Every weekend during the 2023-24 college basketball season, Dan Siegel will bring you his best bets!
Best Bet: Ohio State -1.5 vs Texas A&M
For starters, Aggies senior center Julius Marble will once again not be playing tonight. This leaves Texas A&M relatively undersized, which can be a schematic problem, based on the physical style Buzz Williams likes to play.
Additionally, the general strategy to fade the Aggies in the preseason is more than plausible. In 2022-23, we saw a trend where Texas A&M struggled against non-conference teams that can particularly take advantage of open threes, but this strategy was more effective in SEC play. Maybe, the Buckeyes are not quite the elite three-point shooting team that they were last year, but their 7-for-25 performance against Oakland in the season opener should not be indicative of what is to come.
Finally, we think Vegas is underestimating Ohio State due to their poor on-paper performances last season. Shot Quality supports this theory, indicating that the Buckeyes had the worst record luck in the Big Ten last year, and they are due for positive regression. Even in their close win against Oakland, the Golden Grizzlies were expected to score seven fewer points on three-pointers, per the SQ model.
Other Value Bets (2023-24: 7-5, 58.3%)
- St. Joseph’s -6.5 vs. Penn
- Hofstra -1.5 vs. Princeton
- Tennessee Tech +12.5 at Murray State
- Samford +5.5 at VCU
- Georgia -2.5 vs. Wake Forest
I would highly recommend doing these bets individually, rather than parlaying them. As always, stay conscious of your unit size. Enjoy the games and let’s make some money!!