Every weekend during the 2023-24 college basketball season, Dan Siegel will bring you his best bets!
Best Bet: UMass Lowell +3.5 at UMass
We were successful in fading the Minutemen Wednesday night against Towson, where the Tigers won comfortably as three-point underdogs. We believe that UMass Lowell may have a similar fate this afternoon.
In their matchup projections, Haslametrics indicates that the wrong team is favored while Torvik has the game at essentially a pick-em. That is always our starting point but let’s dive deeper into the matchup.
Sure, UMass has dominated four sub-200 ranked teams at home but that is the primary reason for their decent-looking statistical profile. The Minutemen struggled and eventually lost in their road matchup at Towson and their previous in-state home game against Harvard.
The place where UMass might struggle the most is behind the three-point line. UMass Lowell has allowed just a 25.2% three-point percentage this season, including holding Georgia Tech and Arizona State to a combined 8 for 31 (25.8%) from beyond the arc. Per Shot Quality, the Minutemen rank 351st in their quality of catch-and-shoot threes, 269th in off-the-dribble threes, and 308th in overall shotmaking.
Finally, we believe in the River Hawks and their process. They took down the local foe on the road last season, while clearly looking like the better team. They show out in big games, as we saw against two high-major opponents recently. This is another meaningful one for them.
Other Value Bets (2023-24: 48-40, 54.6%)
- Northern Kentucky +3.5 vs Akron
- USC Upstate +2 vs Kennesaw State
- Charlotte +15.5 at Duke
- Lindenwood +6.5 vs UMKC
- Green Bay -3.5 vs Western Illinois
Sharing betting advice is all about transparency and I am not afraid to admit that we are below our yearly goal of 55%. That said, the process remains largely profitable. Big Saturday ahead of us. Enjoy the games and let’s make some money!