman guard currently averages 2.5 steals per game. Jordan Derkack, a sophomore guard, leads the league in scoring, averaging 17.3 PPG.
The Warriors will have to win their conference tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament because they have three Quad 4 losses. Two of those losses were in non-conference but fell to Wagner at home back in January. Their best victory thus far is defeating UMass Lowell on Dec. 2. The NEC conference tournament has the top eight teams qualify. The tournament has had some surprise winners over the last ten years outside the top two seeds.
There is a possibility that a team buried in the lower half of their conference could shock everyone. This is because, well it’s not called March Madness for nothing.
There has been at least one team to debut in the NCAA Tournament since 1991. If one of these teams win their conference tournament, the streak will continue. One of these teams is looking to replicate FGCU’s success since they are the last team to advance past the first round in their debut.