These mid-major teams have put themselves on the radar heading into conference play for the 2023-24 season.
As a new year approaches, college basketball will begin to take a larger spotlight. High-profile conference games will take center stage along with the talk of how much of an impact one game can have on a team’s tournament profile. However, at the mid-major level, many opportunities to build at-large worthy profiles have passed. Conference play tends to only offer up landmines that can undo two months worth of work in one 40 minute span. Heading into January, these mid-major programs could make cases for at-large bids right now.
Dayton Flyers
NET: 22; KenPom 36; ESPN SOR: 11
The past few seasons it seems as though Dayton has had high expectations that have faded as the season has wore on. This year, for now, looks different. The Flyers have favorable metrics and wins over St. John’s and Cincinnati, who are both riding the bubble themselves at this stage of the season. The Atlantic 10 is looking stronger than it has in recent memory, but Dayton will still need to take care of business in league play and not let doubt creep in because of head-scratching A-10 losses.
Princeton Tigers
NET: 24; KenPom: 55; ESPN SOR: 19
Princeton isn’t shocking anyone this season, even though Yale appeared to be the Ivy League favorite coming into the 2023-24 season. Instead, the Tigers have picked right up from their Sweet 16 appearance last season with an 11-1 start thus far this season. Their best win is over Rutgers on a neutral court, so the Scarlet Knights’ success will be key. A near perfect Ivy League record could keep those metrics high and make it tough to leave the Tigers out no matter what.
Drake Bulldogs
NET: 73; KenPom: 73; ESPN SOR: 60
Drake’s biggest knock will be their non-conference schedule. The Bulldogs’ best win is over Nevada on a neutral court, but they have countered that with losses to Stephen F. Austin and UAB (both away from home). The perceived strength of the Missouri Valley Conference, at least right now, could help, especially with Indiana State’s strong start. However, the best advice at the moment would be to take Arch Madness in a few months.
Indiana State Sycamores
NET: 23; KenPom: 59; ESPN SOR: 23
You could make the case that Indiana State’s metrics are a little inflated at the moment due to large margins of victory in many of their 11 wins. Their only loss was early on the road against Alabama. Many of their wins are against other solid mid-majors, but the lack of power conference victories could haunt them down the line. A strong showing in league play might be needed, and even then it might not be enough. Still, it’s hard to ignore their 11-1 start and the high early metrics.
Boise State Broncos
NET: 75; KenPom: 72; ESPN SOR: 70
I know, none of those metrics look pretty. But, all four Boise State’s losses this year have been to power conference opponents. While that won’t help their profile down the line, the Broncos play in the strongest mid-major league in the nation, so opportunities to boost themselves will be plenty. One disappointing aspect for Boise State is Saint Mary’s, as the Gaels have made BSU’s win over them look less than impressive thus far. The Broncos get 10 games against their Mountain West foes on this list.
Colorado State Rams
NET: 16; KenPom: 28; ESPN SOR: 10
One of the biggest surprises of the season thus far has come out of Fort Collins, Colorado. The Rams announced themselves with a four-game sweep of Boston College, Creighton, Colorado, and Washington in late November and early December. Their one blemish was to Saint Mary’s, but that might mean more for the Gaels than the Rams in the bigger picture. Right now, CSU is in the protected seed conversation, but that also comes with the understanding that the target will be on them when Mountain West play begins.
Nevada Wolf Pack
NET: 37; KenPom: 38; ESPN SOR: 18
Nevada is another Mountain West program that has stacked some power conference victories. Wins over Washington, TCU, and Georgia Tech will be great measuring sticks if any of those schools end up riding the bubble in late February. Their lone loss to Drake isn’t terrible, especially if the Bulldogs end up winning the Missouri Valley Conference. League play will be a battle, but if the Wolf Pack win the ones they’re supposed to and split the others, they should be in good shape.
New Mexico Lobos
NET: 35; KenPom: 34; ESPN SOR: 29
New Mexico certainly felt like they were good enough to be dancing in March last season, but that disappointment is fueling an impressive early start in 2023-24. The Lobos also have just one loss, also coming at the hands of Saint Mary’s back in early November. Wins since then over the likes of UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech, and Toledo won’t turn heads, but they are impressive. Right now, the Lobos look like a true bubble team that will need sustained success in Mountain West play to prove they shouldn’t be left out of the bracket for a second straight season.
San Diego State Aztecs
NET: 29; KenPom: 30; ESPN SOR: 24
Last season’s national runner-up needs no formal introduction. The Aztecs once again look like the potential class of the Mountain West, though the competition is arguably stiffer than ever. San Diego State is missing a marquee win, though wins over Washington and Stanford are nice. They’ll get their chance against Gonzaga tomorrow, but will be relying on their conference foes otherwise. If last season taught us anything, don’t sleep on SDSU regardless of where they end up.
Utah State Aggies
NET: 40; KenPom: 62; ESPN SOR: 20
The metrics are in disagreement over the Aggies. At 12-1, Utah State has one of the best records in the country of any team that isn’t undefeated. Their lone loss was to Bradley on the road, which didn’t look as bad until the Braves suffered a five-game skid recently. Utah State’s profile is leaning heavily on other solid mid-major teams like Akron, San Francisco, and Santa Clara. The Aggies can certainly hold their own during league play, but that non-conference schedule could be a negative when comparing profiles in March.
James Madison Dukes
NET: 32; KenPom: 68; ESPN SOR: 4
The most burning question in Harrisonburg, Virginia right now: can James Madison run the table? The Dukes announced themselves on opening night by taking down a Michigan State team ranked in the top five at the time on the road in overtime. Since then, JMU has navigated a non-conference schedule dotted with fellow mid-major programs. All that’s left is Sun Belt play, where more landmines than opportunities await them. The longer they can remain undefeated the better, but how much pressure will that put on them as the calendar keeps flipping? The Dukes are a fantastic story, but playing near perfect may still be necessary to remain in at-large talks.
Grand Canyon Antelopes
NET: 41; KenPom: 61; ESPN SOR: 26
Grand Canyon has quietly been one of the best mid-major programs over the past five seasons. The Lopes have staked their at-large claims on beating San Diego State at home in early December. GCU is the clear favorite in the WAC, so an at-large most likely won’t be necessary, but if they are piling up conference wins in impressive fashion, those metrics will continue to improve. Grand Canyon is definitely one of the more interesting teams to monitor, but they’re also a team that no team will want to see in their bracket.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
NET: 59; KenPom: 50; ESPN SOR: 146
May we present the most interesting case in the country? Saint Mary’s was projected to win the WCC over Gonzaga. Let that sink in. Maybe the Gaels put too much pressure on themselves, but at 8-6, Saint Mary’s is playing with fire with their at-large hopes. Their game against Kent State tomorrow feels like a must-win, not to mention winning at least one game against Gonzaga in league play. The metrics give the Gaels a chance, but they need to help themselves on the court.