George Bagwell gives his SEC basketball power rankings heading into week 12 of the 2023 season.
Matchup of the week: Alabama vs. Auburn (Jan. 24 – 7:30 p.m.)
Sneaky good matchup of the week: Florida vs. Georgia (Jan. 27 – Noon)
All games listed are EST.
I love covering SEC basketball. I don’t have to make sense when I’m writing about it, because SEC basketball itself doesn’t make sense. In what other world does Arkansas, a team going through an outbreak of the lack-of-effort bug, beat Texas A&M, a team known far and wide for their ability to rebound the ball? The answer, unsurprisingly actually, is Tramon Mark. Where would the Hogs be without him? Well, we’ll discuss that later.
In other news, Ole Miss (shocker) has fallen back to earth, Vanderbilt and Missouri are doing their best to set up the SEC Game of the Year™️ on February 3 when the Tigers visit Nashville, Coach Cal disguised Kristaps Porzingis in a Wildcat uniform and put him on the court, Auburn is having fun with a capital F, and Mike White is 4-0 ATS on the road (still), all while Tennessee is going to cut the nets down in Glendale.
The tumultuous week left the top four intact, (with an all-time side-eye towards Alabama) but led to movement throughout the rest of the conference. Every weekend, I compile these rankings while watching a show or listening to some of my favorite music, and that typically influences my writing style for the issue. Today, it is David Bowie. Readers, do yourself a favor and listen to some “Heroes”, “Let’s Dance”, or “Modern Love.” Without further ado, (don’t worry, there’s still plenty ado left to read) the SEC Basketball Power Rankings, volume 2, episode 12.
1) Auburn Tigers
Last week’s ranking: 1 (-)
Record: 16-2 (5-0)
Last week: W at Vanderbilt (80-65), W vs. #22 Ole Miss (82-59)
Next week: at Alabama (Jan. 24 – 7:30 p.m.), at Mississippi State (Jan. 27 – 3:30 p.m.)
Quality wins: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech
Bad losses: N/A
First off, we start off with a little road win over the Commodores, not the band, but the Nashville-based collegiate basketball team. Nothing much of note happened, but Jaylin Williams scored 21 points on just seven shots, which is absolutely worth noting. I don’t think I’ve ever done that before. SEC writers need to tune in to what he’s doing at Auburn this year. He’s the winningest player in Auburn basketball history, and now he’s shooting 63.4% from the field and 45.2% from three. This dude played with Samir Doughty in college and put on an Auburn jersey before Sharife Cooper ever stepped on campus. Shoutout, Mr. Williams.
A few weeks ago, or maybe last week, I discussed Auburn having the best bench in the conference. There is no more to discuss. The Tigers do have the best bench in the SEC, and Ole Miss found that out the hard way. By “the hard way”, I mean Ole Miss’s starters scoring 41 and Auburn’s bench scoring 40. The final score doesn’t do due justice to just how out-of-hand this game got. At one point, Bruce Pearl’s group was up 75-40. By the time the final buzzer sounded and the mercy was delivered, Auburn was jumping up and down, Neville was bouncing, and the Tigers were mobbing Addarin Scott as he scored for the second time as a Tiger.
The vibes around this team, I don’t know how to describe it, they’re immaculate, (insert the “but not in this room” GIF, please tell me y’all know to which I am referring) and tell me why these Cats aren’t getting the love they deserve. No caveats, no asterisks. For some reason, (and I’ll restrain myself from really talking about the AP voters because I don’t think they truly matter in the grand scheme of things) 14-2 Auburn was ranked below 13-3 Wisconsin, 15-2 Memphis, 12-3 Kentucky, and nine other teams. It’s like the AP voters were holding Auburn hostage for losing a road game to App State while letting Kansas (road to UCF), Kentucky (home to UNCW!), Baylor (24-point loss to Michigan State!), and Arizona (18-point loss to Stanford) have fun and hang around in the top-12-AP-poll-club. I’m (usually) never one to claim Bruce Pearl is getting the short end of the stick. But right now, in my mind, Bruce Pearl is getting the shortest end of the shortest stick the pollsters could find.
The only thing not in favor of Auburn right now, something I’ve talked about in the past few weeks, is the fact that they haven’t beaten an opponent yet that will be ranked once the new poll comes out Monday. (I’m guessing here, because I’m writing this Sunday night/early Monday morning.) But the way they’re playing, they very well look the part of a team that could stack up a few Q1 wins when they need to. And guess what? They’ll need to this week. Auburn has two tough road games against Alabama and Mississippi State. A 1-1 split is acceptable, and could even keep the Tigers in the No. 1 spot in the SEC Basketball Power Rankings, though it’s not likely with Tennessee playing just a Road Vandy™️ game this week. However, a 2-0 week would justify my habit of placing Auburn in the top 10 of the weekly poll submissions for literally the past three weeks. We’ll see what happens.
2) Tennessee Volunteers
Last week’s ranking: 2 (-)
Record: 14-4 (4-1)
Last week: W vs. Florida (85-66), W vs. Alabama (91-71)
Next week: at Vanderbilt (Jan. 27 – 6 p.m.)
Quality wins: at Wisconsin, Illinois, Ole Miss, Alabama, at Georgia, NC State
Bad losses: N/A
If it weren’t for the fact that Auburn hasn’t lost a conference game since losing to, of all teams, Arkansas, in last year’s SEC tournament, Tennessee and Rick Barnes would be No. 1 in the SEC Basketball Power Rankings. This might be the most complete team in the nation, and I’m not joking when I say that. It’s not some grand exaggeration to say in a year with no clear-cut national favorite that this Tennessee Volunteers team is capable of winning six games in a row against good competition. This is a team that is light years ahead of where they were at the start of the season, and that’s due to Zakai Zeigler’s improved health in his return from his ACL tear suffered last season.
But do we need proof of this turnaround? It’s right in front of us. Blowouts of Florida and Alabama? Scratch that. Through dismantlings of Florida and Alabama. Florida made 20 shots in the game as a team. Dalton Knecht himself made 13. Enough said. Against ‘Bama, the Tide’s hit-or-miss offense did their fair share of missing and more than their fair share of giving the ball to the ‘Vols. Tennessee forced 22 turnovers, (more on that later down in this article) while committing just 7. That led to, at one point, a 27-point lead, before the 91-71 final score. Dalton Knecht has scored 28, 36, 39, and 25 points in his last four games. That’s elite, y’all. Now is the proper time to start saying “Dalton Knecht” and “Wooden Award” in the same sentence.
What do the SEC scheduling gurus decide to give Rick Barnes and Company this week? A slight rest, followed by a game against Road Vandy™️. Favorable? One could make that observation, and I would not stand to disagree. Also of note, but Tennessee’s remaining home schedule consists of South Carolina, LSU, Vandy, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Kentucky. Those are some tough teams, sure, but good luck to any of them wanting to actually knock off this team in Knoxville. It is truly a Herculean task.
3) Kentucky Wildcats
Last week’s ranking: 3 (-)
Record: 14-3 (4-1)
Last week: W vs. Mississippi State (90-77), W vs. Georgia (105-96)
Next week: at South Carolina (Jan. 23 – 7 p.m.), at Arkansas (Jan. 27 – 6 p.m.)
Quality wins: North Carolina, at Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia
Bad losses: UNC Wilmington
Just when the haters count out Coach Cal, (don’t look up my preseason SEC preview) he pulls out a joker from a deck of cards. Or, more accurately, he pulls out Stojko Vranković. There’s a blast from the past, y’all. Y’all thought I wasn’t well-versed in Balkan Ballers? This is why I get paid the big bucks. (I get paid in smiles and good vibes.) But now that I’ve brought up Stojko, I feel I have to pay homage to fellow Croatian compatriot Dražen Petrović.
Any reader old enough to know him surely does, but readers born after his death may not have heard of him, which is unfortunate. Put shortly, the history of Croatian basketball is markedly insufficient without the Šibenik native, so much so that I’m not entirely sure that Zvonimir Ivišić would be a Kentucky Wildcat if it weren’t for Dražen. Though his NBA career spanned just five seasons and 290 games, he is one of the most decorated FIBA and EuroLeague players of all time and represented both Yugoslavia and Croatia during his national team career. In the 1992 Barcelona Olympics final, Petrović scored a game-high 24 points in a loss, more than anyone else on Croatia and more than anyone on the American Dream Team. As an NBA player, he experienced high levels of success as a shooter for the Nets, averaging 22.3 PPG on 44.9% shooting from deep in his last season in 1992-93. That’s elite, y’all.
Petrović was killed in an automobile accident on the Autobahn in the offseason following that season. He was 28. I hate these kinds of stories. Dražen was a trailblazer, a role model not just for Croatian players, but for any European kid growing up with a basketball in their hands and a net nearby. I don’t want to put words in the mouth of Ivišić, but I’m sure the newest greatest Wildcat has heard the tale of Petrović countless times. Readers, find time today, or this week, to go watch his highlights on YouTube with a bowl of ice cream, marvel at his abilities, and then go cry for a few minutes. You wouldn’t be the first.
Back to Kentucky basketball, because I have to eventually return to my assignment. The Wildcats didn’t have Ivišić for their game against Mississippi State, but that didn’t seem to matter, as Antonio Reeves was electric, scoring 27. The big difference in that game was fouls, as Kentucky drew 18 but committed just nine, a huge accomplishment for a team filled with underclassmen. Against Georgia, the big story pregame, of course, was the NCAA granting eligibility to Ivišić. However, the big story in-game was literally the same story. In 16 minutes, Ivišić scored 13 points on 5-7 shooting (3-4 from deep), along with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks, 2 turnovers, 1 flagrant, and 1 technical for rim-hanging. I love this dude, as does the entirety of the Kentucky fanbase.
In terms of smaller subplots within the game, the Kentucky defense was akin to swiss cheese, especially late in the game. While the ‘Cats scored 51 in the second half, Georgia actually put up 61 in the last 20 minutes, which isn’t great if you’re a Kentucky fan. Jabri Abdur-Rahim and Silas Demary Jr. combined for 56, and Georgia went 27-35 from the line. Another smaller subplot, this one a positive, was Kentucky’s shooting and ball movement. The Wildcats shot 14-25 from deep and tallied 27 assists. Do that every game and the defense won’t even matter. (On that topic, it’s a crime that Alabama has a higher KenPom efficiency than Kentucky. Are we sure that the formula isn’t out of whack?)
This week, Kentucky has to travel to Columbia, which, for what it’s worth, is a pretty tough game this year. Ivišić and Bradshaw vs. B.J. Mack and Collin Murray-Boyles? Sign me up. (I will be there.) Then comes literal College Gameday in Fayetteville for some reason. It would not surprise me if the final score was something like 107-64 in favor of Kentucky, with Tramon Mark still scoring 27. With expectations as high as Snoop at this point in the season, anything other than 2-0 this week would be seen as a disappointment, which speaks more towards the strength of Kentucky than any weaknesses South Carolina may have, though some definite Arkansas shade is getting through there.
4) Alabama Crimson Tide
Last week’s ranking: 4 (-)
Record: 12-6 (4-1)
Last week: W vs. Missouri (93-75), L at #6 Tennessee (71-91)
Next week: vs. #8 Auburn (Jan. 24 – 7:30 p.m.), vs. LSU (Jan. 27 – 8 p.m.)
Quality wins: Oregon, Indiana State, at Mississippi State, South Carolina
Bad losses: N/A
I told the SEC Basketball Power Rankings family to buy Alabama stock prior to conference games starting, and then sell it before they play Tennessee. Let me see if I can find it. One second. Ok, here we go: “I would buy all the Alabama stock I could right now, and then sell most of it before the Tennessee road matchup in mid-January.”
That was from December 28, 2023, and what did the Tide do? Just win their next five games in a row and lose by 20 to Tennessee. Call me Gordon Gekko. This is like the first time I’ve been this accurate in a while, so y’all please let me ride my own coattails. Alabama started last week with a win over Missouri that was much closer for most of the game than the final score lets on. Also, Nate Oats shoved a Missouri player and Mark Sears’s ankle didn’t look 100 percent. Just your typical home game against an 0-3 conference opponent. Aaron Estrada and Rylan Griffen played the role of hero, each scoring 21.
Then came trouble. Tennessee, who is clicking on all cylinders at this point, was ready for the game against Alabama in Knoxville. Alabama was not. It was as simple as that. With Mark Sears (who has been the soul of this offense) not looking 100%, Alabama could not stop turning the ball over, ending up with 22 turnovers by the time the final buzzer sounded. In addition to the giveaways, the stifling Vol defense held the Tide to below 20% from deep, which is basically a death sentence for this offensive scheme. Under Nate Oats, when shooting under 20% from three, Alabama is 3-8, including 0-3 this year. If the shots aren’t falling, Alabama’s not winning. That showed against Tennessee, and we’re hoping Mark Sears is ok, because he is just a pure joy to watch.
This week, Alabama gets two home games against two opponents that have been playing either elite (Auburn) or pretty good (LSU), and they can’t afford to show up the same way they did against Tennessee, or else it will be a rough day for the Tide. This is the best Auburn has played coming into this rivalry in a couple of years, and they will no doubt be filled with notions of revenge following last year’s fall-apart. Alabama has a big opportunity this week, and they could either take advantage of it or be sent down the rankings.
5) Georgia Bulldogs
Last week’s ranking: 9 (+4)
Record: 13-5 (3-2)
Last week: W at South Carolina (74-69), L at #8 Kentucky (96-105)
Next week: vs. LSU (Jan. 24 – 6:30 p.m.), at Florida (Jan. 27 – Noon)
Quality wins: Wake Forest, at South Carolina, at Florida State
Bad losses: N/A
“Why is Georgia in the top 5?,” I can already hear the readers’ question. Because they’ve earned it? Clearly. Let’s see another team beat South Carolina at home. The last to do so? Brandon Miller and the Crimson Tide exactly 11 months ago, and even he needed overtime. I’ve told my audience to doubt Mike White at their own peril, and yet the haters persist. This team is taking care of business, and having fun doing it. Are we at SEC Basketball Power Rankings supposed to punish these Dawgs for losing a single-digit contest in Rupp against an NBA team? If anyone saw this last week of Georgia basketball and their first thought was “fraudulent”, they need their basketball take privilege permanently revoked. There’s a clear top 3 in the SEC right now, but everything after that is free for the taking. Who’s to say Georgia won’t take it?
“How can a team that doesn’t force turnovers, doesn’t rebound particularly well, and doesn’t shoot well at all inside the arc become a top-tier SEC team?” Well, similar to Texas A&M last year, this team is excellent at drawing fouls, ranking 11th nationally. And unlike Texas A&M, this team can shoot from the perimeter, courtesy of Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Noah Thomasson, and Blue Cain. Playing two Q1 games and ending up winning one of them is a pretty good week, and when combined with beating a team above them in the rankings, other teams going 0-2 (Ole Miss-sized side-eye) or losing to Arkansas, (Texas A&M had a rough day) it’s clear that Georgia deserved to make this jump in the SEC Basketball Power Rankings.
This week, Georgia has an excellent chance to build on a strong start in SEC games with a home game against LSU and a road matchup in Gainesville for the Mike White Bowl Volume 3.0. Currently, I think it’s safe to say that Georgia is playing at a slightly better level than both those teams. I don’t mean that in a sarcastic way, I mean that in the truth type of way. Georgia is currently playing at a slightly better level. LSU and Florida can be strong, but they also both have very visible flaws that Georgia and Mike White can exploit. If there’s ever a toss-up, and one of the options is Mike White, choose Mike White.
6) South Carolina Gamecocks
Last week’s ranking: 7 (+1)
Record: 15-3 (3-2)
Last week: L vs. Georgia (69-74), W at Arkansas (77-64)
Next week: vs. #6 Kentucky (Jan. 23 – 7 p.m.), vs. Missouri (Jan. 27 – 1 p.m.)
Best wins: Grand Canyon, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech
Bad losses: N/A
South Carolina currently is in the same situation as last-week Georgia. That is, having been oh-so-close to being in a much better situation. If these ‘Cocks had beaten Georgia, (they led by nine at one point in the second half) we’d be talking about a 16-2 SEC team with a 4-1 conference record. Instead, we’re talking about a 15-3 team with a 3-2 conference record, which is still great, don’t get me wrong, but also isn’t 16-2, which would’ve gotten the Gamecocks receiving votes in the AP poll going into this week’s homestand.
While the team struggled with rebounds, fouled Georgia 24 times, and shot just 17-32 from the line in what turned out to be a five-point game, they still almost won. That’s the copper lining, and while moral victories don’t mean much in SEC country, South Carolina showed they were much capable of playing at a much higher level when they gave Arkansas a black eye in Fayetteville on Saturday, marking the 5th outright win as an underdog just this season for Lamont Paris. Big man B.J. Mack started to find his outside shooting stroke again against Arkansas, and that could be big news for this team in the absence of Myles Stute, who’s unfortunately going to miss a couple weeks with a shoulder injury.
This week, South Carolina gets a huge opportunity at home against Kentucky. Believe it or not, the Gamecocks actually beat the ‘Cats last year in Rupp after Meechie Johnson dropped 26 on Coach Cal’s group. Kentucky entered that game as -19.5 favorites. Remember that Lamont Paris has never lost to Calipari as a head coach, and was even on the Wisconsin coaching staff when they took down Kentucky’s dream season in 2015. Paris has Cal’s number so far, but we’ll see if that maintains. If it does, expect South Carolina to jump up these rankings, granted they scoot past a feisty Missouri team on Saturday.
7) Mississippi State Bulldogs
Last week’s ranking: 8 (+1)
Record: 13-5 (2-3)
Last week: L at #8 Kentucky (77-90), W vs. Vanderbilt (68-55)
Next week: at Florida (Jan. 24 – 8:30 p.m.), vs. #8 Auburn (Jan. 27 – 3:30 p.m.)
Quality wins: Tennessee, Northwestern, Washington State
Bad losses: Southern
There’s something to be said for Dawgs. By definition, a dog is a “domesticated carnivorous mammal that typically has a long snout, an acute sense of smell, non-retractable claws, and a barking, howling, or whining voice.” But a Dawg? A Dawg is going to dive for every loose ball, box out on every rebound, and chase his shot if he misses. A Dawg keeps its mind on one thing, and that’s “see ball, get ball.” It doesn’t matter if it’s “pretty” basketball or not, and to be clear, it’s better if it’s not pretty. I like basketball. I like good art and intricate architecture, along with a nice glass of Portuguese white wine. But “pretty” and “basketball” surely don’t need to be mutually inclusive. Just ask Mississippi State.
Chris Jans’s group is all Dawg, and the Bulldog (BullDawg) moniker is well deserved. Tolu Smith, Jimmy Bell Jr., and Cameron Matthews are all Dawgs in the post, and are always hustling. Not to mention freshman Josh Hubbard, the do-it-all offensive marvel who should be starting. This team is like Houston Lite, which is a compliment. Houston has a better defense and a more balanced offense, but one could at least point out the similarities between the two programs without being ridiculed, which is more than a lot of teams can say. The best part of this team and style of play is how frustrating it is to play against. Scoring is difficult enough with a normal defense. Now imagine trying to find glimpses of an open lane to drive into, only to be met by Tolu Smith or Jimmy Bell Jr. in the paint. That’s tough.
This week, the BullDawgs have a good shot to show dominance on the glass by playing another good rebounding team, Florida, in Gainesville. If Chris Jans’s men can get past the Gators and play a physical brand of basketball, it could set them up well for their home game against Auburn. No pulling punches here, it’s a difficult slate this week for Mississippi State. But they’ve already beaten Tennessee this conference season, so we know they certainly have the potential to beat Florida or Auburn. This is resume-building season, y’all.
8) Texas A&M Aggies
Last week’s ranking: 6 (-2)
Record: 11-7 (2-3)
Last week: L at Arkansas (77-78), W at LSU (73-69)
Next week: vs. Missouri (Jan. 23 – 9 p.m.), vs. Ole Miss (Jan. 27 – 8:30 p.m.)
Quality wins: Kentucky, at Ohio State, Iowa State, at SMU
Bad losses: at Arkansas
The Aggies move down two spots, because as much as we’d like to reward them for avenging their home loss to LSU, they did lose to 2023-24 Arkansas™️, joining the likes of Abilene Christian, UNCW, Furman, and Duke, but not UNCG, Memphis, Georgia, or South Carolina, who all managed to beat possibly the worst Arkansas basketball team since Mike Anderson’s first year, way back in 2011-12. I still can’t believe that Wade Taylor IV went for 41 against Arkansas and the Aggies still lost. That actually blows my mind. Not to mention Texas A&M committing just two (2!) turnovers and still losing. It stings to lose on a game-winning shot, but I would imagine even more so after you’ve come back from 20 points down to take the lead against a really bad team. But the best course of action, as always, is to move forward from a demoralizing loss. That’s what Texas A&M did with a road win in Baton Rouge, controlling the boards in what turned out to be a close outright win as an underdog. Good teams play well, but great teams bounce back.
Despite a not-too-impressive 11-7 overall record and 2-3 conference split so far, the Aggies are in the driver’s seat in terms of their upcoming schedule. They play Missouri and Ole Miss at home this week, followed by another home game against Florida and a road game against Missouri the next week. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team went 4-0 in those games, but I should also mention the fact that we can’t just keep giving this team the benefit of doubt. Eventually, they’ll have to start consistently winning the games they need to.
9) LSU Tigers
Last week’s ranking: 11 (+2)
Record: 11-7 (3-2)
Last week: W vs. Ole Miss (89-80), L vs. Texas A&M (69-73)
Next week: at Georgia (Jan. 24 – 6:30 p.m.), at Alabama (Jan. 27 – 8 p.m.)
Quality wins: Wake Forest, Ole Miss, at Texas A&M
Bad losses: Nicholls State
I may be the biggest LSU believer in the conference, currently. There’s just something about this team, whether you think of me as telling the truth or not. It’s poetic, at least in my mind. When I watch LSU basketball, the on-court product turns presses and passes to paragraphs and prose, and it seems all is perfectly balanced. Renaissance-era art reflects across the borders of my brain when the Bengals ball. 2023-24 LSU basketball is the Bellini in a world in which there is no Michelangelo. At their best, these Tigers are Botticelli, and each basket brings a paint-stroke of Primavera to a wintry wonderland this January in the bayou. The easel is never empty, and with more time with a pinceau à la main, the finished product will be a une marche en marche.
For those that do not speak French, (I don’t either) or don’t like art, (this one I cannot excuse) the author thinks these Tigers have what it takes to make the tournament. I’m not joking either. Just two teams in the past two SEC seasons have averaged +9.0 SPG, and it’s just Last Season Missouri™️ and this LSU team, who’s currently leading the SEC with 9.3 SPG. Jordan Wright, Mike Williams III, Jalen Cook, and Trae Hannibal are all averaging at least 1.0 SPG, and the team’s steal percentage of 13.3% ranks highest in the SEC. Per KenPom, this defense is ranked 51st nationally, behind teams such as Notre Dame, UCLA, and Richmond. But I don’t believe that. I mean, I am the analytics guy. But surely, I’m allowed to doubt the validity of certain formulas, right? Not every number should be taken at face value, and it’s dangerous to subscribe to a singular catch-all metric.
At risk of sounding like an oldhead, my catch-all metric is my eyes. I watch LSU’s games with the intent to observe. And what I see is magical. Passing lanes are quickly closed, and by the time the ball’s in the air, it’s too late. LSU is on a fastbreak already. The numbers say LSU doesn’t have the depth to compete this year in the SEC, or that early losses doom the Tigers to an NIT appearance. But these are numbers that I don’t trust. I don’t properly know how to describe it. Some paintings, some that are very highly prized, are simply colors on a space. But some, even in the corners of rooms long forgotten, have the magical ability to catch the eye of an observer, keep a glance, and procure a sense of attachment and belonging deep inside those who want to know the whole story of by and for whom such a masterpiece was created. Some of the best works are made not with the intent to frame, but rather to sit and wonder. Even in the corner of a crowded SEC room, the painting that LSU is in the midst of fabricating is special, at least in my eyes. Art is subjective of course, and that’s what makes it so powerful.
This week, battles against Georgia and Alabama on the road will be etched into canvas as the Tigers take a drive up the interstates. Tempering expectations, it’s reasonable to suggest a 1-1 record is acceptable and an 0-2 record is a setback but not the end of the world. If these Tigers end up sweeping the week, well, that would just be surrealist. Here’s to the Bretons and Kahlos of the basketball world.
10) Ole Miss Rebels
Last week’s ranking: 5 (-5)
Record: 15-3 (2-3)
Last week: L at LSU (80-89), L at #13 Auburn (59-82)
Next week: vs. Arkansas (Jan. 24 – 9 p.m.), at Texas A&M (Jan. 27 – 8:30 p.m.)
Quality wins: Memphis, at UCF, NC State
Bad losses: N/A
There are 362 D-1 teams currently playing college basketball. Per KenPom, Ole Miss has the highest “luck rating” of all of them. Is that bad or good? There are two ways of looking at it. One is that Ole Miss is a team of destiny and is bound to win every one-possession game for as long as this season continues. The other is that Ole Miss isn’t as good as the media makes them out to be and that an immediate regression toward the mean is imminent, if not already started. Just based on last week’s results, I think it’s more likely the latter. The Rebels lost to LSU on the road, giving up 89 points in Baton Rouge before letting up 82 to Auburn, a far cry from the defensive efforts of weeks earlier. It’s very possible that this team is falling, and will continue to fall, back to earth. Maybe the quick start to the season really was a mirage.
And yes, I’ll relent that, like any team, it’s possible Ole Miss has simply had a bad stretch of games and is on track to stabilize and get back on track. That’s certainly a possibility. It’s not just one that I’m currently subscribing to.
But, that doesn’t mean I don’t think that Ole Miss has an opportunity to prove me wrong this week. With the ultimate get-right game, a home matchup with Arkansas staring the Rebels in the face, Ole Miss has that chance to prove the doubters (myself) wrong before a tough road matchup with the Aggies in College Station. A 1-1 record this week sounds reasonable, while a 2-0 record would really help the Rebels’ case for staying in the pack for the SEC. On the other hand, a winless slate this week would really start to set off the alarm bells.
11) Florida Gators
Last week’s ranking: 10 (-1)
Record: 12-6 (2-3)
Last week: L at #6 Tennessee (66-85), W at Missouri (79-67)
Next week: vs. Mississippi State (Jan. 24 – 8:30 p.m.), vs. Georgia (Jan. 27 – Noon)
Quality wins: Florida State
Bad losses: N/A
Hit play on David Bowie’s “Moonage Daydream” and turn it to the beginning. “I’m an alligator.” Wait, no, that’s not it. Skip forward on the cassette to the fifth song (“It Ain’t Easy”) on that album, the marvelous The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars, and skip to the 1:20 mark. There we go. “Sometimes it’ll take you right up and sometimes down again.” And that’s been, for better or for worse, the modus operandi for Florida basketball this year. Beating the teams it should, (mostly), while coming up short against any superior competition. Last week? Florida got run out of the gym in Knoxville and beat a winless (in SEC games) Missouri team. That’s not really going to move the needle, or at least my needle.
But, it’s not going to kill them. The Gators have plenty of time to stack up some Q1 wins this season, including games on the road against Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Alabama, as well as home games against Auburn and, check notes, Alabama. One win against the Crimson Tide would be nice. Also, though, I feel like Todd Golden could or should be kicking himself for losing the Kentucky game. A win there and Florida would be 13-5 (3-2), with one of the best wins in the SEC. My whole narrative would be blown out of the water. My very real concerns would be laughable, absurdist, and otherwise ludicrous.
Ludacris? Let’s not act a fool this week, Florida, when Mississippi State and Georgia come to the 352 area codes. How low could this team fall with a rough slate? Enough to experience some growing pains, and Saturday, ooh, ooh, we get the Mike White Revenge Special 3.0. Though Golden is 2-0 in such games, who knows what could happen this year? Here’s the question, though. Could Florida sweep the week? Don’t put your money on it yet, and that’s some DMX for you, readers of the SEC Basketball Power Rankings. Now get back to reading about Arkansas.
12) Arkansas Razorbacks
Last week’s ranking: 13 (+1)
Record: 10-8 (1-4)
Last week: W vs. Texas A&M (78-77), L vs. South Carolina (64-77)
Next week: at Ole Miss (Jan. 24 – 9 p.m.), vs. #6 Kentucky (Jan. 27 – 6 p.m.)
Quality wins: Duke, Texas A&M
Bad losses: UNC Greensboro
I should’ve known. I should’ve seen this coming. I should’ve said Arkansas was going to beat Texas A&M, because then, at least according to SEC Basketball Power Rankings modern history, they would’ve lost. I don’t have the sufficient words for another Arkansas rant tonight, but Eric Musselman should be thanking his lucky stars that Tramon Mark is a Razorback. To put it into perspective, El Ellis has scored 102 points this year. Mark has scored 107…more points than the next-highest mark of 196, set by Khalif Battle. Tramon’s total of 303 puts him amongst a sextet (real word, by the way) of SEC players with 300+ points this season, joining Mark Sears, Wade Taylor IV, Dalton Knecht, Antonio Reeves, and Matthew Murrell. That’s some company.
But we’re bringing him up today because he’s the sole reason Arkansas ended up with a 78-77 victory over Texas A&M at home last week. The Houston transfer made 8 shots and still scored 35 points, which is clinically insane. Despite an early 34-14 lead, Arkansas decided they didn’t want to win, and let the Aggies take the lead with seven seconds left on a falling-down, clutch Wade Taylor IV three-pointer. (I’ve developed carpal tunnel from having to type out that sentence so much.) That’s when Tramon Mark drove down the court like the Las Vegas judge-jumper and countered Taylor IV with an athletic finish to give Arkansas their first conference win since the SEC Tournament against Auburn last year. Since that game, Arkansas is 1-5 in SEC basketball games. Auburn is 5-0.
Of course, Arkansas immediately looked flat against the Gamecocks of Columbia, allowing multiple defensive lapses, producing many offensive lapses, and looking generally uninterested in playing basketball at times, which is why they only moved up one spot to No. 12 in the vaunted SEC Basketball Power Rankings. This week, they have a possibly winnable matchup against a suddenly-iffy Ole Miss squad before a less-winnable matchup at home against the closest thing college basketball has to an NBA team. I don’t take bets, but I would be willing to suggest that Arkansas is going to be in the Bottom Three again by the time I do this writing next weekend.
13) Missouri Tigers
Last week’s ranking: 12 (-1)
Record: 8-10 (0-5)
Last week: L at Alabama (75-93), L vs. Florida (67-79)
Next week: at Texas A&M (Jan. 23 – 9 p.m.), at South Carolina (Jan. 27 – 1 p.m.)
Quality wins: at Pitt
Bad losses: Jackson State
Missouri has not covered the spread in any of their conference games so far. That makes them the only Power 6 team to do so, a distinction also (bizarrely) shared by Florida Atlantic. As we often do with teams in the Bottom 3 of the SEC Basketball Power Rankings, we will search for a positive to be found. This week, it’s Tamar Bates. The Indiana transfer has simply found a new gear in recent weeks, and he’s dropped 10+ in each of his past eight games, including a career-high 36 on Florida, more than half of Mizzou’s points. Even with that performance, it wasn’t enough for the Tigers to get their first conference win, as Florida simply commanded the boards for most of the game in what turned out to be the team’s 3rd double-digit loss in 4 games. Earlier in the week, Missouri played Alabama a bit closer, even though the final score didn’t show it. Aidan Shaw was shoved by Nate Oats, who was reprimanded by Greg Sankey but not given a technical during the game, which makes the reprimand useless, but I digress. One particular Tiger who played well in this game was Jesus Carralero Martin, the Campbell transfer who reached double-figures for the first time this season in a 10-point effort on 4-7 shooting from the field.
Looking ahead, Missouri plays two tough road games this week, one in College Station and the other in Columbia, SC. There’s certainly a non-zero chance of Missouri getting a win in one of those games, and they’ve already played South Carolina close back home in the other Columbia. Any game with East II, Bates, and Honor in the backcourt means a chance, and all Dennis Gates needs is a chance in order to make an impact. I implore the reader to remind themselves of that. There is no such thing as a “lost season”, just individual losses. Every 40 minutes is its own season, and unlike football, or baseball, or basically every other professional sport, college basketball teams control their own destiny until the final buzzer sounds in the conference tournament. Missouri can end up 8-23 and still make the tournament, technically. It’s never over until the math says it’s over, and while that’s a depressing sentence to cope with in mid-January, it is, technically, true.
14) Vanderbilt Commodores
Last week’s ranking: 14 (-)
Record: 5-13 (0-5)
Last week: L vs. #13 Auburn (65-80), L at Mississippi State (55-68)
Next week: vs. #5 Tennessee (Jan. 27 – 6 p.m.)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: Presbyterian, Western Carolina, Boston College
I want to give Vanderbilt and Coach Jerry Stackhouse some credit here. He’s twisted up the rotation, given players different minutes, thrown some dice rolls with lineups, and overall just thrown the whole bag and then some at the ‘Dores’ last two opponents. Jason Rivera-Torres made his first career start, (which gives me a sneaking suspicion Coach Stack read last week’s edition) and while it didn’t lead to a win, Vanderbilt has put up respectable performances in, honestly, all of their conference games so far. They haven’t been blown out in any game, comparative to other teams/expectations, and they haven’t lacked effort. Vanderbilt is playing basketball, just not at quite high enough of a level. And that’s ok. We will get there, Vanderbilt, together.
I promise. One of these days, Vanderbilt will get an in-conference win that will cost either Florida or LSU a chance to play in the tournament. Per ESPN’s analytics, (who I’m constantly at war with) Vanderbilt isn’t favored in any of their remaining games. But they have a >30% chance to win at home against Mizzou or LSU, per ESPN. This week’s game, though? Just a 5.3% chance to win against one of the best teams in the country, Rick Barnes’s Vols. Unless Ezra Manjon, Tyrin Lawrence, and Jason Rivera-Torres combine for 80, I just don’t see the ‘Dores keeping up with Tennessee. But will they play gritty? Absolutely. That’s one thing that will continue to ring true.