CBB Review prepares you for every conference tournament leading up to Selection Sunday on Mar. 17. Up next: The Sun Belt Tournament.
The Sun Belt has been on the national radar since opening day after James Madison took down Michigan State in Lansing. But it’s not just the Dukes that have made waves. App State took down Auburn in Boone and all in all, the Sun Belt Tournament has a pair of teams that can break some brackets once mid-March rolls around, but plenty more that have the opportunity to play spoiler in Pensacola.
2024 Sun Belt Conference Awards
Player of the Year: Terrence Edwards, James Madison
Freshman of the Year: Jacob Meyer, Coastal Carolina
Transfer of the Year: Tre’Von Spillers, App State
Coach of the Year: Dustin Kerns, App State
First Team:
- G: Christyon Eugene, Troy (15.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.2 APG, 43.2 3P%)
- G: Terrence Edwards, James Madison (17.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.3 APG)
- G: Austin Crowley, Southern Miss (16.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.2 SPG)
- F: Tre’Von Spillers, App State (13.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 0.5 APG, 1.4 BPG)
- F: T.J Bickerstaff, James Madison (13.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.1 SPG)
Second Team:
- G: Tyren Moore, Georgia Southern (16.3 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.8 RPG, 40.7 3P%)
- G: Caleb Fields, Arkansas State (12.1 PPG, 5.8 APG, 2.8 RPG)
- F: Kobe Julien, UL-Lafayette (17.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 APG, 83.1 FT%)
- F: Nate Martin, Marshall (10.8 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.4 BPG)
- F: Ginika Ojiako, Coastal Carolina (12.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.0 BPG)
Sun Belt Tournament Simulation
First Round – Tues., Mar. 5
12. UL-Monroe (11-18, 6-12) vs. 13. Coastal Carolina (8-21, 5-13) – 6 p.m. on ESPN+
UL-Monroe’s duo of Nika Metskhvarishvili and Tyreke Locure is one of the best in the conference, despite the Warhawks’ record. Monroe narrowly defeated the Chants earlier this season at home in the lone meeting. Coastal’s freshman Jacob Meyer has been playing at a high level, but this game could come down to one factor: motivation. UL-Monroe still has a head coach. Coastal does not.
George’s pick: 12. UL-Monroe
11. Texas State (13-18, 7-11) vs. 14. Old Dominion (7-24, 3-15) – 8:30 p.m. on ESPN+
Over ODU’s past 9 games, they are just 1-8. Texas State, on the other hand, is 6-3 with wins over App State and Troy. These are two programs trending in two very different short-term directions, and the Bobcats should have a heavy advantage. (It should be noted, however, that these two teams didn’t meet in the regular season. Thanks, Sun Belt scheduling gurus.)
George’s pick: 11. Texas State
Second Round – Thurs., Mar. 7
8. South Alabama (16-15, 8-10) vs. 9. Georgia Southern (8-23, 8-10) – 12:30 p.m. on ESPN+
The non-con portion of the schedule went quite different for these two schools (USA went 8-5, GSU went a winless 0-13), but they were pretty equal during Sun Belt games. The Jaguars won the lone matchup at home this year, and have gone 6-2 in their past 8 games. But Georgia Southern’s offense has put up 80+ points in 5 of their past 7 games to close out the season, and the Jaguars don’t have a great defense. The Eagles have a solid chance to win the rematch this time around on a neutral court.
George’s pick: 9. Georgia Southern
5. UL-Lafayette (18-13, 10-8) vs. 12. UL-Monroe – 3 p.m. on ESPN+
The Cajuns went dancing last year, and still have a few key pieces from that squad, including point guard Themus Fulks, who’s 3rd in the conference with 4.4 APG. The metrics highly favor the Cajuns over the Warhawks in this battle of the boot, with KenPom giving Lafayette (136th) a heavy advantage over their in-state rivals Monroe (296th). Kobe Julien and crew should make quick work in the second game of the Thursday slate.
George’s pick: 5. UL-Lafayette
6. Southern Miss (16-15, 9-9) vs. 11. Texas State – 6 p.m. on ESPN+
Andre Curbelo in March is a beautiful sight. How many games we get from Curbelo is another question, as Texas State is certainly no pushover. The season series was split 1-1, with the home team winning each time. Austin Crowley has been excellent for the Golden Eagles, and both teams specialize on the defensive side of the ball. Ultimately, the Bobcats are the hotter team right now, and they’ve got the advantage. Anything more than a 6-point margin of victory for either team would be surprising, though.
George’s pick: 11. Texas State
7. Georgia State (14-16, 8-10) vs. 10. Marshall (12-19, 7-11) – 8:30 p.m. on ESPN+
The most recent game played for both teams was against each other, with Georgia State defeating Marshall by a three-point margin, 82-79, on Friday. Lucas Taylor dropped 26 to lead both teams, but Nate Martin recorded a double-double for the Thundering Herd. This is a true toss-up, especially considering Marshall beat State earlier this season in Huntington. We’ll side with the most recent victors in this one.
Mat’s pick: 7. Georgia State
Quarterfinals – Sat., Mar. 9
1. App State (26-5, 16-2) vs. 9. Georgia Southern – 12:30 on ESPN+
This may seem like a lopsided affair on paper, but the last meeting saw the Eagles take a three-point lead in overtime with under a minute left before the Mountaineers eventually pulled out the win in Statesboro. Dustin Kerns’s group, led by frontcourt duo Tre’Von Spillers and Donovan Gregory, are the most talented team in the conference and have had recent experience in March Madness, but this is by far his best team in Boone yet. The Mountaineers know what to expect, and while the Eagles should be feisty per usual, App State is the unquestioned favorite.
George’s pick: App State
4. Arkansas State (16-15, 11-7) vs. 5. UL-Lafayette – 3 p.m. on ESPN+
The Red Wolves of Jonesboro had an 8-1 streak in their past 9 games before getting blown out in their last regular season game by the Mountaineers in Boone. They’ve looked much better since February rolled around, which is important to note when discussing basketball games being held in March. But the Cajuns do hold the advantage in the season series, with a 2-0 sweep. The third game is what matters, and while I don’t believe in the statement “it’s hard to beat a team three times”, I’m sticking with the team playing at a higher level right now, and that’s Caleb Fields (the Sun Belt APG leader by over 1.0 per game) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves.
George’s pick: Arkansas State
3. Troy (20-11, 13-5) vs. 11. Texas State – 6 p.m. on ESPN+
Troy was picked 8th in the preseason media poll, but now Scott Cross’s group, led by Christyon Eugene and Myles Rigsby, have found themselves 3rd in the conference, trailing just national media darlings App State and James Madison. A stout defense (111th in KenPom) can be attributed to that jump. But we can’t overlook the Bobcats of San Marcos, who just defeated Troy in these teams’ last regular season game, 82-79, when Davion Sykes scored 30. Isn’t it crazy that this tournament may have two separate rematches of the last games of the season in which the margin was 82-79? That’s some two nickels type scenario. But if one wishes to find a Cinderella team in the Sun Belt tournament this year, look to Texas State, who is much better than the average 11 seed.
George’s pick: Texas State
2. James Madison (28-3, 15-3) vs. 7. Georgia State – 8:30 p.m. on ESPN+
With respect to Georgia State, the Dukes are simply the better team. They swept the Panthers this year by an average margin of victory of 13 points, and hold the edge in basically every predictive metric of choice. Terrence Edwards and Co. will be simply too much.
George’s pick: James Madison
Semifinals – Sun., Mar. 10
1. App State vs. 4. Arkansas State – 6 p.m. on ESPN+
Who else but the ‘Neers? Hypothetically, in this scenario, Arkansas State. But we have an unprecedented third potential rematch of the last games of the regular season if this were to come to fruition. App State is fresh off of beating the Red Wolves 80-57 in the regular season finale, and there’s little reason to think Arkansas State is 23 points better than they were last week, even on a neutral court.
George’s pick: 1. App State
2. James Madison vs. 11. Texas State – 8:30 p.m. on ESPN+
If one needs a barometer for how this hypothetical would go, simply check the box score of the most recent matchup between the two teams. The Dukes committed just five turnovers and led by 23 with six minutes to go in Harrisonburg. The glass shoe breaks here and sets up the heavyweight final.
George’s pick: James Madison
Championship – Mon., Mar. 11
1. App State vs. 2. James Madison – 7 p.m. on ESPN2
This is the matchup everyone has been waiting for. Or, rather, the rematch everyone has been waiting for. Of the Dukes’ three losses this year, two have come at the hands of App State, who won in both Boone and Harrisonburg. The metrics (JMU is 61st in the latest KenPom ratings, App State is 72nd) go with the Dukes, but the vibes are in favor of the Mountaineers, who have the defensive mettle to stop Auburn and pass the eye test. (Also don’t forget that they have beaten JMU twice already!) I’m siding with the vibes. (And additional shoutout to Justin Abson. Absolute baller.)
George’s pick: 1. App State