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Indiana Basketball: NCAA Tournament Chances

Grace Jeffer
Empty Assembly Hall, Indiana basketball arena (Photo credit: CBB Review)

Empty Assembly Hall, Indiana basketball arena (Photo credit: CBB Review)

As Indiana Basketball continues its season into the new year, it needs to lock in during January to keep NCAA Tournament dreams alive.

The Hoosiers’ last time they were invited to the dance was in 2023. However, the team advanced only to the second round, beating Kent State in the round of 64 before falling to the Miami Hurricanes.

In both 2023-24 and 2024-25, Indiana didn’t receive a bid. Last season, the Hoosiers were the second team out, following West Virginia. Even so, there was much speculation about UNC’s legitimacy in making the tournament over these two teams, but the past is in the past.

With 18 games left on the schedule for Indiana basketball, there is plenty of time for this team to make its case as a tournament team. There are some essential wins the Hoosiers need on their resume to prove this.

Top-tier games:

January will essentially be the deciding month for Indiana basketball. There are currently five ranked teams on their January schedule: the teams listed above and the #25 Iowa Hawkeyes. However, Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan, and Purdue, at the top of the Big Ten Conference standings, are the hot commodities so far this season.

To be in good standing for a bid to the NCAA Tournament, Indiana basketball needs to capitalize on at least three of these key matchups. Winning two will likely mean the other potential bubble teams will determine Indiana’s fate. If the Hoosiers can only win 1 of these, they will likely miss the dance for the third year in a row.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are having the best start to their season in history. Their statement win against previously ranked No. 13 Illinois marked the Cornhuskers’ first 11-0 start in program history. The team has found success through its bench depth and defensive abilities, protecting leads in tight games.

Senior forward Rienk Mast is a key inside player for Nebraska, as he is both the team’s leading scorer (avg. 17 PPG) and rebounder (~6-7 RPG). Junior guard Pryce Sandfort is also a key contributor on offense; most of his action comes from the wing and outside the three-point line (avg. 16 PPG). Nebraska continued its impressive season with a 58-56 upset victory at home over Michigan State. This indeed turns heads in the tournament discussion, as it should for a quality win like this.

With both Indiana and Nebraska having high-scoring offenses, IU will need to win on the glass and limit Nebraska’s second-chance points. Considering that the Hoosiers have only one crack at the Cornhuskers, this is an imperative game for Indiana Basketball that should be circled in red.

Indiana first plays No. 9 Michigan State in East Lansing on Jan. 13, and later hosts them in Bloomington on Mar. 1. The Spartans have a well- rounded offense with four players averaging double figures (Jaxon Kohler ~13.7 PPG, Coen Carr ~12.2 PPG, Jeremy Fears Jr. ~11.5 PPG, Carson Cooper ~ 10.4 PPG).

In their last few games, however, their defense has been somewhat shaky on the road. MSU’s early road win against the Kentucky Wildcats put them in the conversation early, a win that Indiana couldn’t collect this season. The Spartans, however, suffered their second loss of the season, falling on the road to Nebraska. With the Cornhuskers being such an impressive team this season, it isn’t detrimental to Michigan State. As the higher seed, however, many expected them to come out on top.

Even if Indiana wins just one of these two games against Head coach Tom Izzo and the Spartans, it will strengthen their resume. Thinking realistically, if Indiana is going to win a select number of the top-tier games listed above, it would be better for the Hoosiers to win once against Michigan State if they can secure a victory against Michigan or Purdue. Also, Indiana’s 72-60 loss to Kentucky wouldn’t look as bad with a win over Michigan State.

Now, to the Michigan Wolverines. This team has been on fire this season, recording 7 games with over 100 points so far. The offense is humming week after week. Since Nov. 19, the Wolverines have averaged 34.3-point victories. In their recent matchup against McNeese, Michigan Basketball broke the Big Ten record for most wins by 40+ points in a single season, and it is only the beginning of January. This team is currently a favorite to win the whole tournament this year.

Yaxel Lendeborg is a name to remember for this upcoming matchup. The senior forward is the leading scorer for Michigan, averaging 15.7 PPG. This team doesn’t just rely on key players to put up these offensive totals – they share the ball and find looks from all over the court. Also averaging double digits are Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara, Trey McKenney, and Roddy Gayle Jr.

A win over this dominant Michigan team would do wonders for anyone’s resume, especially Indiana basketball, which hasn’t yet faced this caliber of team. For the Hoosiers to have a chance in this game, they need to stay strong on transition opportunities, as this is a key factor in the Wolverines’ success. An Indiana win in Ann Arbor would undoubtedly keep them in the Tournament conversation.

The final top-tier matchup: No. 5 Purdue vs. Indiana. The teams first play in Bloomington on Jan. 27 and meet again at Mackey Arena on Feb. 20. This historic rivalry, dating back to 1901, always gets people talking, especially since anything can happen in a rivalry game.

This was displayed last season when the unranked Hoosiers beat the No. 13 Boilermakers 73-58 at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Purdue entered the season as the No. 1 team; however, it has dropped only slightly to No. 5 due to other teams’ performances and its 81-58 loss to No. 3 Iowa State.

Senior guard Braden Smith continues to live up to his expectations of being one of the top players in college basketball. He is a key facilitator who also leads the team in both assists and steals. Another familiar name in basketball, and a key offensive player, is senior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn. He averages 14 PPG and 10.2 RPG, the highest among the Boilermakers so far. His physicality is another reason why he continues to benefit Purdue. Similar to the teams above, Purdue’s bench has had a significant impact on the games so far. Also, Purdue Head coach Matt Painter has maintained the team’s consistency and strong execution.

A key factor in these games between the Hoosiers and Boilermakers will be mental toughness. Purdue’s loss to Iowa State essentially came from its frustration in the 2nd half. Their 4-point halftime deficit widened to 27 points as they were outplayed 46-27 in the 2nd half. The Cyclones’ consistent offense frazzled the Boilermakers. This could be Indiana’s key.

With their high-scoring offense led by Lamar Wilkerson, Tucker DeVries, and Tayton Conerway, along with a strong supporting cast of Reed Bailey, Sam Alexis, and recently Nick Dorn, the game will be determined by the offensive tempo of either team. A W in the column against Purdue will set them up nicely. Similar to their matchups against Michigan State, they really only need to pull off one of the two wins against Purdue, as long as they can find a way to sneak in a win against another ranked team.

Middle-tier games:

While these four opponents may not be in the “upper echelon” of college basketball at the moment, they are noteworthy games for Indiana Basketball’s sake, and here’s why:

The Hoosiers need to see at least two wins between these four games, as well as at least one of these coming from out west. These are crucial matchups because they are comparable to Indiana Basketball. When it comes down to the bubble teams in March, the Hoosiers need wins over these teams, with whom they may well be fighting for a spot in the Tournament.

First, the Iowa Hawkeyes currently rank No. 25. This is relevant as they are only one spot ahead of the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Conference standings. Indiana has already ranked in the top 25 this season. Their highest ranking was No. 22 after a 7-0 start. Since their poor loss to Minnesota, however, they haven’t been able to find the “flow” they once had… yet. Iowa has shown grit so far this season. Their two losses have come against excellent teams: Michigan State and Iowa State. Even in their game against the Cyclones, they only lost by 4 points, 66-62.

Now, the trip out west to UCLA and USC. UCLA currently ranks 5th in the Big Ten after a very close 69-65 loss in November to No. 1 Arizona. Despite this solid conference ranking, UCLA has struggled against tougher opponents, including losses to Cal and Gonzaga. They have played only Oregon and Washington in Big Ten play and remain undefeated in that regard. To get a better feel for the team overall, their real test will be against No. 25 Iowa.

Before USC’s 96-66 loss to Michigan, they ranked 9th in the Big Ten and No. 24 in the AP poll. This is due to their 84-76 loss to Washington; however, it is their only loss of the season. Losing to No. 2 Michigan is a pattern for every team that has been in their path this season, so this loss doesn’t completely diminish the fact that USC is still an essential game on Indiana’s schedule, whether they are ranked or not.

While neither UCLA nor USC is currently super strong, Indiana must return to Bloomington with at least one win. Which team exactly? It shouldn’t matter. Two back-to-back losses out west wouldn’t be a good look for the Hoosiers, especially since this trip begins in February basketball.

The No. 20 Fighting Illini find themselves at the 6th spot in the conference, right under the Bruins. They put up a fight against No. 4 UConn but lost 74-61. Following this performance, Illinois picked up an impressive road win over No. 19 Tennessee. In the conference, Illinois left Columbus with a win over Ohio State. The Fighting Illini recorded their most recent loss to Nebraska in a devastatingly close 83-80 final. An Indiana win over currently ranked Illinois would strengthen their resume, especially given the teams Illinois has kept up with.

Up next for Indiana Basketball: Washington at Indiana, Jan. 4 at 5 p.m.

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