March is years away, it feels like. April? Decades. But one team will be cutting down the nets this spring, and believe it or not, we’ve got a pretty good idea of which teams can do so, at least according to pre-existing trends.
In the past 19 years, almost two decades, every champion has appeared in the top 12 of the week six AP poll, and, with the exception of 2014 UConn, (we love Shabazz Napier) finished inside the top-20 in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency and top-25 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. Over the past 11 seasons, the champion has shot from beyond-the-arc at a rate over 33.3%.
Starting with the top 12 of the week six AP Poll, the field is cut down to just a dozen teams. These teams, in order of rank, are Arizona, Kansas, Purdue, Houston, UConn, Baylor, Marquette, Creighton, UNC, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Big congrats to these teams, but there’s more criteria to sort through.
Moving on to the top-20 in the KenPom offensive efficiency rankings, four teams are getting the ax. Kansas currently ranks 34th, 14 spots lower than what is required per the trends. Meanwhile, Oklahoma and Tennessee rank 33th and 30th, respectively, knocking them out too. Gonzaga barely misses out, as they currently rank 21st. It’s close, but it’s just not 20th.
That leaves us with Arizona, Purdue, Houston, UConn, Baylor, Marquette, Creighton, and UNC. Time to bust out the defensive metrics. Baylor falls far behind in the KenPom defensive efficiency ratings, currently ranking 73rd. They’re out. Bad news for the Tar Heels. They’re out of the running, too, with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 47th.
Where does this leave us? With just six teams in the running: Arizona, Purdue, Houston, UConn, Marquette, and Creighton. That’s three teams from the Big East, and one each from the Big 12, Pac-12 (RIP), and Big 10. There is one more criteria to cut the list with, that being 3PT%. College basketball has been increasingly influenced by the deep ball, and every champion since 2011 UConn has converted from behind-the-arc at a 33.3% rate or better. Where do these teams stack up? Purdue leads the group with a 40.3 3PT%, followed by Arizona at 38.9%. Creighton is close behind at 38.7%, then, after a sizable gap, comes Houston at 35.4%, Connecticut at 34.0%, and finally Marquette at 33.8%.
All six teams fit the recent criteria for perimeter success, even if a few just make the cut. What does that mean for these teams, and why are they the programs that, in mid-December, have the best chance to win in April? A per-team breakdown is best. Before that, a note on exceptions.
There were also two teams to rank within the top-20/top-25 mark in the KenPom efficiency rankings that weren’t in the top 12 of the week six AP poll. One of these two (BYU and Auburn) teams, BYU, fits the required statistical criteria (shooting 37.2% from deep) but landed at no. 18 in the poll, likely due to their loss to Utah. Auburn currently sports a not-so-elite 3PT% of 33.0%, so they’re out of the picture, even with their high ceiling. Beating six of the best teams in the country in a row is near-impossible without a consistent, reliable perimeter game.
Six of the teams in the top 12 got axed because one of their adjusted offensive or defensive efficiencies weren’t up to par, but all of those six fit at least one of the top-20 offense or top-25 defensive ratings. Maybe Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Baylor, UNC, and Gonzaga will figure out their respective imperfections before March rolls around. After all, they’ve got literal months to make changes. But for the purpose of this exercise, the criteria is rigid, and only six teams currently fit the optimal statistical thresholds for the past 11 NCAA champions, and those teams are Arizona, Purdue, Houston, UConn, Marquette, and Creighton.
Arizona– The Wildcats haven’t won it all since 1997, when Mike Bibby, Jason Terry, and Michael Dickerson were in Tucson. (So was former Memphis and Georgia Tech head coach Josh Pastner.) This year, they’re led by a group of starters that are all averaging 12+ PPG. Caleb Love (UNC), Oumar Ballo (Gonzaga), and Keshad Johnson (SDSU) have all reached the Final Four before with other programs, while Kylan Boswell and Pelle Larsson have a combined 123 games of experience with the Wildcats. The quintet of offensive options all have the ability to change the outlook of any game, and Arizona has several very-talented options (Jaden Bradley, KJ Lewis, Montiejus Krivas, Paulius Marauskas, and Filip Borvicanin) off the bench.
This team is elite on the boards (43.9 RPG), can shoot from inside (57.5 2PT%) or outside the arc (38.9 3PT%), and is mostly stout on defense, too, even though the team’s main strengths reside on the offensive side of the ball. The offense and team breakout is similar to Alabama last year, just without the hyper-fast tempo and off-the-court issues. Arizona has a good case to be considered the most complete team in the country this year, and while we haven’t forgotten the loss to Princeton, the weaknesses that led to that loss have been ironed out. The chance that Arizona cuts down the nets this April is much higher than the chances of them getting bounced in the first round for a second straight year.
Purdue– Sure, it starts and ends with 7’4 Zach Edey, but let’s give the rest of the team some love. The other Boilermakers are hitting their threes at an elite rate, with five players hitting 44.4% or more of their threes. A lack of threes (along with a fantastic gameplan by Tobin Anderson and all-around great FDU performance) led to their second-consecutive embarrassing early exit from the Big Dance last season. But Matt Painter is determined to make up for Purdue’s previous spring-time struggles with a very strong team this year. They’re not perfect (they’ve already lost to Northwestern again), but if Purdue wants to win a title, it seems like this is their best chance.
Please don’t make me put up the “Zach Edey averages more PPG than every other 7’3+ player in college basketball combined” chart, because I will put it up. Questioning Edey’s NBA potential is valid, as is questioning his prowess outside the protected area. What’s not valid is chalking up his dominance to “he’s just tall.” Plenty of players are “just tall” and none of them are making nearly the impact that Edey has made with Purdue. Clearly, what Edey does in the paint works, and if a team doesn’t like that, they can simply gameplan to stop it. Until then, Edey will be continuing his chase for his second-consecutive Wooden Award.
Houston– Houston was a popular pick to win it all last year, especially with the home-court advantage if they were to make it to the Final Four. They, unfortunately for fans of Cougars and Jim Nantz, met Miami in the Sweet Sixteen at the wrong time, but they’re just as good this year, even without Marcus Sasser, Tramon Mark, and Jarace Walker. The Cougar defense is currently the best in the nation, and going up against Kelvin Sampson’s group is akin to trying to score against a brick wall. The gap between the team’s number-one-rated adjusted defensive efficiency and the next-closest team is larger than the gap between that second team and the 14th-highest team.
On offense, the Cougs are led by LJ Cryer (no surprise) and Emanuel Sharp (a nice surprise) who’re combining to average 31.3 PPG. Five players are averaging between 5-9 PPG, but one of those (Terrance Arceneaux) is unfortunately out for the year with a torn Achilles. Cryer, Sharp, and Jamal Shead are all shooting better than 35% from deep, while Shead is top-20 in the nation in APG with 6.4 per game. Houston has 3 of the top 5 leaders in the Big-12 in defensive rating, with J’Wan Roberts, Shead, and Sharp ranking 1st, 2nd, and 5th, respectively. Houston’s defense has the power to stop any team in the nation, and the offense is certainly capable of scoring plenty. Houston has never won the Big Dance, but they made the final in back-to-back years in the Phi Slama Jama days. Is this the year? According to the trends, there’s an elevated chance.
UConn– A team hasn’t repeated as national champs since Billy Donovan’s 2006-07 Gator teams. Dan Hurley might have the best chance to do so in recent years with this squad. While Adama Sanogo is gone, and Andre Jackson and Jordan Hawkins are off to the NBA, this squad has already proved that it’s able to compete with any team in the nation. With early wins over Gonzaga, North Carolina, Texas, and Indiana, all by double-digits, it’s clear the Huskies are still the real deal. Tristen Newton is an absolute star in the backcourt, and he should be getting Wooden Award chatter. Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan are possibly the best frontcourt duo in the Big East, while transfer Cam Spencer and freshmen Stephon Castle and Solomon Ball have filled the backcourt void left by Hawkins and Jackson.
The Huskies are a very tall, physical team, with all five of their leading scorers standing between 6’4-7’2. Their core strengths are limiting turnovers (just 9.7 per game), interior defense (41.2 2PT% for opponents), sharing the ball (18.6 APG), and inside-the-arc efficiency (64.0 2PT%). Stephon Castle missed a few games following a knee procedure, but the team’s relatively healthy and they’re not a squad that any coach is going to want to play against in March. Call up Trilly, because there’s a solid chance this Hurley Husky squad is repeating like a scratched Skynyrd vinyl.
Marquette– Marquette hasn’t looked elite in every game so far, but they’ve had stretches where they’ve looked like the best team in the nation, and the metrics back that up. The Golden Eagles have lost to Purdue and Wisconsin, but they have an argument to be the most talented team in the Big East this year. Led by senior Tyler Kolek, Shaka Smart’s group also has Kam Jones and Oso Ighodaro, and that trio is combining for 44.3 PPG. Marquette isn’t efficient rebounding the ball, and their interior defense isn’t all that great. With that said, they’re all-around solid on both sides of the ball, and they have a deep 8-man rotation that can tire out opponents and not face significant dropoff when one or two of Kolek, Jones, and Ighodaro are out of the game.
The Golden Eagles have played a tough non-con schedule, which bodes well for March. They’re making over 60% of their twos, placing them 9th in the nation in that category. One knock on Shaka Smart has been his lack of postseason success outside VCU, but this version of Marquette has the ability to put that to rest. Whichever team wins the Big East will have considerable momentum, and while it could be the team listed above and below Marquette in this list, the Golden Eagles are a good bet, too.
Creighton– Omaha is rocking this year, and there’s a good reason why. It’s Creighton basketball, by the way. With the return of Baylor Scheierman, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Trey Alexander, the vibes were always going to be sunny, but Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth has helped get over the loss of Arthur Kaluma in the portal, (Kansas State) averaging 8.5 PPG and shooting 38.9% from deep. Mason Miller has started every game and leads the Bluejays with a 59.4 3PT%.
Creighton shoots the three ball at a high volume (29.8 attempts per game) and makes them at a high rate (38.7%). While they’re not forcing turnovers often, (their mark of 3.1 SPG is last in all of D-1) their defense is still good enough to bend and not break while the Bluejays sink three after three on the offensive end. If there’s tiers in this six-team group, it’s Arizona, Purdue, Houston, Marquette, UConn, and then the Blue Jays just a step back. That’s not to say that Creighton can’t win it all. They fit the criteria for doing so, which only a handful of other teams can say. It’s just that they barely do fit the criteria defensively, ranking 25th in the latest KenPom defensive efficiency rankings. It could be argued that last year’s team was better than this year’s edition. But ultimately, it wouldn’t be all that of a shock to see this team in the Final Four, especially if the offense is clicking.
Overall
On one hand, it’s entirely possible that the week six AP poll top-12 trend is complete luck and it’s due to end any year at this point. After all, both of the last finals featured teams that weren’t even ranked in their respective week six AP polls. On the other hand, those two finals were won by teams that did fit the criteria. And one important facet of the timing of the week six AP poll: it rewards teams that played well against high-quality non-conference opponents, the exact same type of competition they’ll be facing in the Big Dance.
Who’s to argue against a trend that has worked for almost two decades, combined with another trend that has worked 18 of those 19 years and another that’s indicated the past 11 champions? Even 2013-2014 Connecticut, who entered as a 7-seed, ranked in the top 12 of their week six AP poll. Houston, Purdue, Creighton, Arizona, Marquette, and UConn all have proven themselves against tough opponents this year, something that will serve them well in March.
Last year, the week six AP poll top 12 included Purdue, Virginia, UConn, Alabama, Houston, Tennessee, Texas, Kansas, Arizona, Arkansas, Baylor, and Duke, in order. That group ended up with 3 first-round exits, 3 second-round exits, 4 Sweet Sixteen exits, 1 Elite Eight exit, and the eventual champion. Only 2 of those 12 teams made it to the Elite Eight, just 1 went to the Final Four, and yet that team (UConn) ended up winning it all. That’s a testament to the unpredictability of March Madness and the fact that a team has to win six consecutive games. March is madness.
That’s what makes this set of criteria so magical. The sheer preciseness of which this data set has handled the inherent craziness of a 64-team free-for-all needs to be properly commended, and, statistically, it’s not due to end this year. Even though not every member of the week six AP poll top 12 club is going to enter March on fire, at least a few of them will be. And one of those few is going to win it all. Is it going to be one of Arizona, Purdue, Houston, UConn, Marquette, or Creighton? Take it to the bank.
- Below is the week six AP poll top 12 complete with the most recent KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, as well as the 3PT% of each NCAA champion since 2012.
- Arizona (O- 6, D- 3)
- Kansas (O- 34, D- 6)
- Purdue (O- 2, D- 11)
- Houston (O- 17, D-1)
- UConn (O- 3, D- 12)
- Baylor (O- 4, D- 73)
- Marquette (O- 12, D- 19)
- Creighton (O- 11, D- 25)
- UNC (O- 10, D- 47)
- Gonzaga (O- 21, D-22)
- Oklahoma (O- 33, D- 8)
- Tennessee (O- 30, D- 5)
2023- UConn- 36.3%
2022- Kansas- 36.1%
2021- Baylor- 41.3%
2019- Virginia- 39.5%
2018- Villanova- 40.1%
2017- North Carolina- 35.5%
2016- Villanova- 36.2%
2015- Duke- 38.7%
2014- UConn- 38.7%
2013- Louisville- 33.3%
2012- Kentucky- 37.8%