The Panthers looked to be back on track for another March Madness run through their first eight games. These last eight games, however, have been questionable at best as conference play hasn’t been kind to Pitt.
Even though Pitt has gone 5-3 in its most recent eight games and sits at 10-6 overall, the quality of play from the start of the season has drastically declined.
Winning just one game through the first five in ACC play is certainly not an ideal start for Jeff Capel’s group. That lone win coming on the road against Louisville with home losses in the conference to Clemson, North Carolina and Duke; this doesn’t include the loss on the road against Syracuse. A 1-4 ACC record is not what Capel had in mind to start conference play, but there is plenty of time to turn things around.
Takeaway #1: Lack of rebounds is killing the Panthers
As mentioned above, Pitt’s record in its first five conference games is 1-4. The only ACC game where the Panthers had more rebounds than their opponent… the 83-70 win at Louisville. In the four conference losses, the Panthers are recording an average of 8.5 rebounds per game less than the teams they have faced, with the team suffering a rebound differential of -16 at home to Duke. To put it kindly, this is unacceptable for a group trying to do better than last year’s group and reach the Sweet 16 for first time since 2009.
It was mentioned in the first quarter review of the Pitt season, and I will reiterate it here: nothing else is going to matter if Pitt can’t win the battle on the glass. Offensive rebounds extend possessions, and defensive rebounds start possessions as well as end possessions for the other team. The Panthers have broken even with offensive rebounds through the ACC losses meaning in four games, this group has grabbed 34 less defensive rebounds than its counterpart. This has to improve as soon as possible.
Takeaway #2: Pitt’s defense is improving every time it takes the floor
Capel had two options at the end of last season: replace the shooters he lost with more shooters or try to tighten up the team defensively. The veteran head coach opted for the latter of the two choices with bringing in players who would help his team in the backcourt such as Zack Austin and Ishmael Leggett. The guard/forward combination has certainly helped the Panthers defensive efforts as they are on pace to concede 3.6 points per game less this year than last year.
Would Capel like that number to be higher? Without a doubt. But think about how much worse the losses would be this season without those two. You can look at the scores from last year and cite that the games against these teams were closer or even ended in Pitt’s favor. That difference is a result of less offensive production; defensive issues are not the problem, and the table below proves this statement.
| Game | Opponent Points 22/23 | Opponent Points 23/24 | +/- | Pitt Points 22/23 | Pitt Points 23/24 | +/- |
| Clemson (H) | 75 | 79 | -4 | 74 | 70 | -4 |
| Syracuse (A) | 82 | 81 | +1 | 84 | 73 | -9 |
| UNC (H) | 74 | 70 | +4 | 76 | 57 | -19 |
| Duke (H)** | 77 | 75 | +2 | 69 | 53 | -16 |
The defense is taking steps forward while the offense is regressing.
Takeaway #3: The Panthers have to start winning ACC games, and the schedule doesn’t get easier
Pitt started 4-1 in conference play last season that includes wins over Syracuse and then-ranked #25 North Carolina: two matchups that the Panthers have lost this season. While it may be a more difficult schedule this season as opposed to a year ago, the opponents are the same. Mostly every single Power 6 team in college basketball is going to take steps forward from one year to the next unless there are existential circumstances that prevent it from happening (i.e. Rebuild or WVU situation).
Jeff Capel knows how to beat these teams, as he beat 10 of them just last year. While he hasn’t gotten the better of his alma mater yet, that is a possibility to happen very soon. One thing that is a certainty, though, is he has to get this group ready to go for the final eight weeks of this season. The bar was raised after last year, and Capel is projecting to fall short of expectations unless things get better.
The Panthers are back in action on Tuesday, Jan. 16 for the second matchup of the season against Syracuse. After being defeated on the road in a close matchup with the Orange, Pitt will be looking to force a season split.