Leaky Black, North Carolina Tar Heels, ACC Basketball

Dan Siegel and Jason Draven give their pregame betting picks for the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils.


Game Spread: Duke -3.5

Dan’s Pick: Duke

Torvik and Haslametrics both like Duke to win this game by at least 4.5. I agree with this sentiment. Duke defends the rim well and will force North Carolina to take tough, outside shots on the road.

Jason’s Pick: North Carolina

Taking the more experienced coach. This is tough since Duke is undefeated at home this year. North Carolina needs this win to help secure an NCAA Tournament bid.

Total: Over/Under 144

Dan’s Pick: Over

In a rivalry setting, there will be a little more offense than each team is accustomed to. Most models also agree that the total will be higher.

Jason’s Pick: Over

The game is always competitive and I think guard play forces higher scoring.

Duke’s Kyle Filipowski Points: Over/Under 16.5

Dan’s Pick: Under

This is largely based on who is matched up with him. I am banking on the fact that it will be Leaky Black, who is a Naismith Defensive Player of the Year finalist for a reason. I expect him to hold Filipowski under his season average of 15.8.

Jason’s Pick: Under

This is a great line, but I think that the team and rivalry will focus on keeping him in check. I would expect that they try to get him in foul trouble early and try to sideline him. He also has only been over 16.5 in 9 of the Blue Devils’ 22 games.

North Carolina’s Caleb Love Three-Pointers: Over/Under 2.5

Dan’s Pick: Over

Love is back to being an inefficient shooter this year but I like him to get to three three-pointers made simply due to the volume of shots that could be taken. Duke ranks above the 70th percentile in terms of share of three-point shots taken against them and Love isn’t afraid to let it loose.

Jason’s Pick: Under

Love has only made three three-pointers twice in the seven times he’s played against Duke: in his first game and the last time they played in the ACC Tournament. Both of those times, he had to take 5+ attempts.