George Bagwell gives his Big Ten basketball power rankings heading into week 14 of the 2023 season.
Matchup of the week: Northwestern vs. Nebraska
Sneaky good matchup of the week: Iowa vs. Minnesota
All games listed are EST.
Welcome to the third episode of Big Ten Power Rankings brought to you by the author. I mean this with absolutely zero shade, just a bit of curiosity, but I feel like there’s a few really good teams in this league and a bunch of NIT bids. Not that there’s anything wrong with the NIT. It used to be the most prestigious tournament in all of the land.
I’ve noticed the Midwest has quite the affinity for professional football, whether it’s the Bears, Packers, Vikings, Lions, Colts, Bengals, or Browns. I don’t really have a team, so in an effort to relate to my new audience, I will pledge my allegiance to all seven teams. I understand that it’s a risky strategy that could turn all of my readers against me, but it’s a risk the author has to take.
Last week’s recap, right here; The Boilermakers cannot be stopped, only slowed. Michigan has not looked like wolverines lately, Nebrasketball is so back, the Gophers pulled through in honor of their groundhog brethren, (are gophers and groundhogs the same thing?) and the Terps made me look foolish for putting them in the top-5 last week. The author wishes not to be reminded of that by anyone other than himself. The Badgers are, unfortunately, mortal, while the Illini can’t afford to keep playing with their food and Rutgers has a 297-rank margin between their KenPom defensive and offensive efficiencies. Northwestern has been ejected, Izzo is gearing up for March again, Ohio State is twinning with Michigan, Indiana needs Jimmy, and Penn State is alive and thriving. Iowa. That is all. Big Ten Power Rankings, the episode after the episode after the pilot.
1. Purdue Boilermakers
Last week’s ranking: 1 (-)
Record: 21-2 (10-2)
Last week: W vs. Northwestern (105-96), W at #6 Wisconsin (75-69)
Next week: vs. Indiana (Feb. 10 – 6:30 p.m.)
Quality wins: Marquette, Tennessee, Illinois, Alabama, Gonzaga, Northwestern, at Wisconsin
Bad losses: N/A
Seed projection: 1 seed (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS Sports)
Close, close, close. Purdue ended up with two quality wins last week, even if it took some extra sweating than what was thought needed. The first win, at home against Northwestern, went to OT before the Boilermakers blew the game open in the final frame. Purdue trailed by 5 late and entered as -14.5 favorites. Maybe Northwestern is just Purdue’s kryptonite. But, unlike Northwestern can claim, Purdue won the game. And, later on in the week, Purdue claimed a win over Wisconsin. Another close one, but still a clutch road win against arguably the second-best team in the conference. Lance Jones and Braden Smith combined for 39 points against the Badgers. Shoutout to those two. I also think it’s funny that this was one of Edey’s “off-days” and he still went for 18-13.
This week is a single-game week for the now-unquestioned best team in the Big Ten right now. The opponent is arguably not the best, as the Hoosiers make the trip up Highway 231 (told y’all I was learning) to take on the red-hot Boilermakers. Serious question, but how hot are boilers supposed to get? Can one overheat? Could one, hypothetically, get really hot in February and March and then overheat and break on March 22 in the first round of the NCAA tournament?
2. Illinois Fighting Illini
Last week’s ranking: 4 (+2)
Record: 17-5 (8-3)
Last week: W at Ohio State (87-75), W vs. Nebraska (87-84)
Next week: at Michigan State (Feb. 10 – 2 p.m.)
Quality wins: FAU, Northwestern, Nebraska
Bad losses: N/A
Seed projection: 3 seed (CBS Sports), 4 seed (Matty Brackets, ESPN), 6 seed (Waldo’s Watchlist)
The Illini moved up two spots in these Big Ten Power Rankings, courtesy of teams No. 2 and No. 3 going a combined 0-4 last week. Spoiler alert, but if Nebrasketball had closed the deal against Illinois, we wouldn’t be talking about the Illini in the No. 2 spot right now. But, with a tad more drama than the Ohio State road victory, Illinois did end up beating a very pesky Nebraska team. One reason was the 50-33 rebounding margin, led by Ty Rodgers with 14, while Coleman Hawkins and Marcus Domask combined for 39 points. Shoutout again to Mr. Rodgers, who also recorded a 13-10 double-double against Ohio State in Columbus.
This week, it’s a sneaky road matchup against a streaky Michigan State team. It would be unwise for the Illini to fall asleep at the wheel against Tom Izzo, and, like most weeks in the Big Ten, the road team needs to bring their A-game. No, this team doesn’t need to win the game this week. But they’d certainly like to, as well as helping keep their second-place standing in the conference. I’d say it’s a coin flip, but, as we know, there’s always a minimal chance of the coin landing on its side. I don’t know what the basketball equivalent of that would be, but maybe we’ll see this week.
3. Wisconsin Badgers
Last week’s ranking: 2 (-1)
Record: 16-6 (8-3)
Last week: L at Nebraska (72-80), L vs. #2 Purdue (69-75)
Next week: at Michigan (Feb. 7 – 7 p.m.), at Rutgers (Feb. 10 – Noon)
Quality wins: Marquette, at Michigan State, Northwestern, at Minnesota
Bad losses: at Penn State
Seed projection: 2 seed (ESPN, Matty Brackets, Waldo’s Watchlist), 3 seed (CBS Sports),
Unfortunately for the Badgers, their last win was January 26. Fortunately, a few other teams in the general area lost some key games, too, meaning Wisconsin stays in the top-three, for now at least. Last week, it was a tough road loss to the Fighting Hoibergs and a tougher loss to a very good, some would say elite, Purdue team at home. At one point in the second half following an AJ Storr bucket, ESPN gave Wisconsin a 97.8% chance to win. Nebraska gave Wisconsin 0% chance to win, coming all the way back before eventually blowing the game open in overtime. Despite 28 from Storr, Steven Crowl didn’t make a shot in 37 minutes of action, despite 13 rebounds. Next time Wisconsin plays Nebraska, (that’s TBD) they may want to guard C.J. Wilcher, who led the ‘Huskers with 22 points off the bench.
Imagine you, reader, are a Big Ten basketball team, and you’ve just lost two games in a row. You can pick any two teams in the conference to play next. I’ll give you time to pick. Did you select Michigan and Rutgers? If you did, congrats. That’s what Wisconsin has the opportunity to do this week, though they are on the road. With respect to Michigan and Rutgers, that really shouldn’t matter. Anything short of 2-0 this week is a disappointment.
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Last week’s ranking: 6 (+2)
Record: 16-7 (6-6)
Last week: W vs. #6 Wisconsin (80-72), L at #14 Illinois (84-87)
Next week: at Northwestern (Feb. 7 – 9 p.m.), vs. Michigan (Feb. 10 – 6:30 p.m.)
Quality wins: Purdue, at Kansas State, Northwestern, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Bad losses: at Rutgers
Seed projection: 8 seed (Matty Brackets), 10 seed (CBS Sports, ESPN), First Four Out (Waldo’s Watchlist)
We were oh-so-close to having Nebraska break into the top-three this week. The ‘Huskers stormed back against Illinois after being down 10 with just a few minutes left. Forcing overtime, they just couldn’t get it done on the road in extra time. There’s nothing to be ashamed about though, as that was a perfectly good performance. And we can’t forget the first game of the week, a massive home win over Wisconsin, also in overtime, after trailing by 16 at halftime. C.J. Wilcher played the hero. With wins like that, it’s only a matter of time before Nebrasketball starts getting the recognition they deserve.
This week, there’s a “prove it” game followed by a “please don’t mess this up” game. The first? A road matchup against the Wildcats of Northwestern. The second? A should-be-easy home game against Juwan Howard and the Wolverines. Get past the Wildcats (who Nebrasketball has already beaten) and the ‘Huskers are staring at an 18-7 overall record in the face. What a time to be alive in Nebraska.
5. Northwestern Wildcats
Last week’s ranking: 3 (-2)
Record: 15-7 (6-5)
Last week: L at Purdue (96-105), L at Minnesota (66-75)
Next week: vs. Nebraska (Feb. 7 – 9 p.m.), vs. Penn State (Feb. 11 – 1 p.m.)
Quality wins: Purdue, Dayton, Michigan State, Illinois
Bad losses: Chicago State
Seed projection: 7 seed (ESPN, Matty Brackets), 10 seed (Waldo’s Watchlist), 11 seed (CBS Sports)
Just when we were singing the praises of the Wildcats, they went and had a slight 0-2 week. We’d move them up after the Purdue road loss in overtime, because that’s objectively impressive. The only reason they dropped two spots was the next game, in which they lost to (a tournament team) Minnesota on the road, also in overtime. Seems to me like there’s just a lot of overtime games in the Big Ten. I’m not complaining, though, it’s free basketball. Chris Collins was complaining, though, at least at the end of the Purdue game. I don’t blame the guy, because I’m going to assume it’s very frustrating to play Purdue. Shoutout Boo Buie, who had (yet another) solid game against the Boilermakers with 25 points. In the overtime loss to Minnesota, Buie led the team with 20.
Coming up is a nice little homestand in which the Wildcats face off against a very underrated Nebraska team and a not-so-underrated-but-playing-well Penn State team. These are the weeks that Northwestern can use to make statements. Statements like “we are a top-4 team in one of the best leagues in the country” or along those lines. I’m currently listening to “This Must Be The Place (Naive Melody)” by the Talking Heads. Not related to the topic at hand, I just felt the need to promote that song.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last week’s ranking: 9 (+3)
Record: 14-7 (5-5)
Last week: W vs. Northwestern (75-66)
Next week: vs. Michigan State (Feb. 6 – 9 p.m.), at Iowa (Feb. 11 – 3 p.m.)
Quality wins: Nebraska, Northwestern
Bad losses: Missouri
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
First off. Minnesota is a tournament team. The haters don’t want to hear it, but I think this team is certainly worthy of an at-large bid. Ben Johnson is saving his job, even after the four-game slide earlier this year. This is a talented team, and they deserve the same type of love that Michigan State is getting. Tell me why 14-8 MSU is oh-so-much better than 14-7 Minnesota. Is it coach and brand recognition? Maybe predictive metrics? Maybe the predictive metrics are still overloaded with preseason bias. Whatever it is, the Gophers have a chance to make a statement at home this week against the Spartans, who travel into Minneapolis. Also of note, but Dawson Garcia deserves a shoutout for his performance in the overtime win over Northwestern.
Then, it’s a road matchup against an Iowa team that has not looked all-too-impressive recently. A 2-0 week would do wonders for this team’s bubble hopes, as well as proving this author right. They’re a tournament team, y’all.
7. Michigan State Spartans
Last week’s ranking: 7 (-)
Record: 14-8 (6-5)
Last week: W vs. Michigan (81-62), W vs. Maryland (63-54)
Next week: at Minnesota (Feb. 6 – 9 p.m.), vs. #10 Illinois (Feb. 10 – 2 p.m.)
Quality wins: Baylor, Indiana State
Bad losses: N/A
Seed projection: 8 seed (ESPN), Last Four In (CBS Sports, Matty Brackets), Next Four Out (Waldo’s Watchlist)
Is Izzo preparing for March? The Spartans have now won 5 of their last 6 games. I will relent that the competition (Maryland x2, Michigan, Rutgers, Minnesota) haven’t exactly been world-beaters, but you can only play the schedule you’re given, so there’s that. A 14-8 record shouldn’t really be indicative of the No. 17 team on KenPom, but I’ll give Ken a pass for that. (No way this team is better than Creighton or Kentucky, but I digress.) Last week, Michigan and Maryland fell at home, with Jaden Akins and Malik Hall leading the team in points in each respective game.
This week, it’s going to be a bit tougher. First, a road matchup against the Gophers, who should be motivated following an earlier road loss to the Spartans. Then, Izzo’s crew draws Illinois at home. That one should be interesting, and the crowd will be raucous. What should fans expect this week? In classic Power Rankings fashion, I’m hedging and predicting a 1-1 week with this team staying close to, but on the right side of, the bubble.
8. Maryland Terrapins
Last week’s ranking: 5 (-3)
Record: 13-9 (5-6)
Last week: L at Michigan State (54-63)
Next week: vs. Rutgers (Feb. 6 – 6:30 p.m.), at Ohio State (Feb. 10 – 4 p.m.)
Quality wins: at Illinois, at Iowa, Nebraska
Bad losses: UAB, Davidson
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
Bubble Maryland was fun, but it’s back to reality for the Terps this week. I probably would have slid them further down in the rankings, but I’m feeling nice this week. If y’all don’t want to talk about the loss to MSU, we don’t have to. I’m giving the option of opting out. Instead, we can talk about this week’s slate of games. Surprise, surprise, but I’m jumping back on the Maryland wagon. Home against Rutgers and an Ohio State road matchup. I’m expecting 2-0 this week, y’all, and that would mean a 15-9 Maryland team, a far cry from when this team was 1-3 to start the season. Jahmir Young, in a perfect world, would be Big Ten Player of the Year, but Zach Edey has that in the bag, unfortunately for the fans of the Terps.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions
Last week’s ranking: 12 (+3)
Record: 11-11 (5-6)
Last week: W at Rutgers (61-46), W at Indiana (85-71)
Next week: vs. Iowa (Feb. 8 – 7 p.m.), at Northwestern (Feb. 11 – 1 p.m.)
Quality wins: Wisconsin
Bad losses: Bucknell, Georgia Tech, VCU
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
Red alert! Wake the masses! Penn State is back in business, and they’re standing on it, too. Standing on business is the best way to describe last week’s slate of action for Penn State. The Nittany Lions first beat Rutgers, on the road, by 15, then beat Indiana, also on the road, by 14. The defense held Rutgers to just a 5.9 3PT% (1-17) in the win, and Ace Baldwin Jr. led the way with 15 points. Just three Rutgers players scored more than 7 points on the day. Against Indiana, Penn State outscored the Hoosiers by 18 in the second half, with Ace Baldwin Jr. (22) again leading the way in points. Penn State shot 54.5% from deep, while Indiana made just 26.3% of their shots from deep. That’s a recipe for winning any basketball game.
This week, the first game of the slate offers a good chance at keeping the good vibes going with a home game against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have simply not looked good recently, not even to the level of being an NIT team. Then, however, the road gets tougher with a road game in Evanston against the Wildcats. The line could be ending up around the -9.5-11.5 range, and Penn State will be big underdogs. But this team has shown, recently, the ability to win on the road. So, yes, there’s definitely still a chance of a win there and a 2-0 week.
10. Indiana Hoosiers
Last week’s ranking: 11 (+1)
Record: 13-9 (5-6)
Last week: W vs. Iowa (74-68), L vs. Penn State (71-85)
Next week: at Ohio State (Feb. 6 – 7 p.m.), at #2 Purdue (Feb. 10 – 8 p.m.)
Quality wins: Minnesota
Bad losses: at Rutgers, Penn State
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
When I wrote about NIT teams in the intro, I had Indiana on my mind. They have the classic NIT resume, with around a .500 record in a middle-tier Power 6 conference and considerable recruiting acumen. They just beat another NIT bubble team (Iowa) then lost in embarrassing fashion to Penn State, giving up 85 points at home to one of the not-as-good offenses in the conference. We do need to shoutout Anthony Leal, however, who scored 13 points, a career-high, in the win over Iowa.
This week, it’s on the road for the Hoosiers, and they’re hoping to make some waves or at least play spoiler. First off, it’s to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. Then, a very big, tall test. Indiana must face off against Purdue on the road. We have hope here at the Big Ten Power Rankings HQ for a win over Ohio State, but I will move Indiana up to No. 1 in these rankings if they manage to beat Purdue. I’m sorry, I just don’t see it happening this year. Maybe next year.
11. Iowa Hawkeyes
Last week’s ranking: 8 (-3)
Record: 13-9 (5-6)
Last week: L at Indiana (68-74), W vs. Ohio State (79-77)
Next week: at Penn State (Feb. 8 – 7 p.m.), vs. Minnesota (Feb. 11 – 3 p.m.)
Quality wins: Seton Hall, Nebraska
Bad losses: Michigan
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
I don’t even know what to say at this point. I don’t follow Iowa basketball Twitter closely, so I don’t have a great read on what the fanbase is saying, but I would imagine they are not feeling the best about this team right now. One could argue that Iowa actually played better in the road loss to Indiana than they did in the home win over Ohio State in which they let the Buckeyes score 77+ points on the road for the first time since December. This Iowa defense has always been a work in progress, but the offense is struggling a tad now, too. Players not named “Sandfort” or “Perkins” combined for just 20 points against Indiana. Is that bad? It ain’t good.
This week, the Hawkeyes have a confusing week. First, a road game against Penn State, then a home game against Minnesota. Neither game should be out-of-hand, but they’re definitely not pushovers. Both games just seem like really even contests, and this week could produce 0-2, 1-1, or a 2-0 week without any surprises.
12. Ohio State Buckeyes
Last week’s ranking: 10 (-2)
Record: 13-9 (3-8)
Last week: L vs. #14 Illinois (75-87), L at Iowa (77-79)
Next week: vs. Indiana (Feb. 6 – 7 p.m.), vs. Maryland (Feb. 10 – 4 p.m.)
Quality wins: Alabama
Bad losses: at Michigan, at Penn State
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
It’s slip-n-slide time in Columbus, with emphasis on both sliding and slipping. The Buckeyes are officially toast, and at the risk of a margarine pun, “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Better.” Typing that sentence out was one of the most painful sentences of my writing career, and may have lowered my self-confidence unmeasurably. But my brain isn’t quite working today, so we’re going to keep it in and focus on the losses. Last week, they were to Illinois at home and, in a slightly better performance, a two point loss to Iowa on the road. I can’t pretend like Iowa is a tournament contender, but there’s no denying it was a step in the right direction for this team, as dystopian as that may sound. 4 of 5 starters scored in double figures against the Hawkeyes.
This week, Ohio State remains home with two absolutely winnable games against Indiana and Maryland. I do, personally, think it’s too late for a tournament push, but the Buckeyes definitely have a solid chance to sweep the week and grab some momentum. To put it bluntly, they need to. They don’t have another option, at least if they want to sniff the postseason.
13. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Last week’s ranking: 13 (-)
Record: 11-10 (3-7)
Last week: L vs. Penn State (46-61), W at Michigan (69-59)
Next week: at Maryland (Feb. 6 – 6:30 p.m.), vs. #11 Wisconsin (Feb. 10 – Noon)
Quality wins: at Seton Hall, Nebraska
Bad Losses: Penn State
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. It’s Dickens time for Rutgers, who looked horrible for 75% of the week but still managed a ten-point conference road victory. That’s impressive. I know it was Michigan, but flowers are due where flowers are due. By “flowers” we’re also including the fact that Rutgers is not last in these rankings. Had they lost, they would’ve been, mostly because of an ugly home loss to Penn State, who remains frustratingly unpredictable, the Big Ten’s version of a microwave Hot Pocket. Derek Simpson scored 14 second-half points against Michigan to salvage the week, and the second half in general was just a quite enjoyable watch for Rutgers fans, a sight that had become quite rare this season.
There’s some toughness ahead for Rutgers. First, a road game against Maryland on the east coast, or at least close to the coast. I often forget that Rutgers is more east than Maryland. Sorry, I’m not from the area. Then, it’s a home game against Wisconsin, and I’m sure the Badgers will be more than motivated after last week’s two losses. An 0-2 week is expected, but anything else is simply best described as a welcome surprise.
14. Michigan Wolverines
Last week’s ranking: 14 (-)
Record: 7-15 (2-9)
Last week: L at Michigan State (62-81), L vs. Rutgers (59-69)
Next week: vs. #11 Wisconsin (Feb. 7 – 7 p.m.), at Nebraska (Feb. 10 – 6:30 p.m.)
Quality wins: at St. John’s
Bad losses: Long Beach State, Penn State, Rutgers
Seed Projections: OUT (Waldo’s Watchlist, Matty Brackets, ESPN, CBS)
I miss John Beilein. Not as a Michigan fan, because I’m not, but just the vibes. Jordan Poole was special. But as a neutral observer, I was also a bit saddened by Rob Gray getting knocked out on a buzzer-beater. I watched it live and it must’ve been heartbreaking to be a member of that team and lose in March on a heave. Imagine having a job at Chick-Fil-A and you’re competing with a new hire to box nuggets, with the winner keeping the job. You’re winning and then this kid just chucks a nugget through the drive-thru window into the box just as time runs out, taking your job and sending you home. That’s about what I think it would feel like. Michigan lost by double digits not just on the road to Michigan State, but also at home to Rutgers. I don’t really have much more to talk about on that front. Just nuggets of pity.
This week, it very well could be more of the same for the Wolverines. First, a home stay against a (probably) angry Wisconsin team. Then, off to the middle of the country to take on Nebrasketball. I have a hard time thinking that this team is capable of pulling off either upset. Now, of course, I could be wrong. I could be subscribing to a dangerous method of thinking by just disregarding Michigan’s upcoming games. However, I will do just that. Michigan has to show me they’re capable of a competitive game. The ball is in their court. That’s actually their problem, now that I think about it. We’ll see what happens.