Every weekend during the 2023-24 college basketball season, Dan Siegel will bring you his best bets!
Best Bet: Long Beach State +15 at Michigan
While Haslmetrics indicates that the line is relatively accurate, Torvik gives significant value towards Long Beach State, projecting that the spread should be 11 or 11.5 points. Beyond these two models though, I would like to fade Michigan at this point of the year.
Shot Quality indicates that the Wolverines have been one of the most over-performing teams in the country to this point. While they are currently 3-0, their SQ expected win percentage is just 63%. This is largely due to the Saint John’s game where based on the shots they took, they should have actually lost the game that they won by 16! Additionally, the blowout victories over UNC Asheville and Youngstown State should have been closer.
Of course, this model will be more accurate as the season progresses but I am not going out on a limb by saying that Michigan’s 41% three-point percentage is completely unsustainable. We went into the year concerned that the Wolverines were full of low-efficiency shooters and a three-game sample is not enough to override that.
You may be asking…why Long Beach State? Well, the 49ers have proven that they can hang with the big boys. In their last three games against notable competition, they have covered the spread each time. Dating back to last season, this includes a 10-point loss to USC, a 12-point loss to San Diego State, and a win over DePaul (technically in the Big East). The moment will certainly not be too for former Washington Huskie, Marcus Tsohonis.
Other Value Bets (2023-24: 21-16, 56.8%)
- Coppin State +13 at Miami OH
- South Carolina -4.5 vs DePaul
- San Diego -14.5 vs Le Moyne
- Portland St +4.5 at Cal Baptist
- Mercer +29.5 at Alabama
Last week’s Friday bets went a modest 3-3 but we have certainly been profitable overall. Remember to be conscious of your unit size and try not to parlay these, as tempting as it may be. Enjoy the games and let’s make some money!