Dayton basketball loses their superstar DaRon Holmes but should have the talent to make back-to-back tournament appearances.
The tradition continues! CBB Review is again ranking the top 100 teams heading into the new college basketball season. Each day, we will reveal the next team until we reach the team slotted at number one. Up next: Dayton basketball.
Dayton fans had themselves a year, winning 25 games and winning a tournament game for the first time since 2015. They did it in dramatic fashion as well, coming back from down 17 with 7:15 to go. They were led by DaRon Holmes, a second team All-American, becoming the second player to earn that honor for Dayton basketball since 1979.
Dayton fans prayed that Holmes, who had another year of eligibility, would come back to the Flyers, but he ultimately decided to enter the draft. Koby Brea, who shot 50% from three last year, also decided to move on, transferring to Kentucky. Kobe Elvis averaged just under 10 a game, but will look to improve that at DePaul. After that, you see a lot of returning faces.
Nate Santos returns, and is projected to be the leader of this team. They also return both Javon Bennett and Malachi Smith. Smith missed the entire season with an injury, but Dayton and A10 fans know how important he is when he’s healthy. Having both of these high-level guards will do wonders for this team.
Then, there’s the two transfers expecting to replace Brea and Holmes, Posh Alexander and Zed Key. Posh was a great pickup from Butler and is really well-balanced on the court. Zed Key was expected to take a huge leap at Ohio State, but never did so. Still, he’s a very productive big man who will give A10 opponents a lot of trouble.
Dayton really bulked up the nonconference schedule. They know that the A10 is at best a two-bid league, and they don’t want to put their resume to chance come Selection Sunday. If Dayton can win four of those notable non-conference games and win the A10 regular season without any Q3 or Q4 losses, they should be guaranteed a bid.
Anthony Grant was a bit on the hot seat after no tournament appearances during his time with Dayton (although they would have been a top 2 seed had there been a tournament in 2020). Dayton would love to be a continual tournament team, and this team has enough talent to make that dream come true.
Click here to learn more about our preseason top 100 teams heading into the 2024-25 college basketball season.
Head coach: Anthony Grant (8th season at Dayton, 17th season overall)
2023-24 record: 25-8 (14-4)
2024 postseason finish: NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Exit
Notable departures:
- DaRon Holmes (20.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.6 APG)
- Koby Brea (11.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.2 APG)
- Kobe Elvis (9.4 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2.4 RPG)
Notable non-conference games:
- vs. Xavier (Oct. 20)
- vs. Northwestern (Nov. 9)
- vs. North Carolina (Nov. 25)
- Maui Invitational (Nov. 26- 27)
- vs. Marquette (Dec. 14)
- vs. UNLV (Dec. 17)
- vs. Cincinnati (Dec.20)
Projected Rotation
PG: Malachi Smith (6-0, 175, Sr.)
*Missed nearly all of 2023-24 season*
2022-23 stats: 7.7 PPG, 5.6 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 38.3 3P%, 70.0 FT%
SG: Posh Alexander (6-0, 205, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 11.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 SPG (Butler)
SF: Enoch Cheeks (6-3, 195, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 8.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG
PF: Nate Santos (6-7, 215, Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 11.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 APG, 41.8 3P%
C: Zed Key (6-8, 220, Gr.-Sr.)
2023-24 stats: 6.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 0.5 APG, 50.9 FG%, 71.0 FT% (Ohio State)
6: Javon Bennett (5-10, 160, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 8.4 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 82.0 FT%
7: Marvel Allen (6-4, 205, Rs.-Fr.)
247Sports Composite #174 ranked recruit (2023)
8: Jacob Conner (6-10, 205, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 6.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.1 SPG (Marshall)
9: Hamad Mousa (6-8, 190, Fr.)
NBA Global Academy in Canberra, Australia
10: Isaac Jack (6-11, 250, Jr.)
2023-24 stats: 3.1 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.2 APG, 71.7 FG%
Dayton Basketball team MVP: Nate Santos
Santos is the only returning double-digit scorer, and he will undoubtedly lead the way this year. He shoots the ball really well from deep, finishing at 41.8%, and with Holmes gone, he could average close to 8 rebounds a game. With Zed Key down low, they’ll need Santos to space the floor, and he’ll be able to do just that.
Dayton Basketball make-or-break player: Zed Key
You can’t state it enough: losing Daron Holmes is a huge deal. In fact, besides Zach Edey, you can argue this is the biggest loss for a team in college basketball. They went to the portal and grabbed Zed Key to try to replace the big man. Key went from a starter to a bench player at Ohio State, but going from the Big Ten to A10 could really benefit him.
He’ll be bigger than his opponent, and he has really great footwork down low. They don’t need 15 points a game from him, but if he can average more than he did last year and hold his own on defense, that will allow the rest of the team to shine and ensure they are the best team in the conference.
Key analytic: Three-point percentage
Eight of the top nine teams that finished atop the three point percentage in the country made the tournament. So obviously, if you shoot the ball well from deep, that leads to overall success. Dayton finished third, at 39.9%.
Losing Brea, Holmes, and Elvis, who all shot over 37% will be huge, but they return Santos and Smith, who both shot over 38%. Expect the percentage to go down, but they should still be able to shoot it well, which leads to a successful season for Dayton basketball.
Dayton Basketball 2024-25 projections
Projected conference finish: 1st in the Atlantic 10
Projected postseason ceiling: NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Exit