The first iteration of the ACC-SEC challenge is almost here. With 14 matchups over the course of two days, the winner will have bragging rights over the eastern half of the country.
We’re picking each game at CBBReview with Dan Siegel, Sam Bass, and yours truly, George Bagwell.
Games
Mississippi State at Georgia Tech (Nov. 28 – 7 p.m.)
LSU at Syracuse (Nov. 28 – 7 p.m.)
South Carolina vs. Notre Dame (Nov. 28 – 7 p.m.)
Kentucky vs. Miami (FL) (Nov. 28 – 7:30 p.m.)
Missouri at Pitt (Nov. 28 – 7:30 p.m.)
Ole Miss vs. NC State (Nov. 28 – 9 p.m.)
Alabama vs. Clemson (Nov. 28 – 9:30 p.m.)
Tennessee at North Carolina (Nov. 29 – 7:15 p.m.)
Texas A&M at Virginia (Nov. 29 – 7:15 p.m.)
Florida at Wake Forest (Nov. 29 – 7:15 p.m.)
Arkansas vs. Duke (Nov. 29 – 9:15 p.m.)
Vanderbilt vs. Boston College (Nov. 29 – 9:15 p.m.)
Georgia at Florida State (Nov. 29 – 9:15 p.m.)
Auburn vs. Virginia Tech (Nov. 29 – 9:15 p.m.)
ACC-SEC Challenge Predictions
Mississippi State at Georgia Tech
Most of the matchups in the SEC-ACC challenge are properly-scheduled and near-tossups. This one, despite the location in Atlanta, isn’t likely to be as competitive, though anything can happen. The Bulldogs of Starkville are one of the best defensive units in America right now, even without Tolu Smith and KeShawn Murphy. While the Yellow Jackets have a trio of lengthy guards averaging 12+ PPG, (Miles Kelly, Dallan Coleman, and Kowacie Reeves) the team is not a great shooting unit, averaging 40.6% from the field overall and 29.6% from deep. Against a Mississippi State defense that’s allowing just 24.0% shooting from the perimeter, the Yellow Jackets don’t match up well.
Freshman Josh Hubbard is averaging 16.2 PPG off the bench for Mississippi State, while shooting 41.0% from deep. Dashawn Davis has improved as a shooter, at least in a small sample size, ranking 2nd on the team with a 36.8% mark from the perimeter. Mississippi State hasn’t had the easiest schedule so far, at least compared to other SEC teams, so they’re not going to get shell-shocked by playing an ACC school. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech just lost to Cincinnati by 35 points. The Bulldogs should win the first game of the ACC-SEC Challenge by double digits.
George’s pick: Miss. St.,68-49, Dan’s pick: Miss. St.,75-66, Sam’s pick: Miss. St.,78-62
LSU at Syracuse
This game should go down to the wire, with two very good players (Will Baker and Judah Mintz) showing out for their respective schools. Both teams have gritty wins under their belts, as LSU has defeated Wake Forest in OT, while the Orange came back from 24-down against Colgate to beat the perennial Patriot League champions. LSU’s biggest strengths have been perimeter defense, getting to the line, and, surprisingly, shooting from deep. The Tigers are top-80 in the nation so far in 3PT%, but only attempt 17.7 threes per game, in the bottom-40 of teams overall. Syracuse has struggled to shoot the ball, but so far has played a very in-control brand of basketball through 6 games, ranking top-100 nationally in BPG and SPG while limiting fouls (14.2 per game) and turnovers (11.0 per game).
LSU’s defense very well might make Judah Mintz’s night difficult, but the Orange have the clear advantage at the point guard position. The Tigers have shifted point roles since opening day, and are still searching for answers. Will Baker has been a stud, but Naheem McLeod down low (7’4!) could minimize his impact inside the paint. If this game was in Baton Rouge, LSU would likely end up as the victors. But Syracuse is more battle-tested, having just come back from Hawaii with games against Tennessee and Gonzaga under their belt. In the Carrier Dome, the Orange get it done.
George’s pick: Syracuse, 73-70, Dan’s pick: Syracuse, 72-69, Sam’s pick: LSU, 74-71
South Carolina vs. Notre Dame
Last year, both the Gamecocks and Fighting Irish struggled against conference opponents, going a combined 7-31. This year, one team looks much improved, while the other, in fair terms, is in the first year of a much-needed rebuild. South Carolina is 5-0 with two Power 6 victories and a solid de-facto road win over Grand Canyon. Notre Dame, under new coach Micah Shrewsberry, has lost to Western Carolina and Auburn by a combined 34 points, though they did pull out a win against Oklahoma State. South Carolina’s biggest strength so far has been perimeter shooting, as they rank 3rd in the SEC and 22nd nationally with a 39.4 3PT%. Jacobi Wright, Myles Stute, Ta’Lon Cooper, and Zachary Davis are all averaging better than 40% from deep on >1 3PA per game. Save for Davis, the Gamecock defense could improve on forcing turnovers, as they currently sit at 290th nationally with just 5.6 SPG. Notre Dame doesn’t force many, either (5.2 per game) but they’re led by freshman Markus Burton. If you haven’t heard of the Mishawka, Indiana, product, you’re not alone. He’s only played 5 collegiate games, but he’s averaging more than double the amount of PPG as the next closest player for the Irish at 18.0 PPG. In fact, he’s the only player on the roster averaging in double figures, and he’s scored 12+ in every game so far.
Burton will make an impact Tuesday in Columbia, but South Carolina has the talent, experience, and home-court advantage. The Gamecocks are an elite shooting team this year, especially from the perimeter, and Notre Dame doesn’t have the defensive prowess to block the ‘Cocks for 40 minutes. B.J. Mack, the Wofford transfer averaging 16.0 PPG and 5.2 RPG, will match up well against the Notre Dame frontcourt, and the Johnson-Cooper backcourt tandem can break the game open on offense. The Gamecocks should win comfortably in Columbia.
George’s pick: SC, 76-60, Dan’s pick: SC, 80-74, Sam’s pick: SC, 82-67
Kentucky vs. Miami (FL)
These teams, at least through the first couple weeks of the season, are quite similar. They both have great offenses but (several) questions on the defensive side of the ball. Kentucky has been paced by steady vets (Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell) and some very talented freshmen (Justin Edwards, Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, DJ Wagner) while Miami is led by a top-heavy combo of Final Four returnees (Nigel Pack, Bensley Joseph, Wooga Poplar, and Norchad Omier) and a key transfer (Matthew Cleveland via Florida State). The ‘Cats have been on fire from deep, connecting on 42.5% of their triples, while they’ve limited mistakes with just 8.2 turnovers per game and 12.8 fouls per game, both in the top 5 nationally. That’s impressive from any group of players, yet alone a rotation that’s mostly underclassmen. While they’re giving up 9+ threes per game, it’s mostly due to a high volume of shots taken by opponents and Saint Joseph’s making 15 threes at Rupp. Miami has a very thin rotation, as Jim Larranaga has been rolling with the aforementioned Hurricanes for most of the games so far. All 5 are averaging 27+ MPG, while the next-highest Hurricane (AJ Casey) is averaging just 13.0 per game. Believe it or not, they’re shooting the three-ball at a higher clip than Kentucky is. The Hurricanes are averaging 45.8% from deep, best in the nation. They’ve used the perimeter to beat all 5 opponents so far, including 3 Power 6 victories.
This game has the potential for both teams to break 80 easily, and maybe close to triple digits. That’s both a statement of confidence towards these two offenses and a noted vote of no confidence in either defense. The points will start coming and they won’t stop coming on Tuesday, especially from the perimeter. The difference, however, will be down low. Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso haven’t played this season, and they won’t be suiting up Tuesday. Miami, on the other hand, has Norchard Omier. Omier averaged 13.1 PPG and 10.0 RPG last year, and he’s improved in a small sample size this year, averaging 15.8 PPG and 9.2 RPG while collecting 2.4 SPG. He’s similar to Oscar Tshiebwe in terms of natural rebounding prowess, and it’s not a stretch to say he’s the best 6’7 rebounder in recent high-major history. The Bluefields, Nicaragua native will be the difference in Lexington, and Miami will leave Kentucky with a thrilling statement win.
George’s pick: Miami, 93-88, Dan’s pick: Kentucky, 90-88, Sam’s pick: Miami 81-80
Missouri at Pitt
Never doubt Dennis Gates, I know. That’s my #3 rule when it comes to college hoops prognosticating. But Mizzou has yet to put together 40 minutes straight of high-ceiling basketball. They’ve looked great at times and awful at others. Sean East II and Nick Honor have been great, but the rotation in general has struggled for stretches. And on the other side of this matchup, just a couple years after being firmly on the hot seat, Jeff Capel has Pitt contending. The Panthers are 5-1 with a tough loss to Florida but wins of 12+ points in their other 5 games. The trio of Blake Hinson, Ishmael Leggett, and Carlton Carrington are all averaging 15+ PPG. They’re tops in the nation with 48.5 RPG, which is a nightmare matchup for Missouri. The Tigers are only averaging 34.1 RPG, 278th nationally, and they aren’t likely to collect many second-chance points. Missouri is, however, really good with interior defense. The Tigers are averaging 7.1 BPG, which is elite and 2nd in the entirety of D-1. Pitt’s offense, though, lives mostly near the perimeter. The Panthers are shooting 30.7 threes per game, and their 3PAr of 46.3% is top-30 nationally, likely negating most of Missouri’s blocking prowess.
These two teams are close in terms of pure talent, and Missouri has the coaching advantage. But in terms of team strengths and weaknesses and style of play, Pitt is just a nightmare matchup for Mizzou. Their ability to collect on the glass and presence on the perimeter meshes well with the weaknesses of Missouri, and Missouri’s strengths won’t be as lethal or potent against this particular Pittsburgh team. Both of these teams are more talented than the metrics suggest, but Pitt, in all likelihood has enough advantages to win Tuesday.
George’s pick: Pitt, 67-59, Dan’s pick: Pitt, 70-67, Sam’s pick: Pitt, 64-57
Ole Miss vs. NC State
Ole Miss, at 5-0, for some odd reason, received votes in the AP poll this week. They’ve played a gauntlet of Alabama State, Eastern Washington, Detroit Mercy, Sam Houston State, and Temple and won by a combined total of just 26 points. Not a single team so far on their schedule is ranked in the top 140 in the latest KenPom rankings, and they’ve played the 32nd-easiest schedule in the country, per KenPom. NC State has a 4-1 record with a close win over Vanderbilt and a close loss against BYU, and they’re over 70 spots higher than Ole Miss in the latest KenPom rankings. Ole Miss, in their first 5 games, are 0-5 ATS, and they’re -2.5 point favorites tonight in Oxford. They shouldn’t be. NC State is only committing 8.8 turnovers per game, but they’re forcing them at a rate of 16.6 per game, a top-30 rate nationally. The Rebels haven’t been horrible in the backcourt even with the preseason waiver denial of Brandon Murray, but they’re still struggling in terms of consistently generating points and guarding opposing guards. Overall, if not for Vanderbilt, the Ole Miss defense would be far and away the worst defense in the SEC. NC State has a quartet of reliable offensive scorers in Casey Morsell, Jayden Taylor, D.J. Burns, and DJ Horne, and they scored 86 against a much better defensive team (BYU) in their last game.
On Tuesday night, home court advantage won’t matter to the Rebels. The Wolfpack are the more talented team by a solid margin, and they’ve been relatively battle-tested, at least compared to Ole Miss. If Ole Miss is going to win, it’ll need another career performance from Allen Flanigan, who’s been an absolute star so far this year, and Matthew Murrell, who has 12 career games of 20+ points. Ole Miss has a very thin rotation, with just 9 players recording an appearance so far and just 7 players averaging 10+ MPG this season. NC State is a much better team, and it will show.
George’s pick: NC St., 72-58, Dan’s pick: NC St., 73-72, Sam’s pick: NC St., 79-72
Alabama vs. Clemson
This is the largest point spread in Tuesday’s slate of games, with Alabama sitting at -9.5 point favorites. That’s not indicative of how these teams match up, however, as Clemson is 1 of just 2 remaining unbeatens in the ACC for good reason. The Tigers are led by PJ Hall, who is about as good as any big man in the ACC and he’ll be the best frontcourt player on the court on Tuesday on either team. He’s averaging 21.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.8 BPG. The Tigers are averaging 5.4 BPG on the year, good for a top-30 rank nationally. On the other side of the floor, Clemson has been excellent on the perimeter so far. The Tigers are shooting 39.7% from deep, and Alabama just allowed Ohio State to shoot 55.6% from the perimeter in Destin last week. That’s not a good look for a defense that lost several key components from last year’s unit. While Alabama has a relatively elite offense, bouncing back with 99 points against Oregon, they also gave up 91 in that game. Is Alabama going to have to score 80+ to win any game against an above-average offense?
On the flip side, the Tide have some special players. Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada are one of the best backcourt combos in the conference, and Grant Nelson has looked pretty good in a small sample size. They’re shooting the three at a 43.0% clip, 3rd-best in the country. They’re getting to the line often, as the Tide have drawn the most fouls per game in D-1 with 23.7. Clemson will have to play disciplined on offense Tuesday night if they want to win against the Tide. They certainly have the ability to pull out the win, which many in the media aren’t predicting. Alabama should win, especially at home, but this game will be much closer than expected.
George’s pick: Bama, 88-84, Dan’s pick: Alabama, 80-77, Sam’s pick: Alabama 78-74
Tennessee at North Carolina
Kicking off Wednesday’s slate is a top-25 matchup between the Vols of Tennessee and the Tar Heels of UNC. Tennessee is coming off a 1-2 showing in Hawaii, while North Carolina went 2-1 in The Bahamas. Both teams have shown moments of elite basketball while struggling at times. For Tennessee, the performances of Santiago Vescovi and Zakai Zeigler are concerning. Zeigler clearly isn’t at 100% after coming back from a torn ACL, while Vescovi’s performance is more odd rather than having a concrete reason. He’s only averaging 8.8 PPG after averaging 12.5 last year, and his eFG% has slipped below 50% for the first time since his freshman year. Dalton Knecht and Jordan Gainey have been picking up the slack on offense, but this team is still shooting just 46.0% from inside the arc and 40.7% overall. They’ll need to find some reliable, consistent, offense if they want to knock off UNC in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are 5-1 overall with solid wins over Arkansas and Northern Iowa. Armando Bacot (he’s still in college!) is averaging a double-double, while RJ Davis leads the team with 18.2 PPG. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram is the glue guy in a very Brady Manek sense for this team, who looks much improved after a dreadful year last season compared to expectations.
North Carolina’s x-factor, besides playing at home, is drawing fouls. That’s good news for the Tar Heels, as Tennessee is averaging 19.2 fouls per game. UNC will have to find a way to stop the NoCo transfer Dalton Knecht, who’s been on fire, but if they can manage that, they’ve got a good chance of winning, even against this elite Tennessee defense. Defense is one thing that typically travels well, yes, but UNC will have enough in the tank.
George’s pick: UNC, 73-67, Dan’s pick: Tennessee, 69-63, Sam’s pick: UNC, 64-60
Texas A&M at Virginia
The health of Henry Coleman III and Tyrece Radford is paramount for this game. They missed the Aggies’ game against Iowa State, but Solomon Washington and the rest of the crew still managed to come back from a 21-point deficit and win, even on an off-day for Wade Taylor IV. Assuming Coleman III and Radford are healthy, the Aggies should win. Even if they aren’t, the Aggies still might. That’s not a shot at Virginia, but rather a kind word for Texas A&M. The Aggies don’t turn the ball over, crash the offensive glass, and get to the line. That’s a recipe for wins. However, there’s one big thing that might impact the Aggies’ fortunes, besides the health of the roster. They’re not great at shooting, and they’re playing a Tony Bennett defense. That’s usually not a fantastic combination. Virginia hasn’t been great on offense, though, losing to Wisconsin 41-65 and beating West Virginia 56-54. The Cavaliers aren’t particularly efficient inside the arc at just 48.8%, but they limit turnovers in the half-court set and provide excellent, elite really, interior defense. If there’s one team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone on a given day, it’s Virginia. Some say that’s because of the slow-paced offense, but there’s no real data to back up the suggestion that it produces volatile results.
In a road environment such as Charlottesville, any offense has the potential to struggle, especially one with the shooting woes of Texas A&M. From a talent perspective, however, assuming Radford and Coleman III are back to team up with Wade Taylor IV, (who just dropped 35 on FAU, who in turn beat Virginia’s rival by 34) the Aggies have the advantage. Only a few point guards can dice up the Virginia d, and Taylor IV is one of them. On the other side of the ball, the Aggie defense should be able to do enough to stop Virginia from scoring 60 points.
George’s pick: A&M, 64-50, Dan’s pick: Virginia, 60-59, Sam’s pick: A&M, 61-54
Florida at Wake Forest
Florida has looked really good on offense, while struggling at times on defense. Wake Forest, in the same vein, has had no trouble scoring points but has given up 75+ points in 4 of 6 games so far. This should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, and a very fun game to watch. Hunter Sallis, Cam Hildreth, and Kevin Miller vs. the guard quartet of Riley Kugel, Zyon Pullin, Walter Clayton Jr., and Will Richard? Sign me all the way up. Florida has proven adept at crashing the boards and drawing fouls, sometimes at the same time. Wake Forest doesn’t crash the offensive glass often, but they’re shooting 82.6% from the line, so Florida has to be careful not to foul. Cameron Hildreth is 21-22 from the line this year, while Kevin Miller is 24-27.
Even though neither team’s defense is particularly impressive, Florida’s is slightly better, and their pretty-good offense is slightly better than Wake Forest’s pretty good offense. The game might come down to who gets to 80 points first, and that seemed to be the modus operandi for all 3 of the game picks. Both of these teams have future NBA players on their rosters, maybe multiple on each. (From a scout’s perspective, I really enjoy watching Hunter Sallis.) Forbes vs. Golden, Wednesday night. Be there (7:15, ESPNU) or be square.
George’s pick: Florida, 86-78, Dan’s pick: Florida, 82-74, Sam’s pick: Florida, 84-62
Arkansas vs. Duke
This game is in Fayetteville, which, judging by early returns, is the only reason Arkansas has a chance. Duke has the more talented roster and has beaten more talented teams. For whatever reason, Arkansas’s abundance of guards hasn’t resulted in on-court improvement. Khalif Battle and Tramon Mark have been great, for sure. But Battle isn’t being given a starting spot, again, for whatever reason. (He’s averaging 15.0 PPG off the bench.) And Mark is out for at least a few games with a scary back injury. What El Ellis hasn’t been particularly impressive, and Davonte Davis did his best Tony Snell impression with 0 points, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 0 shots, 1 rebound, and 3 fouls in 23 whole minutes. Someone has to step up, and if freshman Layden Blocker is the answer, then he’s the answer. Not only does Arkansas have to make these adjustments, but they have to make them against a top-10 opponent. Duke has already beaten Michigan State and took a close loss to an elite Arizona team. The core of Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach, and Mark Mitchell is very good, and currently playing at a much higher level than the Arkansas starting 5. The Blue Devils aren’t committing many turnovers, and they’re super efficient inside the arc. Arkansas will have to play their best ball if they want to win.
The chances of that happening, however, are low, especially with Tramon Mark likely on the sidelines. Duke is, currently, a tier or two above the Razorbacks, and they shouldn’t have loads of trouble against the Arkansas defense, while Arkansas will need to find alternate routes of scoring if they want a chance. I just don’t see that happening, and Duke should notch a win for the ACC.
George’s pick: Duke, 78-65, Dan’s pick: Duke, 70-65, Sam’s pick: Duke, 79-64
Vanderbilt vs. Boston College
The people in charge of scheduling deserve a pat on the back for this one. This is the perfect matchup for both of these teams. Vanderbilt is coming off a tough weekend in Vegas, but they’re hoping for whatever happened there to stay in the city of sin, while Boston College went an unfortunate 0-2 in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic against Colorado State and Loyola Chicago. The ‘Dores are led by Tyrin Lawrence and Ezra Manjon, but Colin Smith and Evan Taylor have also been quite productive, as has Notre Dame transfer Ven-Allen Lubin down low. The ‘Dores are shooting at a clip of 47.7 eFG% though, tied with The Citadel (coached by former Stackhouse assistant Ed Conroy) and Sam Houston State (almost beat Ole Miss) for 277th nationally. That’s not good. Boston College is led by the big man in the post, Quinten Post, aptly named. The Eagles, in Earl Grant’s 3rd year, have beaten The Citadel, (still coached by former Stackhouse assistant Ed Conroy) Fairfield, Richmond, and Harvard. Not only is Post averaging 20.8 PPG, but he’s also shooting 90.9% from the line. There’s no hack-a-Shaq in play here. The rest of the Eagles need someone to step up, and that could be Claudell Harris, the Charleston Southern (roughly 20 minutes away from The Citadel, who, again, are coached by former Stackhouse assistant Ed Conroy. Big Ed Conroy fan here.) transfer who’s averaging 12.0 PPG. Jaeden Zackery has been excellent as a perimeter defender.
This game should be highly competitive in terms of talent comparison, and I’d be shocked if the winning margin was greater than 10 points. Boston College will bring their A-game to Nashville just like Zach Bryan, (had to throw in a little Zach Bryan reference for the culture) but Vanderbilt is finally looking to be some semblance of healthy, which is great news. It’s still November, so neither school should panic with a loss, but a win could do wonders for momentum.
George’s pick: Vanderbilt, 71-68, Dan’s pick: BC, 66-56, Sam’s pick: BC, 61-52
Georgia at Florida State
Leonard Hamilton and Mike White met yearly while White was still the head man in Gainesville. Now, they’ll get another chance to run it back, with Georgia coming to Tallahassee. Florida State has improved tenfold since a dreadful first half against Florida, beating UNLV and Colorado to win the Sunshine Slam. The Seminoles are sitting at 71st in the latest KenPom rankings, while Georgia is at 82nd. Even with Silas Demary Jr. running point and playing extremely smart basketball from the 1, the Bulldogs have occasionally run into trouble scoring. Their defense has been (mostly) consistently good, which is similar to how Florida State’s season has gone so far. Both team fanbases aren’t satisfied with how the season has transpired, but there hasn’t been too much complaining, either. It’s been about as expected in Athens and Tallahassee, but the football teams are a combined 24-0 so there really isn’t any room to complain about basketball.
Georgia can win this game if they stop Jamir Watkins and Darin Green from getting to the basket. Florida State can win this game if they play their vaunted physical brand of defense without fouling or letting Georgia find open passing lanes. This might be the game that wins the challenge for the ACC or wins it for the SEC. It’s pivotal, and either team could take home the victory. I’m putting my money on Mike White, (as I do) but this game really could go either way.
George’s pick: Georgia, 67-59, Dan’s pick: FSU, 71-70, Sam’s pick: Georgia, 72-69
Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
Kudos to Auburn for figuring out their backcourt situation after last season’s shooting woes. 5-star Aden Holloway and FIU transfer Denver Jones are both shooting better than 40% from deep, which was a sore spot the past few years in Auburn. Johni Broome is a force down low for the Tigers, like always, and he’s averaging 15.4 PPG and 7.6 RPG. Mike Young’s group for Virginia Tech is no easy opponent, though. The Hokies may have gotten walloped by FAU, but they’re still quite good. Their biggest strength is making their trips to the line worth it. The Hokies are shooting 81.8% from the line, 8th in the country. Auburn, on the other hand, still hasn’t broken out of their habit of fouling their opponent at a maddening rate. The Tigers are averaging 20.6 fouls per game, a mark that puts them in the bottom-40 of programs nationwide. It’s possible to see a scenario in which Lynn Kidd, Hunter Cattoor, and Sean Pedulla draw fouls consistently against Auburn and rack up the free points from the stripe, shocking the Auburn crowd and giving them their first home loss this year.
Ultimately, however, Auburn’s home-court advantage is one of the more advantageous environments in college basketball, and I’d feel a lot better about picking Virginia Tech if this game were in Virginia. The Hokies are allowing opponents to shoot 36.2% from deep, not a great number if they want to stop Auburn’s perimeter weapons. (That still feels odd to type.) Auburn, as long as they don’t commit upwards of 24 fouls, should win on Wednesday to clinch the challenge for the SEC.
George’s pick: Auburn 80-72, Dan’s pick: Auburn 75-73, Sam’s pick: Auburn 68-66
Overall:
George’s picks: SEC wins 8-6, Dan’s picks: Tie, 7-7, Sam’s picks: SEC wins 8-6